According to a new analysis by The Wall Street Journal, the fundamental calculus for regional peace has been upended. Previously, the primary incentive for a Saudi-Israeli pact was to form a united front against a menacing Iran. With Tehran now severely weakened after a series of conflicts that also defanged its proxies Hezbollah and Hamas, Riyadh's urgency to partner with Israel has diminished. It has been replaced by apprehension over Israel's demonstrated military and intelligence superiority and its high tolerance for risk.
The Trump administration, which helped broker the recent ceasefire after limited U.S. strikes on Iran's Fordow nuclear site, is eager to capitalize on the moment. Officials have signaled a renewed push to expand the Abraham Accords, the diplomatic pacts between Israel and several Arab nations. "One of the president's key objectives is that the Abraham Accords be expanded, that more countries come into it, and we are working on that," special envoy Steve Witkoff said Wednesday.
However, significant obstacles remain. Saudi officials have reiterated that no deal is possible while the war in Gaza remains unresolved, where Palestinian authorities report over 56,000 fatalities. More critically, Riyadh is insisting on a credible pathway to a Palestinian state—a condition Israel's government firmly rejects. "The urgency is the state of Palestine and not the Iranian risk," a Saudi official stated, clarifying the kingdom's priorities.
The sentiment across the Gulf has been aptly summarized by U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn (R., Iowa), who, after a recent visit to the region, said, "Israel just became a victim of its success." Gulf monarchies, while relieved to see their Iranian adversary hobbled, now worry about an unchecked Israel taking actions they cannot influence or support. This concern is prompting a wholesale reassessment of regional security dynamics before any further diplomatic moves are made.
The recent conflict tested the Gulf's delicate diplomatic balancing act, where nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE had been mediating between Washington and Tehran. While they quietly welcomed Iran's weakening, they now fear a new regional order dictated by Israel rather than negotiated among partners. As Emirati foreign-policy adviser Anwar Gargash warned just before the war escalated, "If we choose to tackle everything with a hammer, nothing will be left unbroken."
Photo: Source