The Levant Files

Eight years ago, Turkey and Saudi Arabia appeared to be heading towards lasting enmity. On Friday, August 7, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stood together in Mecca as Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a collective-defence agreement declaring that an armed attack on one would be considered an attack on all three.  The contrast is difficult to ignore. On October 2, 2018, Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi walked into the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul and never came out. He was killed and dismembered by Saudi agents. US intelligence subsequently concluded that Mohammed bin Salman approved the operation, an allegation the crown prince has denied while accepting responsibility for the killing occurring “under his watch.”  The murder plunged Turkish-Saudi relations into their deepest crisis in decades. Ankara pursued the case internationally and Turkish officials released a stream of evidence implicating Saudi operatives. Erdoğan repeatedly de...

The temptation to call the new Turkey-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan defence pact a “Muslim NATO” is understandable. It is also premature. by Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias, Chief Editor of TLF As previously reported by The Levant Files, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan have signed a significant trilateral defense agreement. This agreement establishes a collective defense commitment, meaning that an armed attack on any one of the three countries will be considered an attack on all three. This creates a potentially substantial new security framework that links three of the most militarily and strategically important states in the Muslim world. Its most dramatic provision — that an armed attack against one member will be considered an attack against all three — resembles NATO’s collective-defence principle. But what happens the morning after such an attack remains undefined. The published material specifies neither automatic military intervention nor a command structure or predetermined response. “Colle...

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a landmark trilateral defence agreement establishing a collective-defence commitment under which an armed attack on any one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack on all, creating a potentially significant new security framework linking three of the Muslim world's most militarily and strategically important states. The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement was signed on Friday, August 7, at Al-Safa Palace in Mecca by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif during the Makkah Al-Mukarramah Summit for Joint Defence.  The central provision was confirmed in virtually identical language by the Saudi and Pakistani sides. “The agreement is intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression, and stipulates that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all,” Pa...

Το άγνωστο παρασκήνιο μέσα από τουρκικές πηγές και αναφορές Το επετειακό δημοσίευμα ανασυνθέτει τα γεγονότα του 1974 μέσα από το αρχείο του Πρακτορείου Ειδήσεων Κύπρου (ΚΥΠΕ) δημοσιογράφου Μεχμέτ Αλί Μπιράντ και τις μαρτυρίες του διπλωμάτη Ενγκίν Σολάκογλου. Η τουρκική εισβολή στην Κύπρο πραγματοποιήθηκε σε μια περίοδο εσωτερικής αστάθειας για την Τουρκία, η οποία είχε μόλις εξέλθει από μια διετία στρατιωτικής κηδεμονίας. Σύμφωνα με τον κ. Σολάκογλου, η πρώτη φάση της εισβολής κόντεψε να καταλήξει σε στρατιωτική καταστροφή για την Τουρκία λόγω της ισχυρής αντίστασης που συνάντησαν οι δυνάμεις της. Ο Τούρκος διπλωμάτης αμφισβητεί την ύπαρξη αρχικού σχεδιασμού για κατάληψη ολόκληρου του νησιού, αποδίδοντας τις σχετικές δηλώσεις στην ιδιοσυγκρασία του Νετζμετίν Έρμπακαν. Η ανάλυση καταλήγει ότι η τουρκική πολιτική στην Κύπρο αποτέλεσε ένα γεωπολιτικό φιάσκο, το οποίο δεν απέδωσε τα αναμενόμενα οφέλη για το τουρκικό κράτος. Πενήντα ένα χρόνια μετά την εισβολή, τα γεγονότα του καλοκαιριού τ...

Turkey's parliament this week received the most concrete legislative step yet in Ankara's four-decade conflict with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK): a 12-article bill, formally titled the "Law on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Integration," submitted Wednesday with the signatures of 360 lawmakers from six parties. Yet as the bill heads toward debate, Kurdish politicians and the PKK's own leadership say it leaves untouched the political and cultural questions that have defined — and repeatedly derailed — every previous attempt to end the conflict. The bill sets out the legal machinery for what happens after the PKK's declared dissolution: deferral of prosecutions and prison sentences for people convicted of PKK membership, for up to ten years. Judges would have discretion to postpone sentence enforcement for five years for those sentenced to 15 years or less, and for ten years for those sentenced between 15 years and life. Militants living ...

Lebanon is being squeezed from three directions at once this summer. Washington and Israel are pressing Beirut toward direct negotiations and the disarmament of Hezbollah. Syria's post-Assad government, once Hezbollah's rear base, is now intercepting the group's weapons shipments at Washington's urging. And Turkey is publicly objecting to Lebanon's maritime border agreement with Cyprus — even as Ankara itself concedes it has no legal mechanism to overturn it. Together, the three fronts illustrate how little room Beirut has left to maneuver on its own terms. I. The Rome Talks: Washington and Israel Set the Clock on Hezbollah Israeli and Lebanese delegations opened a seventh round of U.S.-brokered negotiations in Rome on August 4, the latest in a series of direct talks that began after a cease-fire between Iran, the United States and Israel was declared in April. The three-day session is focused on expanding "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon — areas where Is...

Diplomats edged toward a possible breakthrough on reopening the Strait of Hormuz even as fresh US strikes hit Iran overnight, underscoring the volatile mix of diplomacy and military action driving the six-month-old conflict. A senior Gulf official told CNN there is roughly a "50-50" chance Iran and Oman will finalize an interim arrangement on safe shipping routes through the strait by Friday. Iran's Foreign Ministry said this week that Tehran and Muscat have agreed on the geographic coordinates of a proposed corridor and are finalizing a joint statement, though a senior Iranian official cautioned that any deal would not automatically reopen the waterway to all traffic. President Trump said the strait would reopen "soon" and warned that Iran would be "hit very hard" if it did not, as US Central Command confirmed additional overnight strikes. Iran, however, denied it is negotiating directly with Washington, insisting its talks are strictly bilateral with...

Damascus and Baghdad Downplay Talk of Imminent Clash, But Militia Movements, U.S.-Saudi Strikes and Regional Warnings Keep Tension High The 600-kilometer frontier separating Syria and Iraq has become one of the most closely watched fault lines in the Middle East over the past week, as Syria's transitional government placed its armed forces on heightened alert and moved reinforcements toward the border amid warnings over Iran-backed militia activity in the area. The Syrian Ministry of Defense ordered troops onto "Alert Level C" — described by regional media as the military's maximum readiness posture — on August 4, recalling personnel from leave and directing units to report immediately to their posts. Convoys from the Syrian army's 66th and 86th Divisions were reported moving toward the Iraqi border from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa provinces, according to local sources cited by South Front and Al Bawaba. Damascus has issued no public explanation for the mobilization. The...

  1974 yazında Kıbrıs'ta yaşananlar, Yunanistan ve Kıbrıs'ta ayrıntılı biçimde belgelendi. Ancak olayın Türkiye içindeki boyutu; işgal öncesinde ve sırasında Ankara'da hâkim olan atmosfer, liderlik kademesindeki çelişkiler ve harekâtın az kalsın akamete uğradığı o kritik anlar büyük ölçüde gölgede kaldı. Bu yıl dönümünde, gazeteci Mehmet Ali Birand’ın (32. Gün arşivi) kayıtlarından ve uzun yıllar Türkiye Dışişleri Bakanlığı adına Kıbrıs meselesi ile Türk-Yunan ilişkilerini yakından takip eden diplomat Engin Solakoğlu’nun Kıbrıs Haber Ajansına (KHA) verdiği yanıtlardan yararlanarak, 1974'ü Türkiye’nin kendi gördüğü ve anlattığı şekliyle yeniden aktarmayı amaçlıyoruz. Bu aktarım doğal olarak Türk tarafının bakış açısını yansıtmakta olup, kullanılan ifadeler ya da yorumların mutlaka benimsendiği anlamına gelmiyor. Askerî Vesayetten Yeni Çıkmış Bir Ülke İşgal kararının nasıl alındığını anlayabilmek için önce Türkiye'nin o dönem içinde bulunduğu durumu kavramak gerekli. ...