Bahrain and Kuwait secretly dispatched warplanes to strike military targets inside Iran earlier this month, marking the two small Persian Gulf states' first direct retaliation against Tehran in a conflict now grinding through its fifth month, according to people familiar with the matter.
The airstrikes, carried out in the early hours, targeted drone- and missile-storage depots and other military sites inside Iranian territory. The United Arab Emirates, which conducted dozens of strikes against Iran from the war's outset through a ceasefire announced in April, provided intelligence on targets and defensive air cover for the operation — a sign of budding Arab military cooperation against Tehran.
The strikes reflect the increasingly difficult position of Gulf Arab states, which have absorbed the bulk of Iran's retaliatory punishment throughout the war and now face the prospect of a prolonged standoff that threatens their security, economies, and very governing models.
A Region Under Siege
The retaliation came after weeks of Iranian strikes focused on Bahrain and Kuwait, both of which host American military installations. Kuwait's Foreign Ministry said Sunday that Iran had targeted a power plant and a water desalination facility, calling the attack a threat to its citizens and a dangerous escalation.
The situation deteriorated further on Friday, when sirens sounded across Bahrain, Jordanian armed forces intercepted seven Iranian missiles and six drones, and Kuwait announced that its air defenses had downed multiple "hostile" targets from Iran. The attacks followed overnight Iranian strikes against Kuwait and U.S. military infrastructure in Jordan.
A new front also opened this week when Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia struck two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb strait and declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, compounding the disruption already caused by Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
Travel Disruptions and Warnings
The escalating violence prompted the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem to warn American citizens on Friday to prepare for possible flight cancellations, airspace closures, and other travel disruptions. Ben-Gurion Airport temporarily suspended takeoffs, though officials attributed the closure to routine runway maintenance.
Gulf oil exports have been crippled, tourism has dried up, and investment is under mounting pressure across the region. Arab governments that had hoped for a swift end to the war now confront the reality of an extended conflict with no sign of either side backing down.
"The war continuing in the manner that it is playing out right now is their worst-case scenario," said Dina Esfandiary, a Middle East analyst at Bloomberg Economics. "It does not give them the opportunity to rebuild and maintain their image as a haven for stability in an unstable region. It affects their very models."
While Oman and Qatar have shown little appetite for confrontation with Tehran, and Saudi Arabia — which joined the UAE in attacking Iran earlier in the war — is reportedly re-evaluating its position, analysts say the Gulf states are edging toward a more confrontational posture.
"I think Gulf countries are beginning to realize that this war will continue for some time now," said Umer Karim, a researcher focused on Gulf geopolitics at the University of Birmingham. "This eventually means that they would have to confront Iran openly."
Some governments, Karim added, are even beginning to countenance the idea of regime change in Tehran, "because existing in the same neighborhood with this Iranian regime will effectively mean subservience to Iranian hegemony."
The UAE's Foreign Ministry condemned the attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, saying it "stands in full solidarity with these states and reaffirms its support for all measures aimed at safeguarding their security and stability," while calling for a reduction in regional tensions and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.