The Levant Files

Speaking at the 26th Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek on Monday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian offered Washington a conditional return to the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, the ceasefire framework signed on June 18 after roughly three months of Pakistani and Qatari mediation. If the United States resumes its obligations under the document, he said, Iran will reciprocate immediately. American compliance, he added, lasted under two weeks; Iran's responses since have been proportionate. The offer came wrapped in a victory narrative. Pezeshkian told SCO leaders that the American and Israeli attacks of June 13, 2025 and February 28, 2026 opened a 40-day war that began with the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader, a strike on a school in Minab that killed 168 students and teachers, and an attack on a stadium in Lamerd that left 200 dead and wounded. Iran, he said, inflicted heavy strategic defeats on both attackers and forced a ceasefire the US never wan...

As Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb strain under the weight of the US-Iran war, Japan is stepping off the sidelines — leaning on Oman's mediation channel, tying Gulf resilience to its own Indo-Pacific doctrine, and quietly insuring itself against a second front in Yemen. The map of actors crowding into the Levant and Gulf crisis has, for months, followed a familiar cast: Washington and Tehran locked in an unresolved war since February 28; Ankara, Riyadh, and Islamabad drawing closer through the Mecca Pact's trilateral defense architecture; Israel recalibrating after Idlib; and the Gulf monarchies triaging tanker routes one strait at a time. This week, a new name entered the ledger — and it did not arrive as a bystander counting its losses. It arrived as a broker-in-waiting. Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi spent six days, August 17 to 22, moving between Riyadh and Muscat — his first trip to the region since the US-Israeli campaign against Iran began, and only his second Midd...

Says It Shows Region Moving Away From U.S. Security Iran on Monday offered a measured welcome to the newly signed Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, viewing the trilateral pact as evidence that regional powers are moving away from reliance on American security guarantees while reaffirming that Tehran sees no reason to view the alliance as a threat. Speaking at his weekly press conference on Journalists' Day, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said the defense pact represents a significant shift in regional security perceptions. "In a general view, we can say that this development is a sign of change in the perception of regional countries," Baghaei stated. "Regional countries, in light of the developments of the past two to three years, have come to realize that security is not a commodity that can be purchased from false dealers." Bagaei emphasized that Iran sees no reason to be concerned about the pact, noting that ...

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council sets six conditions for reopening the strait — hours after its own diplomats declared the Oman framework complete. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council declared on Saturday that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the United States “corrects its behaviour,” and attached a six-item price list to that correction. The message, issued by council secretary Mohammad-Bagher Zolghadr and timed to Iran’s Journalist’s Day, was distributed through the government information portal and the state broadcaster, and was carried within the hour by Mehr, Tasnim, Shafaqna and Tabnak. The conditions: that Washington never threaten Iran or insult the nation’s sanctities; that it permanently end its war against Iran and Iranian allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen and Iraq; that it lift the naval blockade and withdraw its naval and air forces from Iran’s periphery; that it pay in full for the damage of two wars; that it remove sanctions; and that it release...

Tehran on Monday firmly denied that it is engaged in direct negotiations with the United States, even as diplomatic efforts to defuse the standoff between the two countries continued through regional intermediaries. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei told reporters in Tehran that "there are currently no negotiations with the United States," pushing back against suggestions from Washington that a bilateral dialogue was underway. He added that Iran's engagement was instead focused on a separate channel: talks with Oman concerning the management of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. That Oman-mediated track appears to be advancing quickly. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told cabinet members on Sunday that "negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz are in their final stages" and "on the way to being finalized," according to Iran's state news agency IRNA. Araghchi's remarks came just after President Trum...

Bölge Uçurumun Kıyısından Nasıl Döndü? ABD büyükelçiliklerinin güvenlik uyarılarından Suudi Arabistan’ın devreye girmesine, İran’ın tehditlerinden Donald Trump’ın son anda verdiği mesaja kadar 1-2 Ağustos gecesi Levant ve Basra Körfezi’ni büyük bir bölgesel çatışmanın eşiğine getirdi. Ancak son anda diplomasiye dar da olsa bir alan açıldı. Tehlike henüz geçmiş değil. Washington’ın saldırıları durdurma kararı şartlara bağlı, Hürmüz Boğazı krizin merkezindeki yerini koruyor ve bölge başkentlerinde alarm durumu sürüyor.  Bölge Alarm Durumuna Geçti 1 Ağustos Cumartesi günü ABD’nin Orta Doğu’daki büyükelçilikleri, alışılmışın dışında kapsamlı güvenlik uyarıları yayımladı. Açıklamalarda, Amerikalı vatandaşlar “öngörülemeyen bir tırmanış” ihtimaline karşı uyarılarak bölgeden ayrılmayı değerlendirmeleri istendi. Bahreyn, Irak, İsrail, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Lübnan, Umman, Katar, Suudi Arabistan ve Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri’ni kapsayan uyarılar, Levant’tan Basra Körfezi’ne uzanan geniş coğrafyada A...

From the warning lights of US embassies to Saudi intervention, Iranian threats and a last-minute message from Donald Trump, the night of 1–2 August pushed the Levant and Gulf toward a major regional confrontation—then abruptly opened a narrow diplomatic exit. The danger has not passed: Washington’s strike pause is conditional, the Strait of Hormuz remains central to the dispute, and the region’s capitals remain on alert. The Region Braces On Saturday, 1 August, US embassies across the Middle East issued unusually broad security alerts, warning American citizens of possible “unforeseen escalation” and urging them to consider leaving the region. The notices covered Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—an arc stretching from the Levant to the Gulf and reflecting fears that the next US-Iran confrontation would not remain contained. The guidance was practical but stark: prepare for cancelled flights and sudden airspace restri...

While the pause in direct U.S.-Iranian strikes offers brief breathing room for Omani diplomacy, the simultaneous escalation in the Caspian Sea and Red Sea demonstrates that the conflict's strategic footprint continues to broaden across Eastern Europe and the Middle East. A fragile tactical pause took hold between the United States and Iran on Sunday following nearly two weeks of intense direct strikes, opening a narrow diplomatic window mediated by Oman. However, even as Washington and Tehran refrained from direct bombardments overnight, the conflict expanded into new territory with a dramatic Ukrainian attack on Iranian shipping in the Caspian Sea and renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi oil facilities. Pause Driven by Munition Constraints and Diplomacy For the second consecutive night, U.S. military forces paused airstrikes on targets inside Iran following 13 straight days of heavy aerial bombardment. In a mirrored response, Iranian army spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akraminia confirm...

The likelihood of direct Israeli involvement in the escalating U.S.-Iran confrontation is growing, as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran's newly revealed "Mount Pickaxe" nuclear facility "with great force," according to a report by YNET. Speaking during a historic White House meeting with Lebanese President George Aoun, Trump declared: "We will definitely attack the new site they are talking about, Mount Pickaxe. The whole story is about nuclear weapons, and now they may be trying to re-establish a site. We will hit that site too. Any site where they even think about nuclear activity, we will hit with very great force," YNET reported. The threat carries heightened significance following reports that Iran has transferred thousands of enrichment centrifuges — and possibly uranium — to the Mount Pickaxe facility. Israeli officials assess that if Trump follows through on expanding the war to target the site, the conflict would no longer remai...

Every night for the past week, the world's attention has followed the same script: American strikes on Iranian coastal and transport targets, Iranian missiles fired back at Gulf states, oil prices twitching, the Strait of Hormuz named again and again as the conflict's central prize. But buried inside the hourly bulletins of the past 24 hours is a story that deserves to be read on its own terms, not as a bullet point in a live blog — because it may prove more dangerous, in the long run, than any single round of missiles. Water has become a battlefield. And both sides are now fighting on it, in the open, without pretense. What happened in the last 12 hours In the early hours of Saturday, 18 July, U.S. Central Command confirmed a seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iranian territory, hitting what it described as surveillance sites, military logistics, underground weapons storage and maritime capabilities along the coast facing the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state television rep...

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran has reached an agreement with Oman on a mechanism for managing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while insisting that the United States will have no role in the strategic waterway. According to Al Mayadeen, Ghalibaf said Iran would proceed with implementing the navigation mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz and continue consultations with the Gulf states bordering the waterway. He added that the agreement with Muscat is based on the fifth clause of a previously signed memorandum of understanding. Ghalibaf also accused Israel of attempting to undermine the memorandum but said Iran's deterrence capabilities would prevent any renewed conflict. He reiterated that Tehran rejects the involvement of non-regional powers in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important maritime energy corridors. In related remarks cited by Al Mayadeen, Acting Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Majid Ebnolre...

Writing for the  Al Mayadeen  Jamal Wakim stresses that US President Donald Trump has once again rattled the Gulf region with unexpected remarks, this time directing threats toward the Sultanate of Oman. Trump warned Muscat against coordinating with Iran on imposing transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz, given that both nations share control over the strategic waterway. While the warning appears tied to ongoing US-Iranian tensions over the strait, analysts point to deeper motives behind Trump's position—chief among them the ambitions of the United Arab Emirates and its leader, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to expand regional influence at the expense of long-established powers, including Saudi Arabia and Oman. According to observers, the Emirati leadership has been leveraging well-funded lobbying networks in Washington to shape US policies on matters critical to Abu Dhabi, including its simmering dispute with Muscat. A central figure in this effort is Tahnoon bin Za...

As Washington threatens fresh military strikes against Iran, the Gulf monarchies are far from united — a division that French diplomacy is racing to manage, Le Monde reports.   French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot ended a diplomatic tour of the Gulf on Friday, May 1, under the shadow of an imminent military escalation. Saudi Arabia warned that new American airstrikes against Iranian civilian infrastructure were expected within 48 hours, Le Monde reported. The strikes, threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump since late March, would target Iran following a fragile ceasefire that has held for nearly 30 days. Tehran has already warned that any such attack would trigger retaliatory strikes against Gulf states. A Region Fractured by War The Gulf monarchies are deeply divided over how to respond. Riyadh, relatively spared by Iranian strikes so far, is pushing for de-escalation and seeking to launch a regional conciliation forum, drawing closer to Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan....

A high-stakes diplomatic push to end the US-Israel war on Iran hit a fresh roadblock on Saturday after President Donald Trump abruptly cancelled a planned trip by his envoys to Islamabad, just hours after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departed Pakistan without meeting American officials. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump confirmed he had unilaterally called off the journey of his two senior envoys — presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff — who had been expected to travel to Islamabad for indirect negotiations with Tehran. "Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work!" Trump wrote. He added that there was "tremendous infighting and confusion" within Iran's leadership, claiming no one in Tehran knew who was in charge. "We have all the cards, they have none," he declared, leaving the door open for Iran to initiate contact: "If they want to talk, all they have to do is call." Araghchi'...

Islamabad proposes two-phase deal with immediate halt to hostilities and nuclear commitment; earlier Egyptian and Omani initiatives collapse with no Iranian response As Pakistan stepped forward Monday with a new diplomatic framework to end the Iran-US-Israel war, Israeli media reported that two previous ceasefire initiatives had already collapsed and that Washington and Jerusalem were actively preparing for a significant escalation of military operations against Tehran. Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, held overnight contacts with US Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, according to a source familiar with the proposals cited by Reuters. The framework Islamabad transmitted to both sides takes a two-phase approach: an immediate ceasefire that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, followed by a comprehensive agreement to be finalized within fifteen to twenty days. The prospective deal, provisionally named the ...