The Levant Files

Iran is facing sustained internal and external pressure, including widespread protests, economic strain from sanctions, and intensified domestic repression, yet the Islamic Republic’s leadership appears to be holding firm. Security institutions remain cohesive, and the overall trajectory points to a regime that is weakened but not nearing collapse absent outside intervention. According to an assessment by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia continue to show loyalty and operational effectiveness, with no indications of significant defections inside Iran’s regular armed forces (the Artesh). The INSS assessment argues that historical precedent suggests mass protest movements alone are unlikely to trigger regime collapse, leaving Tehran under strain but broadly stable. The analysis also notes a harder U.S. line on the political and military implications of Iran’s behavior since the crisis be...

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Washington between February 10 and 13 for his seventh visit in the past 13 months, amid signs that the close U.S.-Israel alliance is being tested by growing personal and policy friction between Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly over Iran and the future of Gaza. Writing for Turkish think-tank Orsam, Özgür Dikmen, stresses that the visit is described as less a routine diplomatic engagement than an effort by both leaders to “mark” and constrain each other as negotiations with Iran and U.S.-backed plans for Gaza move forward. One of the most discussed images from the trip was Netanyahu’s understated arrival at the White House, where he entered via a side door without a ceremonial welcome or a large press presence. The analysis argues that the absence of a joint press statement after a closed, roughly three-hour meeting pointed to substantive differences—especially on Iran—rather than a relaxed bypass...

Senior Israeli defense officials are warning that the West Bank could face heightened volatility during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, despite the Israel-Hamas cease-fire, amid signs that worsening economic conditions and political decisions could push Palestinians toward broader protests and clashes with Israeli forces. The warnings were delivered in closed-door discussions and reported by Haaretz, citing assessments by senior military officials who say Palestinians in the West Bank—who have so far not mobilized for mass unrest—may now be more likely to do so as pressures mount. Israeli security officials have described Ramadan, which begins later this week, as a major “stress test.” While the past two Ramadan periods took place against the backdrop of the Gaza war, the military now assesses that the situation is more fragile four months after the cease-fire agreement, due to a combination of security incidents, government policies perceived as weakening the Palestinian Au...

Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias, chief editor of The Levant Files, sat down with Turkish academician Prof. Dr. Ozan Örmeci of the Uluslararası Politika Akademisi (UPA) to dissect three interlinked flashpoints shaping the Eastern Mediterranean: the Erdoğan-Mitsotakis summit, the frozen Cyprus negotiations, and ominous military activity on British bases pointing toward a possible confrontation with Iran. Stelgias described Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's visit to Ankara as a "very positive step" that unfolded largely as expected. He noted that both leaders deliberately avoided the most incendiary rhetoric that had defined the relationship in recent years. President Erdoğan refrained from pressing the two-state solution for Cyprus, while Mitsotakis avoided the inflammatory language — such as calling Cyprus "a dagger plunged into the side of Hellenism" — that he had previously used before the U.S. Congress and that his former Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias had rout...

UN envoy says leaders should meet directly without intermediaries, calls for "different model of interaction" ahead of potential formal talks restart in July The United Nations has effectively pressed pause on formal Cyprus reunification efforts, with the Personal Envoy of UN Secretary-General, Maria Angela Holguin, signalling that conditions are not yet ripe for substantive negotiations to resume. In an opinion editorial disseminated by the UN in Cyprus, Holguin outlined a cautious roadmap, urging the island's leaders to continue meeting independently and make small joint decisions while exploring viable pathways to restart formal negotiations "in the best possible way, beginning in July." Reflecting on her last joint meeting with Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman, Holguin highlighted what she described as a significant development: "The idea emerged that the two sides could speak directly to one another witho...

While diplomats whisper in Omani palaces beneath slow-turning ceiling fans, Iranian security forces open fire on their own streets. The Gulf sits under the guns of a massive U.S. naval armada, yet in Muscat’s shaded corridors, envoys exchange indirect messages about a nuclear program Tehran vows never to dismantle. This is the paradox of modern Iran: a regime fighting for survival against domestic uprising and foreign pressure simultaneously, threatening to sever the global economy’s jugular at Hormuz rather than surrender its ballistic missiles or enrichment centrifuges. The Levant Files launches this urgent podcast series at the precipice of history. We trace how mass civilian casualties sparked the most dangerous internal crisis since 1979, even as the Trump administration steams toward potential conflict. We dissect the Oman talks—the fragile conduit where Washington and Tehran speak through intermediaries while refusing to budge on existential red lines, even as military strikes l...

BM temsilcisi, liderlerin aracı olmadan doğrudan görüşmesi gerektiğini vurguladı; Temmuz’da resmî müzakerelerin yeniden başlaması ihtimali öncesinde “farklı bir etkileşim modeli” çağrısı yaptı. Birleşmiş Milletler (BM), Kıbrıs’ın yeniden birleşmesine yönelik resmî süreci fiilen askıya aldı. BM Genel Sekreteri’nin Kişisel Temsilcisi Maria Angela Holguin, kapsamlı müzakerelerin yeniden başlaması için gerekli zeminin henüz oluşmadığını açıkladı. BM’nin Kıbrıs’ta yayımladığı görüş yazısında Holguin, temkinli bir yol haritası çizerek ada liderlerine aracı olmadan doğrudan temaslarını sürdürmeleri ve küçük ama ortak adımlar atmaları çağrısında bulundu. Amaç, resmî müzakerelerin “en uygun koşullarda, Temmuz ayından itibaren” yeniden başlatılmasının yollarını hazırlamak. Kıbrıs Cumhurbaşkanı Nikos Christodoulides ile uluslararası mecrada tanınmayan KKTC Cumhurbaşkanı Tufan Erhürman’la yaptığı son görüşmeye değinen Holguin, önemli bir gelişmeye dikkat çekti: “Tarafların BM araya girmeden doğrud...

Welcome to this special episode of The Levant Files Deep Dive, available on all major podcast platforms . On 6 February 2026, the relative peace of Pakistan’s capital was shattered when a suicide bomber targeted the Khadija Tul Kubra Shia mosque in Tarlai Kalan. During the main Friday prayers, an attacker wearing an explosive vest and carrying a firearm opened fire on volunteer guards at the gate before detonating himself near the back rows of more than 400 worshippers inside. The carnage was devastating: at least 31 people were killed and approximately 170 others injured, many critically. This atrocity—the deadliest attack in Islamabad since 2008—was swiftly claimed by the Islamic State–Pakistan Province (ISPP). The group framed the bombing as a sectarian strike against “infidel” Shias. While Pakistani officials have alleged that “India-backed proxies” operating from Afghan soil facilitated the attack, independent analysts argue it aligns closely with ISPP’s documented pattern of anti...

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Iran has declared its readiness to consider compromises in pursuit of a nuclear agreement with the United States, provided Washington is prepared to discuss lifting crippling economic sanctions. The announcement comes amid heightened tensions, with the US increasing its military presence in the region and President Donald Trump threatening strikes if no deal is reached. According to a report by the BBC, Iran's deputy foreign minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi stated in an exclusive interview in Tehran that "the ball is in America's court to prove that they want to do a deal." He added, "If they are sincere, I'm sure we will be on the road to an agreement." His comments directly counter repeated assertions by US officials that Iran is the party obstructing progress in negotiations. Takht-Ravanchi pointed to Tehran's offer to dilute its stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium—near weapons-grade level—as a concrete sign of goodwill. However, he declined to specify...

A profound and urgent debate is currently unfolding within Israel's highest political and security echelons, centered on the future of the Gaza Strip. The core question revolves around two stark choices: maintaining the precarious current situation or embarking on a renewed, decisive war aimed at the complete eradication of Hamas. This critical discussion is fueled by alarming reports from reserve soldiers on the ground, indicating a resurgence of the terrorist organization, which appears to be rebuilding its capabilities beneath the surface. This analysis draws heavily from an article titled "Will Israel reoccupy Gaza?" by Amit Segal, published on February 14. Segal's insights reveal the deep divisions and complex considerations facing Israeli decision-makers as they confront the persistent challenges posed by Hamas. The prevailing sentiment within Israel has shifted dramatically since October 7, fostering a strong aversion to any form of “containment” and a desire f...

A profound shift in the longstanding security alliance between the United States and Israel appears imminent following a recent meeting between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Senator Lindsey Graham. As the current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)—which guarantees Israel $38 billion in defense funding over a decade—nears its expiration in two years, discussions indicate that a renewal is far from guaranteed, signaling a potential end to decades of automatic American military support. As analyzed in a recent opinion piece by the Jerusalem Post, the Prime Minister’s rhetoric regarding self-reliance likely masks a harsher diplomatic reality. According to the article, Washington is quietly moving toward terminating military assistance, a shift that carries severe consequences for the Jewish state. Former minister Nachman Shai, writing for the Post, argues that despite Netanyahu's public posture, this transition is being dictated by changing American political tides rather tha...

  by  Avshalom Halutz   A French comics journalism book of interviews with Israelis and Palestinians on intimacy, compiled before October 7, is to be released in English. Meanwhile, singer and activist Achinoam Nini releases the hopeful first single from her new album and a Facebook spat between creatives highlights divides in Israeli society. The climax of "Love and Desire in the Promised Land: The Private Lives of Israelis and Palestinians," the comics journalism book by Paris-based journalist Salomé Parent-Rachdi and illustrator Deloupy, arrives unexpectedly. Originally published in French six months before the October 7 attack, the book, set to be released in English by Fantagraphics this year, is largely unchanged, despite the catastrophic events that have unfolded since. Parent-Rachdi traveled through Israel, the occupied West Bank and Gaza, meeting people from a wide range of backgrounds willing to share their experiences of intimacy with her. For the English editi...

  An unusually sharp war of words has erupted between Baghdad and Ankara after comments by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan triggered a wave of denunciations from Iraqi officials and politicians, exposing the fragility beneath a recent thaw in Turkey–Iraq ties.  In a televised interview with CNN Türk on February 9, Fidan argued that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) “occupies vast areas of land” in Iraq and urged Baghdad to make a “wiser decision” on confronting the group, which has waged a decades-long insurgency against Turkey. He hinted that a short military operation could eliminate the PKK’s presence on Iraqi soil, signaling Ankara’s readiness to act if Iraqi authorities fail to move decisively.  The remarks sparked immediate fury in Baghdad, where the Foreign Ministry summoned Turkish Ambassador Anıl Bora İnan to deliver a formal protest. Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed Hussein Bahr al-Uloom condemned Fidan’s statements as “an affront to friendly relations,” a...

Zeynep Gürcanlı Pazarlıkta esneklik göstermesi gerekenin ABD’deki Trump yönetimi olduğu açık. İş, Trump’ın Tahran’dan gelecek küçük tavizleri hem iç, hem de dış kamuoyuna “diplomatik zafer” gibi pazarlayıp pazarlayamayacağında kilitleniyor. İran’daki Molla rejimi de “gelmekte olanın” farkında; Tahran’daki dini Lider Ayetullah Hamaney’in yönetimindeki muhafazakar yapı  ”önlemler alma” çabasında. Bir dönem Türkiye’de de çok tartışılan “Büyük Ortadoğu Projesi” (BOP) bölgesinde sular hiç durulmuyor. BOP’un “fikir babası” olan ABD yine başrolde. Kabaca Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika’ya Amerikan yanlısı ve İsrail’e herhangi bir tehdit içermeyen bir “düzen” getirmeyi hedefleyen BOP çerçevesinde, yeni hedef İran. Bölgede İsrail dışındaki ABD yanlısı rejimler 80 milyondan fazla nüfuslu İran’da herhangi bir “kaos” istemiyorlar. Komşu ülkeler, İran’da “alternatif” belirlenmeden Molla rejiminin devrilmesi halinde, bölgede hem Hürmüz Boğazı merkezli ticaret yollarının olumsuz etkileneceğinin hem de k...

Tehran is accelerating defenses at its most vital surviving nuclear facility near Natanz, leveraging delays in potential US or Israeli strikes to render the underground complex nearly impervious to attack. High-resolution satellite images reveal a flurry of construction activity at the Kolang-Gaz La Mountain tunnel site, also known as Pickaxe Mountain, as analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).  According to a Jerusalem Post article by Yonah Jeremy Bob published February 12, the imagery from February 10 shows Tehran pouring concrete over the western tunnel entrance extension and leveling rock and soil at eastern portals, with dump trucks, cement mixers, backhoes, and cranes swarming the area. These reinforcements add overburden material like extra rock, soil, or concrete, bolstering protection against airstrikes that devastated most Natanz facilities—including existing centrifuges—during the Israel-Iran War in June 2025. Fordow, another deeply burie...

A new US-led economic corridor through the South Caucasus is emerging as the centerpiece of Washington’s latest diplomatic push, with Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan aimed at anchoring both states in a shared infrastructure and trade project designed to lessen their dependence on Russia and Iran.  US Bets on an Economic Corridor to Lock in Peace JD Vance’s tour of Yerevan and Baku was framed not only as support for the fragile Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process, but as the launchpad for a wider east–west corridor that would connect the Caspian to Europe while bypassing Russia and Iran.  US officials presented the idea as a long‑term answer to the region’s chronic insecurity: if Armenia and Azerbaijan are bound together by energy, transport and technology projects, the cost of renewed conflict would rise sharply for both capitals.  At the heart of this vision is TRIPP – the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity – a branded transit and t...