The Levant Files

Writing for the  Al Mayadeen  Jamal Wakim stresses that US President Donald Trump has once again rattled the Gulf region with unexpected remarks, this time directing threats toward the Sultanate of Oman. Trump warned Muscat against coordinating with Iran on imposing transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz, given that both nations share control over the strategic waterway. While the warning appears tied to ongoing US-Iranian tensions over the strait, analysts point to deeper motives behind Trump's position—chief among them the ambitions of the United Arab Emirates and its leader, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to expand regional influence at the expense of long-established powers, including Saudi Arabia and Oman. According to observers, the Emirati leadership has been leveraging well-funded lobbying networks in Washington to shape US policies on matters critical to Abu Dhabi, including its simmering dispute with Muscat. A central figure in this effort is Tahnoon bin Za...

When US President Donald Trump confirmed this week that he had called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “f***ing crazy” and claimed “you’d be in prison if it weren’t for me,” the political establishment braced for a rupture. But according to veteran diplomatic correspondent Herb Keinon writing in The Jerusalem Post, such outbursts are neither new nor predictive of a lasting breakdown in US-Israel relations. The latest drama began Monday when Axios reported on an explosive phone call in which Trump allegedly berated Netanyahu over Israeli military actions in Lebanon, which the president said were threatening his delicate negotiations with Iran. The Prime Minister’s Office initially disputed the account, but Trump confirmed it days later on a New York Post podcast, answering simply: “I did.” Yet Keinon argues that three familiar patterns are being ignored. First, Trump periodically vents at Netanyahu in extraordinarily blunt language. Second, these episodes are routinely misinterpreted ...

In this episode of the Levant Files Deep Dive, we zoom in on the final, agonizing hours of the Iranian Shahdom. For twenty-five centuries, the Persian monarchy stood as an enduring symbol of imperial authority. Yet, in the winter of 1979, this ancient institution unraveled with astonishing speed, culminating in a dramatic countdown that reshaped the global geopolitical landscape. We trace the final 1,000 hours of the regime, a period defined by systemic paralysis, desperate political compromises, and the ultimate evaporation of state authority. The narrative takes us from the quiet, tense corridors of Niavaran Palace to the snow-slicked tarmac of Mehrabad Airport on January 16, 1979. Here, we witness the departing Shah, physically weakened and politically isolated, handing the keys of a struggling kingdom to Shapur Bakhtiar—a prime minister whose authority existed largely on paper. This episode deconstructs the mechanisms of this rapid collapse. We explore how a highly sophisticated mi...

A territorial dispute dating back more than half a century has surged back into the international spotlight, as the United Arab Emirates renews its long-standing claim to three strategically vital islands in the Persian Gulf currently controlled by Iran. Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs lie near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and a quarter of its liquefied natural gas pass. Iran's Imperial Navy seized the islands on 30 November 1971, just two days before the formal establishment of the UAE, after the withdrawal of British forces. Sharjah had administered Abu Musa and Ras al-Khaimah the two Tunbs; both emirates acceded to the new federation, leaving the UAE to inherit the dispute. Source: UAE Washington Embassy web page The competing claims remain irreconcilable. Iran insists the islands are an "inseparable" part of its territory, citing historical possession and a 1971 memorandum of u...

An opinion piece in Turkish daily Cumhuriyet warns that if the government-backed “appointed” leadership of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) is politically isolated and stripped of grassroots support, it risks becoming a powerless, token partner in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s orbit rather than a real opposition force. Citing past coalition practices, columnist Orhan Bursalı argues that the ruling bloc could easily absorb a much‑reduced CHP into the Cumhur Alliance, just as it previously accommodated the tiny Democratic Left Party (DSP). Bursalı contends that ongoing tensions between CHP’s elected leadership around Özgür Özel and the court‑installed “appointed” administration could, if unresolved, hollow out the latter into a “party without a base” that survives only through state backing. In that scenario, he writes, the appointed CHP would “cease to be a force” and lose its value as a usable political instrument for “Reis,” a common shorthand for Erdoğan. However, he notes that...

Donald Trump’s decision to attend the 7–8 July NATO Summit in Ankara is being read in Ankara as a strategic gain that both relieves pressure on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and elevates Turkey’s role at a moment of intense regional conflict, according to a commentary by Murat Yetkin on Yetkin Report. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress on 3 June that President Donald Trump will personally take part in the NATO summit in Ankara, describing it as “perhaps the most important meeting in NATO’s history.” This confirmation comes after weeks of uncertainty over whether Trump would appear in person, a prospect that had fueled anxiety in several NATO capitals about the US commitment to the alliance. For Erdoğan, the announcement offers rare positive news on the foreign policy front just as he navigates a highly charged domestic scene, including a crisis inside the main opposition CHP sparked by a court ruling annulling internal party decisions. Ankara views Trump’s visit as a sign...

A 39-year-old mother of two was butchered with a knife inside her own home in the dead of night — and her 41-year-old husband stands accused of the killing in a case authorities are now branding the fifth femicide to rock Greece in 2026. In the early hours of June 1, just before 2:00 a.m., the 39-year-old Greek woman was found dead in the bedroom of her apartment, her body bearing multiple wounds from a sharp object. The killing unfolded inside an apartment block in the center of Kalamata, at the junction of Vasilissis Olgas and Kanari streets. When police arrived, they found her 41-year-old husband inside the home, drenched in blood. He was detained and arrested on the spot, and officers seized the knife allegedly used in the attack. Most chilling of all: the couple's two young daughters, aged 6 and 10, were reportedly inside the apartment when the violence erupted. A Confession — and a Disturbing Defense The victim, a 39-year-old Greek woman and mother of two, had never come to t...

At first glance, the regional picture looks bleak for any breakthrough on Cyprus. Ankara has not moved from its insistence on a two-state framework — effectively the permanent partition of the island. In the Aegean, Greece and Turkey are again trading warnings, and the Turkish parliament is preparing legislation to entrench the "Blue Motherland" maritime doctrine. Against that backdrop, it is fair to ask whether anything positive can realistically emerge in the near term. The answer is a cautious yes — but the gains on offer are practical rather than political. The most plausible positive development is not a settlement of the constitutional question, which remains frozen, but a thickening of the day-to-day contacts that keep the two communities connected and the diplomatic process technically alive. That window is being opened by UN envoy María Ángela Holguín. In tandem with her island visit, both leaders signalled they want to keep the process moving and prepare for "n...

In a report published by The New Arab, journalist Oliver Mizzi, writing from London, mapped the expanding nuclear landscape of the Middle East and North Africa — and examined the growing dangers those facilities face as armed conflict spreads across the region. The report was prompted by a drone strike on the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant on 17 May, blamed by Emirati authorities on Iraqi armed groups, which drew urgent condemnation from the United Nations and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over the risk of a nuclear catastrophe. Active Programmes The UAE operates the most advanced civilian nuclear programme among Arab states. Its Barakah plant, which came online after a programme launched in 2006, now generates roughly a quarter of the country's electricity across four reactors, with plans for two more under consideration. Iran runs the region's most extensive nuclear programme, rooted in the 1950s and revived after post-revolutionary disruptions with Ru...