The Levant Files

The war has upended the Gulf’s old security assumptions, forcing states to reconsider their reliance on the US and future ties with Iran. By Giorgio Cafiero · 28 September 2026 The US-Israeli war on Iran and its chaotic spillover effects across the Middle East and beyond have forced the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members to come to terms with new realities. Calculations about the Gulf’s security architecture are being reassessed, and Gulf states have been seriously questioning longstanding assumptions about the United States’ commitment to their security in the face of regional threats, chiefly from Iran, which retaliated against US and Israeli attacks by firing missiles and drones at the GCC states since the outset of this conflict on 28 February. Looking ahead, what will emerge from this conflict is unclear. There will not be imminent reconciliation between Gulf Arab monarchies and Iran. Nor will the Gulf Arab monarchies make a straightforward move away from Washington. What appe...

The six-month-old war between the United States, Israel and Iran escalated sharply on Wednesday as US forces destroyed five more Iranian oil tankers, Iran answered with a 20-missile barrage toward an American base in Jordan and claimed fresh attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran-backed Houthis set Saudi oil facilities ablaze — driving Brent crude back above $100 a barrel for the first time since late July. The US military said the tankers were struck after Tehran twice launched ballistic missiles at an American warship in recent days, with crews ordered to abandon ship first; Central Command said it had destroyed ten Iranian tankers in the past week. Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they hit two US vessels and eight tankers and fired on ten ships trying to cross what Tehran calls a "prohibited and unsafe" zone — a claim CENTCOM dismissed as "completely FALSE," insisting no American warship was struck. The battlefield stretched beyond the Gulf overnight. J...

Hostilities between the United States and Iran sharply intensified overnight into Wednesday, as Tehran launched retaliatory strikes on American-linked bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq following a fresh wave of US attacks that Iranian officials say killed civilians at a wedding celebration. According to Iran's Red Crescent, cited by Iranian outlets, a US missile strike sent shrapnel into a home in Kuhestak, Sirik county, Hormozgan province, where a wedding was underway. The organization said more than 50 people were injured and four killed, including a young child. Iran's semi-official IRNA and state broadcaster IRIB also reported explosions across Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, Qeshm Island, Konarak and Sirik, with a fishmeal factory, a fishing pier and a maritime authority tower among the sites hit. Officials in Hormozgan said the strikes knocked out sections of the regional power grid, cutting electricity to parts of Kish Island. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)...

Iran is closely monitoring developments across neighboring countries, with particular attention focused on Azerbaijan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Syria, Iranian sources familiar with Tehran’s regional security assessments told The Levant Files. The sources said the Islamic Republic is increasingly concerned that its neighbors could provide the United States and Israel with military, logistical or intelligence opportunities that might be used against Iranian territory. Although Tehran continues to convey many of its concerns through diplomatic and security channels, the sources warned that further hostile activity originating from neighboring states could prompt a severe response. Iranian frustration appears particularly pronounced toward Azerbaijan, whose expanding relations and cooperation with Washington and Israel are being scrutinised closely in Tehran. “This is a situation that we constantly monitor,” one source said. “We have already delivered the necessary precautionar...

Bahrain and Kuwait secretly dispatched warplanes to strike military targets inside Iran earlier this month, marking the two small Persian Gulf states' first direct retaliation against Tehran in a conflict now grinding through its fifth month, according to people familiar with the matter. The airstrikes, carried out in the early hours, targeted drone- and missile-storage depots and other military sites inside Iranian territory. The United Arab Emirates, which conducted dozens of strikes against Iran from the war's outset through a ceasefire announced in April, provided intelligence on targets and defensive air cover for the operation — a sign of budding Arab military cooperation against Tehran. The strikes reflect the increasingly difficult position of Gulf Arab states, which have absorbed the bulk of Iran's retaliatory punishment throughout the war and now face the prospect of a prolonged standoff that threatens their security, economies, and very governing models. A Region...

The war between the United States and Iran entered its tenth consecutive night of American strikes on Tuesday, with both sides expanding the geographic scope of their attacks beyond the Strait of Hormuz into a wider arc spanning the Gulf, Jordan and Iraq. US Central Command confirmed it carried out a new wave of strikes against Iran beginning at 4 p.m. ET on Monday, targeting Iranian military command centers, air defense and coastal surveillance sites, maritime capabilities, and missile and drone launch sites intended to reduce Iran's ability to attack commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Explosions were reported across nine locations — Abdanan, Bandar Abbas, Bandar Lengeh, Bushehr, Chabahar, Qeshm Island, Sirik, Shiraz and Konarak — marking a notable inland extension of the campaign, with Shiraz among the newly hit cities. CENTCOM said the naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports since mid-July had already redirected seven commercial vessels and disabled one, while noting th...

Iran announced on Saturday that it has suspended all commitments under the Pakistan-brokered Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding with the United States, marking the formal collapse of the fragile arrangement that had sought to end hostilities between Washington and Tehran after last month's war. The declaration came as Iranian forces struck US-linked infrastructure across Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan for a second consecutive day, and as Washington moved additional aerial refueling assets into Israel amid reports that President Donald Trump is weighing a broader offensive against Iranian territory. Tehran declares the MoU dead Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tehran considers itself no longer bound by the 14-point Islamabad MoU, arguing that the United States had already dismantled the agreement through repeated violations. "America not only violated the memorandum of understanding but also dismantled it," Gharibabadi said, according to Iran's sta...

Every night for the past week, the world's attention has followed the same script: American strikes on Iranian coastal and transport targets, Iranian missiles fired back at Gulf states, oil prices twitching, the Strait of Hormuz named again and again as the conflict's central prize. But buried inside the hourly bulletins of the past 24 hours is a story that deserves to be read on its own terms, not as a bullet point in a live blog — because it may prove more dangerous, in the long run, than any single round of missiles. Water has become a battlefield. And both sides are now fighting on it, in the open, without pretense. What happened in the last 12 hours In the early hours of Saturday, 18 July, U.S. Central Command confirmed a seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iranian territory, hitting what it described as surveillance sites, military logistics, underground weapons storage and maritime capabilities along the coast facing the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state television rep...

The Middle East convulsed once more overnight as the United States pounded Iranian territory for a sixth consecutive night, tearing through bridges, railways, power stations and coastal radar installations in a campaign that has now killed at least 38 people and wounded more than 400 since a fragile truce collapsed. In return, Tehran unleashed a sweeping wave of retaliation across five Gulf states — a spasm of missiles and drones that has turned the Strait of Hormuz, and the wider waterways around it, into one of the most dangerous chokepoints on Earth. What began seven days ago as a rekindling of hostilities has, by Friday, hardened into something far graver: a widening war that increasingly resembles regional conflagration rather than contained confrontation. The ceasefire memorandum signed in Switzerland weeks ago now lies in tatters, its provisions abandoned amid a relentless cycle of strike and counterstrike that shows no sign of slowing. Sixth Night, Same Fury US Central Co...

Nournews, an outlet closely tied to Iran's security establishment, published an article dismissing a CENTCOM-hosted security meeting in Bahrain as an American attempt to disguise Washington's strategic failures in West Asia rather than a genuine display of power. Nournews is widely regarded as a media platform close to Iran's Supreme National Security Council and associated with hardline security circles, and this article's framing—invoking "the Ramadan war," Iran's "resistance," and warnings to Gulf Arab states—reflects messaging closely aligned with the Islamic Republic's official security narrative. The piece repeatedly channels the language of Iran's military and political leadership, presenting Tehran as the indispensable arbiter of Gulf security and casting any Arab cooperation with Washington as a repeat of a "historic defeat". The CENTCOM Meeting in Bahrain According to the report, CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper met in Ma...

Bahrain, in the wake of previous Iranian attacks and threats of continued missile and drone strikes, has placed all its units on the highest state of alert, warning that the risk of a new assault by the Islamic Republic has not been fully eliminated. In a new statement, Bahrain’s General Command of the Defence Force announced that all military units are now at the “highest level of readiness and defensive alert,” a move that follows the wave of tensions triggered by recent Iranian missile and drone strikes on Bahraini territory. According to the Iran International, the decision comes amid warnings from Bahraini officials and regional analysts that the possibility of renewed Iranian attacks on military and infrastructure targets, especially around Manama and key energy and security installations, remains serious. During the 2026 war, Iran used a mix of missiles and drones to hit Bahrain several times, and according to official estimates, dozens of missiles and hundreds of ballistic and ...