The Levant Files

Armenia has been plunged into a deepening political and religious crisis after the arrest of a high-ranking cleric. This move has ignited a diplomatic firestorm with Russia and drawn fierce domestic condemnation. A Yerevan court has ordered Archbishop Mikayel Ajapahyan, the influential Head of the Shirak Diocese, into two months of pre-trial detention on charges of making public calls to usurp power. The arrest is part of a broader government crackdown that has seen 15 members of the opposition "Holy Struggle" movement detained over an alleged coup plot. The crackdown has sparked fierce opposition within Armenia. The Armenian Apostolic Church condemned the decision as "political persecution" and a "manifestation of a personal vendetta" by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Critics allege the case is politically motivated, pointing to a 2024 incident reported by OC Media in its article "Bucking precedent, Armenia orders Archbishop Ajapahyan into custody o...

A high-stakes legal battle over the leadership of Turkey's main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), was postponed on Monday, deepening the political uncertainty surrounding the faction. The Ankara 42nd Civil Court of First Instance delayed the hearing until September 8, leaving unresolved a contentious lawsuit that seeks to annul the 2023 party congress where Özgür Özel ousted longtime leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Dramatic accusations from the plaintiffs marked the court session. According to a report by the Turkish news outlet T24, the plaintiffs' lawyer, Onur Yusuf Üregen, branded the current chairman, Özgür Özel, an "illegitimate chairman." In an extraordinary demand, Üregen called for the court to remove the entire current CHP administration and temporarily reinstate former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu until a final verdict is reached. Üregen, representing former Hatay Mayor Lütfü Savaş—who was expelled from the party—argued that the alleged irre...

The Greek government, led by Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, is facing intensified scrutiny over its stability and ethical conduct following an unrelenting series of scandals that have prompted the resignation or dismissal of over 30 ministers, deputies, and high-ranking officials during its tenure. The latest affair, involving allegations of patronage within the agricultural payment organization OPEKEPE, has once again thrown the administration's persistent struggles with accountability into sharp relief. This pattern of high-profile departures has fostered a perception of a "revolving door" at the heart of the Greek government. According to a recent report by the newspaper Efimerida ton Syntakton, the administration has lost an official approximately every two months. The OPEKEPE scandal alone precipitated a cascade of exits, including those of senior minister Makis Voridis, three deputy ministers, and a general secretary, all of whom were implicated in a case file ...

Armenia is facing a deepening political crisis following a series of high-profile arrests linked to an alleged coup plot against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government. Over the past week, authorities have detained prominent opposition figures, including top clerics from the influential Armenian Apostolic Church, accusing them of orchestrating a violent attempt to overthrow the government. These developments mark an unprecedented escalation in the ongoing power struggle between Pashinyan's administration and the Church leadership, which has emerged as a key critic of the government after Armenia's military defeats and territorial losses to Azerbaijan. Arrest of Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan and Others The crackdown began on June 25 with the arrest of Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, a leading figure in the opposition movement Holy Struggle (formerly Tavush for the Motherland). Galstanyan, who serves as primate of the Diocese of Tavush, has been a vocal critic of Pashinyan ...

North Cyprus is undergoing a profound transformation driven by accelerated economic growth, a construction boom, and significant demographic changes. This phenomenon is conceptualized as 'Dubaization,' a model of rentier development rooted in speculative construction, mass higher education, unregulated tourism, and segmented labor regimes. These shifts have occurred despite the entity's political non-recognition, legal ambiguity, and heavy dependency on Turkey. This insightful analysis is presented in the "PRIO Report 1/2025: From Isolation to Imitation: The 'Dubaization' of North Cyprus and the New Demography of a De Facto State" by Mete Hatay, a Senior Research Consultant at the PRIO Cyprus Centre. Hatay's report highlights that this model, unlike traditional industrialization, relies heavily on external capital and labor, making it a survival strategy in isolation yet also a source of new vulnerabilities. The Economic Engines of Change: Construction...

Israel to Finalize Historic Syria Peace Deal in Washington, Sources Say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing for a landmark visit to Washington in the coming weeks to finalize a historic peace agreement with Syria's new government, according to multiple Israeli media reports. The deal is said to be the centerpiece of a far-reaching U.S.-backed plan to reshape the region, expanding the Abraham Accords to include normalization of relations between Israel and key Muslim-majority nations, including Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The stunning diplomatic developments follow a period of intense, behind-the-scenes negotiations. According to a detailed report by the Rai al-Youm , citing an informed Syrian source via Israel's i24NEWS, Israel and Syria are on track to sign a full peace treaty before the end of 2025. The proposed agreement would see a gradual Israeli withdrawal from all Syrian territories it occupied after advancing into the 1974 buffer zone on De...

The foreign policy of Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides is under intense scrutiny, with critics arguing that his signature vision of Cyprus as a "pillar of stability" in the Middle East has collapsed under the pressure of recent dangerous events. The government's focus on building a strong geopolitical footprint through regional alliances is now being described as a "tasteless farce" that has dangerously diverted attention from the island's most pressing issue: resolving the Cyprus Problem. Writing in a recent analysis for the Cypriot newspaper Politis, republished in the Greek newspaper Efimerida ton Syntakton , journalist Kyriakos Pierides contends that the "virtual world" constructed by Christodoulides has been shattered. According to Pierides, a leadership that once filled nightly news broadcasts with "grandiose declarations" has been left exposed, its "imaginary doctrines of security and stability" proving hollow in t...

The White House is forcefully defending its claim that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have "completely and annihilated" Iran's nuclear program, a narrative President Donald Trump is pushing aggressively. However, a chorus of conflicting reports from U.S. intelligence, international atomic inspectors, and media analyses cast a significant shadow over the administration's victory lap, suggesting the program may only be temporarily disabled, not destroyed. The growing uncertainty was highlighted in an analysis by the French publication Courrier International . The report highlights a significant disparity between President Trump's triumphant declarations following the June 21 strikes and the more cautious assessments from intelligence agencies. Trump, on his Truth Social network, has decried any questioning of his version of events as "fake news" from outlets like CNN and The New York Times. Central to the skepticism is a startling announcement from the Intern...

Tune in now A political earthquake has shaken Greece, resulting in a series of high-level resignations that include government ministers and top officials. At the heart of the crisis is a sprawling agricultural scandal involving millions in EU funds, startling allegations of a sophisticated criminal organization, and a direct clash between European prosecutors and the Greek state. This is not just a local issue; it's a story of systemic corruption that has triggered investigations from Brussels and resulted in fines costing the country hundreds of millions of euros. The scandal, spearheaded by the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO), alleges a massive scheme to defraud funds intended to support genuine farmers. Investigators describe a "pyramid of corruption" where state officials, politicians, and individuals allegedly worked together to siphon off subsidies illegally. The methods were as brazen as they were bizarre, from creating "ghost flocks" of ...

In a significant political shake-up, several high-ranking officials within Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' center-right government resigned on Friday after being implicated in a vast scheme to defraud the European Union's agricultural budget. The resignations follow the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO) referring information to the Greek parliament concerning the alleged involvement of two former ministers. Among those who stepped down were Migration Minister Makis Voridis, Deputy Foreign Minister Tasos Chatzivasileiou, Deputy Minister of Rural Development Dionysis Stamenitis, Deputy Minister of Digital Governance Christos Boukoros, and Secretary General for Rural Development and Food Giorgos Stratakos. The EPPO has accused former ministers Voridis, who served as Agriculture Minister from 2021 to 2023, and Lefteris Avgenakis, who served as Agriculture Minister from 2023 to 2024, of misappropriating EU funds. Both men vehemently deny the allegations. The s...

The US military strike on Iran's core nuclear facilities is sending shockwaves through foreign policy circles, presenting a grim vision of a new era governed by "jungle law." In a stark analysis published on the news site T24 , former ambassador and political commentator Namık Tan analyzes the strike where US forces hit Iran's nuclear capacity. According to Tan's commentary, the strike forces the Iranian regime into an impossible position: to negotiate would be to risk being overthrown from within, but to resist would mean being utterly crushed by superior military force. This move, he argues, represents the "final nail in the coffin of the post-World War II institutional order." The analysis is set against the backdrop of a weeks-long war between Israel and Iran, where Israel's technological and military superiority has dismantled much of Iran's command structure and missile capabilities. However, Israel's own air defenses are beginning to s...

A tense paradox grips Turkey's political landscape as the government appears to be making historic strides in resolving the long-standing Kurdish issue while simultaneously intensifying judicial pressure on the main opposition, the Republican People's Party (CHP). At the heart of this volatile situation is former CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, whose potential return to politics threatens to fracture the opposition at a critical moment, raising questions about whether his motives are driven by personal ambition or part of a larger political design. According to a political commentary by journalist Murat Sabuncu published on T24 , the ruling party is executing a two-pronged strategy. The first involves dialogue with Kurdish political representatives to achieve potential disarmament, a process that is now at an advanced stage. The second prong involves a systematic judicial "engineering" of the opposition, utilizing the courts to neutralize key figures and potentially fo...

As global attention remains fixed on major power conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, a quiet but pivotal diplomatic process is unfolding in the Eastern Mediterranean. Informal negotiations over the long-standing Cyprus issue, which began in Geneva on March 17, are set to resume in New York this July, placing Turkey's regional strategy and international standing under intense scrutiny. While a breakthrough permanent solution is not widely expected, the talks themselves represent a crucial juncture for the security architecture, energy politics, and geopolitical balance of the entire region. The timing of these negotiations presents a formidable challenge for Ankara. According to an analysis published on Saturday by Ahmet Erdi Öztürk in the Yetkin Report , the diplomatic landscape is poised to shift. The Republic of Cyprus is scheduled to assume the rotating Presidency of the European Union Council on January 1, 2026. This development threatens to undermine the potential for a ...

As the Middle East grapples with unprecedented developments, a prominent analyst has issued a stark warning that Turkey is dangerously unprepared for a brewing regional "hurricane." The critique suggests that the country's leadership remains fixated on internal political consolidation, employing outdated methods and empty slogans while ignoring the grave external threats escalating at its very doorstep. This inward focus, it is argued, leaves the nation exposed at a time of immense geopolitical change. Writing for the online publication Serbestiyet , political analyst İlhami Işık contends that the geopolitical landscape is shifting at a breakneck pace. In his analysis, Işık states that the long-standing Turkish political mantra of "strengthening the domestic front" has become a hollow phrase, failing to translate into meaningful action at a time when national unity is most critical. Işık points explicitly to Iran as a potential epicenter of instability. "We...

A dramatic realignment is underway in the Middle East following Israel's decisive, 12-day military campaign against Iran this month, which left parts of Tehran heavily damaged and crippled key Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. But in an unexpected geopolitical twist, Israel's overwhelming success has not accelerated a landmark normalization deal with Saudi Arabia; instead, it has brought the process to a halt, replacing one regional fear with another. According to a new analysis by The Wall Street Journal , the fundamental calculus for regional peace has been upended. Previously, the primary incentive for a Saudi-Israeli pact was to form a united front against a menacing Iran. With Tehran now severely weakened after a series of conflicts that also defanged its proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, Riyadh's urgency to partner with Israel has diminished. It has been replaced by apprehension over Israel's demonstrated military and intelligence superiority and its high to...

Following what Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is hailing as a "total victory" over Iran's nuclear program, a new geopolitical contest is rapidly emerging in the Middle East. While Israel asserts its military dominance as the new foundation for regional order, Gulf Arab nations are quietly positioning themselves to lead with a different vision—one based on economic stability and diplomatic partnership rather than sheer force. The power vacuum left by a dramatically weakened Iran has created fierce competition for influence, according to a recent analysis in the French publication Courrier International . This report highlights that the petromonarchies of the Gulf, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, believe they offer a more viable geopolitical project for regional leadership, one that does not rely solely on military might. Prime Minister Netanyahu, buoyed by the "near-total destruction" of Tehran's nuclear capabilities as lauded by The Jerusal...

Life in Israel has quickly returned to a semblance of normality following a contentious ceasefire with Iran. Schools have reopened, and flights have resumed. Still, beneath the surface, the outcome of the "Rising Lion" military operation has left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a precarious position despite his claims of a "historic victory." While the conflict temporarily boosted his domestic standing, the US-imposed truce has starkly illuminated his international isolation and the fragile political ground he stands on at home. The ceasefire concludes a "Twelve-Day War" that had clear objectives: the neutralization of Iran's nuclear program and the destruction of its ballistic missile arsenal, which Israel deemed an "existential threat." According to an analysis by Guillaume de Dieuleveult in the French newspaper Le Figaro , Netanyahu has publicly asserted that these goals were met, claiming the nuclear program was "annihilated...

In the tense aftermath of a recent ceasefire with Israel, Iranian authorities have unleashed a sweeping internal crackdown, targeting hundreds of citizens accused of espionage and collaboration. The campaign, described by observers as a "witch hunt," has seen mass arrests, public calls for denunciation, and a sharp increase in executions, replacing the fear of external military strikes with a pervasive psychosis of internal repression. According to a report by Elisabeth Pierson in the French newspaper Le Figaro , Iranian state media has announced that over 700 people have been arrested since the conflict began. The accusations are severe, ranging from operating drones and making homemade bombs to photographing sensitive military sites and passing intelligence to the Israeli army. The report underscores a regime shaken by the conflict, now seeking to purge any perceived internal threats and reassert control. The crackdown has taken a lethal turn. The state-affiliated Mizan new...

A cautious relief has settled over Iran following the sudden ceasefire with Israel announced on June 24. Still, the quiet that has replaced the sound of explosions is filled with profound uncertainty. After twelve days of intense conflict, Iranians are emerging into a landscape of physical destruction and political ambiguity, with many fearing that a "wounded and humiliated" regime may now turn its fury inward. As reported by Courier International , while life in Tehran is slowly returning to a semblance of normality after days of resembling a ghost town, the official mood remains one of high alert. The ultra-conservative newspaper Kayhan reflected the regime's deep-seated distrust, warning that "a ceasefire supported by malicious individuals like Netanyahu and Trump is weak, fragile, and invalid." This sentiment has left many citizens, as noted by the daily Donya-e Eqtesad, struggling to "find the confidence to return home safely." The human cost of t...

In a stunning geopolitical reversal, Saudi Arabia has pivoted from viewing Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as an existential threat to seeing him as a necessary evil, preferring his continued rule over the specter of an "Iraqi-style chaos" engulfing its regional rival. The shift marks a dramatic evolution for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who once famously labeled Khamenei "the new Hitler of the Middle East" and actively encouraged US and Israeli military action to topple the Tehran regime. According to Courier International , this profound change in calculus was forged in the fires of 2019, when devastating missile attacks attributed to Iran or its proxies struck key Saudi oil infrastructure. The lack of a decisive US military response served as a stark realization for Riyadh: the American security umbrella was not guaranteed. This pivotal moment forced Saudi leadership to abandon its policy of confrontation and seek a modus vivendi with its powerful nei...

With a fragile ceasefire with Iran taking effect on June 24, the Israeli military has announced a pivot back to its long-standing campaign in the Gaza Strip. This move has paradoxically ignited hopes for an end to the devastating 20-month war. Israel's Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, declared that the army would now "concentrate anew on Gaza, to bring the hostages home and dismantle the Hamas regime," shifting the global spotlight back to a conflict whose humanitarian toll has reached catastrophic levels. The brief but intense conflict with Tehran had eclipsed mainly the ongoing crisis in the Palestinian enclave. Now, as the dust settles, a critical question, elegantly posed in a recent analysis by Courier International , is echoing through the corridors of power: Does Israel's claimed "victory" against Iran change the equation in Gaza? While the world watched the skies, a Palestinian journalist for Middle East Eye noted that the "massacre, displacement, an...

Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias Mere days ago, the Levant Files warned readers of two potential denouements to the unfolding Iranian drama. The first envisioned regime change—a scenario that threatened to unleash upon the region a reprise of the Iraqi catastrophe, magnified across a nation of far greater size and complexity. That particular specter has been banished, at least temporarily, by the Qatari-mediated ceasefire that now holds, however tenuously, between Tehran and Tel Aviv. Since Monday morning, defying expectations and the occasional missile exchange along the Tehran-Tel Aviv axis, this fragile armistice has endured. The Israeli-Iranian confrontation appears to have concluded for the moment. Yet every regional indicator suggests this drama is far from its final act. The Levant finds itself shackled to a deeply flawed peace—one that threatens to amplify the already endemic instability plaguing the region. Our apprehension rests upon four fundamental pillars: First, as astute analysts h...