The Levant Files

Iran’s continued expansion of its strikes to include Arab Gulf states and Jordan does not serve Tehran’s interests, but instead raises the cost of confrontation and opens the door to broader American responses in the coming days, according to Jordanian columnist Firas Al-Nu’san, writing in Al Dustour on July 23. The analysis argues that the wider the circle of attacks becomes, the harder it grows to contain the escalation or keep it within calculated limits. Targeting Jordan and Gulf states, or threatening their security and interests, does not shift the balance of power in Tehran’s favor, Al-Nu’san contends, but instead gives the United States and its allies additional justification to intensify strikes on Iranian targets, including military sites, missile and drone-related facilities, and command centers. Iran is reportedly betting that widening the confrontation will raise the cost of prolonged war for its adversaries, but this strategy carries major risks, since an open-ended conf...

As the US-Iran war enters its fifth month and American forces carry out a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iranian territory, Iran’s state and semi-state media ecosystem — Tehran Times, Press TV, Fars News, and affiliated commentary — has spent the past 72 hours converging on a consistent set of narrative pillars. Even as Tehran rejected the latest US ceasefire proposal, delivered Thursday by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, Iranian outlets have used the moment to reinforce a story of strategic endurance, Western fracture, and American overreach. A survey of the last three days of Iranian analysis and opinion coverage reveals five dominant angles. 1. The Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s Decisive Leverage The single most consistent theme across Iranian commentary is that control of the Strait of Hormuz — not missiles or nuclear capability — has become Iran’s central strategic asset. IRGC Deputy Commander for Political Affairs Brigadier General Yadollah Javani, in remarks carried by Fars...

The occupied West Bank recorded one of its bloodiest 24-hour stretches in months on Thursday and Friday, with at least five people killed — four Palestinians and one Israeli — and more than a dozen others wounded in a cluster of shootings, stabbings, and settler-related clashes concentrated around Nablus. The violence unfolded even as international attention remained fixed on the US-Iran war, underscoring how the West Bank’s slow-burning crisis continues to intensify largely outside the global spotlight. The Last 24 Hours The deadliest incident occurred early Friday near the settlement of Havat Gilad, west of Nablus. According to Israeli military and settler accounts, a group of roughly 60 Israeli hikers — including armed civilian guards — set out from Mount Bracha into Areas A and B of the West Bank, territory normally off-limits to Israeli civilians. Confrontations broke out with Palestinian residents of the nearby village of Tell, reportedly beginning with stone-throwing and escalat...

Over the past weeks, a diplomatic tug-of-war has intensified between Washington and Damascus over the role Syria should play in confronting Hezbollah, as the United States grows increasingly frustrated with the pace of Israel's military campaign in Lebanon and the stalled implementation of a fragile ceasefire framework. Despite repeated public calls by President Donald Trump for Syrian forces to intervene against the Iran-backed group, Damascus has firmly rejected any military deployment into Lebanese territory, opting instead for internal security operations and diplomatic signaling aimed at preserving its post-war transition. Trump Doubles Down on Syrian Intervention The pressure campaign reached new heights this week when Trump, sitting alongside Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the White House on Tuesday, reiterated his suggestion that Syria could intervene in Lebanon to "do something with Hezbollah." Trump claimed that Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa "would li...

Jordan is grappling with a dangerous shift in Iran’s regional strategy, as recent missile attacks have turned the kingdom into what one commentator calls a “central arena” in Tehran’s ongoing confrontation with the United States. In a detailed opinion piece on Al Jazeera Arabic, Jordanian journalist Fahd Al-Khitan argues that Iran now treats Jordan not only as a host to American forces, but as a legitimate target for strategic strikes on ports, airports and other vital installations. Al-Khitan notes that the latest wave of attacks marks a departure from the dynamics of the earlier “forty-day war” involving the US, Israel and Iran, during which Jordan largely escaped direct, high‑level targeting. The recent Friday strikes, in which Iranian missiles hit US military assets in one of Jordan’s bases and killed three American soldiers, represent a turning point in Tehran’s approach, he writes. American accounts of the attack, confirmed to the writer by official Jordanian sources, describe ex...

Özgür Özel’s announcement could trigger a mass exodus from the CHP and create a new main opposition force in Turkey’s parliament. A major rupture within Turkey’s opposition has now been formally confirmed, more than two weeks after The Levant Files reported that dozens of lawmakers were preparing to leave the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and establish a new political formation under Özgür Özel. Speaking at a parliamentary group meeting in Ankara on Tuesday, Özel announced that he and allied lawmakers would take the first steps towards creating a new party. Describing his departure from the CHP as a painful but unavoidable farewell, he presented the initiative as a “new beginning” and the start of a renewed campaign to govern Turkey. On July 6, The Levant Files reported that at least 73 CHP deputies were considering joining a breakaway party, potentially depriving the CHP of its position as Turkey’s main parliamentary opposition. The report, based on information circulating in Ankara...

By Pierre Lellouche The central issue is now the restoration of freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. As is so often the case, it all began with a double miscalculation—one by US President Donald Trump and the other by his ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The first mistake was to overestimate the weakness of the Islamic Republic. In the aftermath of 7 October, Tehran had watched Israel destroy Hamas in Gaza and inflict severe damage on Hezbollah, the principal instrument in Iran’s existential struggle against Israel. Decapitated following the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in September 2024, Hezbollah saw hundreds of its senior members killed or wounded the following month by explosive-laden pagers planted by Mossad. These humiliating setbacks were compounded by the fall of Iran’s ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Two full-scale missile and drone wars between Israel and Iran followed, in October 2024 and June 2025. Once again, they demonstrate...

In a wide-ranging interview published by Shargh Daily, veteran Iranian diplomat and academic Dr. Seyyed Ahmad Kazemi Mousavi argued that Iran's civilizational identity remains intact despite recent military confrontations, while cautioning that diplomacy must not be overshadowed by battlefield developments. Speaking to Shargh Daily in a conversation titled "War, Iran, and the Redefinition of Identity," Mousavi — who has served in Iranian diplomatic missions in Canada, the United States, Iraq, and Egypt, and taught at universities including Maryland, Virginia, and George Washington — pushed back against the notion that recent conflicts have marginalized Iran's cultural narrative in favor of a purely military one. "Cultural Iran has not been marginalized," Mousavi told Shargh Daily, pointing to Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif's recitation of Saadi's poetry during President Pezeshkian's recent visit to Islamabad as evidence that Iran's c...

The likelihood of direct Israeli involvement in the escalating U.S.-Iran confrontation is growing, as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran's newly revealed "Mount Pickaxe" nuclear facility "with great force," according to a report by YNET. Speaking during a historic White House meeting with Lebanese President George Aoun, Trump declared: "We will definitely attack the new site they are talking about, Mount Pickaxe. The whole story is about nuclear weapons, and now they may be trying to re-establish a site. We will hit that site too. Any site where they even think about nuclear activity, we will hit with very great force," YNET reported. The threat carries heightened significance following reports that Iran has transferred thousands of enrichment centrifuges — and possibly uranium — to the Mount Pickaxe facility. Israeli officials assess that if Trump follows through on expanding the war to target the site, the conflict would no longer remai...