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TLF's Perspective: A Perilous, Deeply Perilous Ceasefire

Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias Mere days ago, the Levant Files warned readers of two potential denouements to the unfolding Iranian drama. The first envisioned regime change—a scenario that threatened to unleash upon the region a reprise of the Iraqi catastrophe, magnified across a nation of far greater size and complexity. That particular specter has been banished, at least temporarily, by the Qatari-mediated ceasefire that now holds, however tenuously, between Tehran and Tel Aviv. Since Monday morning, defying expectations and the occasional missile exchange along the Tehran-Tel Aviv axis, this fragile armistice has endured. The Israeli-Iranian confrontation appears to have concluded for the moment. Yet every regional indicator suggests this drama is far from its final act. The Levant finds itself shackled to a deeply flawed peace—one that threatens to amplify the already endemic instability plaguing the region. Our apprehension rests upon four fundamental pillars: First, as astute analysts h...
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Trump Ordered Airstrikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites, Upending "America First" Doctrine

In a stunning reversal of his long-professed "America First" foreign policy, President Donald Trump ordered massive airstrikes on Iran's key nuclear facilities late Saturday night, plunging the United States into a direct military confrontation with Tehran and risking a catastrophic, wider conflict in the Middle East.  The move undermines the President's doctrine, which for years has criticized the "endless wars" of his predecessors. According to an analysis by Philippe Coste in the French newspaper Libération , "the President who promised to pull the United States out of 'endless wars' has just bombed Iran's nuclear sites, at the risk of committing his country to a new, lasting conflict in the Middle East." This action repudiates the core promise to his base that he was the only President in recent memory not to start a new war, a central plank of his 2024 campaign platform. The American assault followed a tense two-week period initiat...

Iranian Regime Prioritizes Survival Over Confrontation

In a dramatic turn of events, Iran has agreed to a ceasefire with Israel following devastating U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear facilities at Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz. The decision, which took nearly 48 hours to announce, signals Tehran’s recognition of its weakened position and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s determination to preserve his regime at all costs. ​According to the Lebanese daily L’Orient-Le Jour , “Khamenei wanted to save his skin, to the great dismay of Iranians. Between ‘unconditional’ capitulation and suicide, the Iranian regime chose a third path to save what remains of its power ‘in ruins.’ Tehran could emerge considerably weakened from this war, but none of the scenarios suggest a democratization project.” ​The strikes, authorized by President Trump as part of his administration’s maximum pressure campaign, have dealt a severe blow to Iran’s nuclear program, setting it back by what analysts estimate could be decades. The 86-year-old Khamenei, who has spent thirty year...

Netanyahu's Iran Gambit Fractures Opposition, Reshaping Israel's Political Landscape

In a decisive military action that has sent shockwaves across the Middle East, Israel's recent bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities has achieved a critical, if unstated, objective for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: the fracturing of the powerful domestic opposition that once threatened his political survival. For nearly three years, a diverse and determined coalition, united by its intense opposition to Netanyahu's judicial overhaul and his handling of the October 7 catastrophe, has been a persistent thorn in his side. That unity now appears to be a relic of a bygone political moment. The fissures in the anti-Netanyahu coalition became starkly visible in the aftermath of the strike. According to a recent analysis in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, the once-unshakable "Just Not Bibi" camp has effectively collapsed under the weight of national security imperatives. Key opposition figures, including Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid, and Avigdor Lieberman, who had built th...

Iran Asserts 'Imposition of Defeat' on Israel and U.S.

According to a new Iranian Tasnim News Agency article titled " Arguments About Imposing Defeat on the Zionist Enemy/Let's Not Have a 'Trump Tribune' in Iran ," the recent cessation of military conflict represents a victory for Iran and a defeat imposed upon Israel and the United States, not a mutually agreed-upon peace. The article refutes what it calls enemy attempts to portray the outcome differently through media and psychological operations. The agency argues that the end of the conflict was not a bilateral ceasefire but a unilateral declaration of failure by the U.S. and Israel. It asserts that the "final blow" was delivered by Iranian missile attacks on the American base in Al-Udeid, Qatar, and on Israeli territory. These strikes, the article claims, inflicted unforeseen and unsustainable damage, compelling the opposing side to halt their aggression after failing to achieve their stated goal of forcing Iran into a "complete surrender agreement...

Tehran Battered as Fragile Ceasefire Takes Hold Between Iran and Israel

A precarious calm has descended over Tehran after twenty-four hours of unprecedented Israeli bombardment, with a fragile ceasefire brokered by the United States taking effect on Tuesday morning. According to a new report from the French newspaper Le Monde , explosions and anti-aircraft fire ceased around 4 a.m. local time, though Iran conducted a final volley of retaliatory missile strikes in a last show of force. The cessation of hostilities follows a dramatic twelve-day conflict that saw direct military exchanges between the two regional powers, culminating in a devastating assault on the Iranian capital that targeted key government and security installations, including the notorious Evin Prison, home to numerous political detainees. The breakthrough was announced by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who declared on his Truth Social network that a "complete ceasefire" had been reached between the two parties. This diplomatic flurry was reportedly initiated after Iran laun...

Israel Strikes Iran's 'House of Horrors'

Israel bombed Tehran's notorious Evin Prison on Monday, a facility synonymous with human rights abuses, striking a potent symbol of Iranian state repression. The attack signals a dramatic escalation beyond military and nuclear sites, directly targeting the core security pillars of the Islamic Republic's ruling system. The strike on Evin followed U.S. bunker-buster attacks on Iran's underground nuclear facilities, with Tehran vowing retaliation. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar starkly posted "Viva la libertad!" on X, accompanying a video appearing to show an explosion at an Evin Prison entrance. While Reuters could not immediately verify Saar's video, other footage of the prison's aftermath was confirmed genuine. Iranian state media showed rescue workers amid flattened wreckage as the judiciary pledged urgent action to protect inmate safety. Evin Prison, located in northern Tehran, has a grim history that predates the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Built in ...