The Levant Files

As diplomatic channels with Washington remain active through intermediaries, Iran is signaling a multi-layered strategy should hostilities with the United States resume. In a detailed press conference, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ismail Baqaei outlined a posture of heightened military readiness, legal countermeasures, and reinforced regional diplomacy, emphasizing that Tehran will not be passive in the face of renewed aggression. Baquqaei stated unequivocally that Iran’s armed forces are "prepared for any scenario" and possess "military surprises" should the U.S. or its allies take hostile action. This rhetoric underscores a strategy of deterrence through asymmetric capability, aiming to raise the perceived cost of any military strike. The spokesman framed recent regional tensions—including the January 2024 missile exchanges—as a catalyst for Iran to adopt "measures for its national security" based on international law, a position it maintains is legitimate...

Israeli naval commandos boarded vessels of the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters off Cyprus on Monday morning — deep inside the maritime neighbourhood of two European Union member states, neither of which has taken any public action to stop it. The interception, the third in roughly a year and the second carried out hundreds of kilometres from Israel's coast, seized a number of the convoy's lead boats and detained hundreds of activists from 45 countries; the remainder were expected to turn back. The flotilla had departed the Turkish port of Marmaris on Thursday, May 14, bound for Gaza, whose Israeli naval blockade has been in place since 2007. Livestreams from the flotilla showed commandos in tactical gear boarding several of the lead vessels with weapons drawn, while activists wearing life jackets raised their hands and, in some cases, threw mobile phones into the sea before transmissions cut. According to Israeli reporting, the operation was designed to seize roug...

  From Nairobi's burning barricades to Dhaka's silent generators, the same shock — and the same losers. The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut since late February, when U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — triggered Tehran's closure of the world's most important oil chokepoint. Pre-war, roughly 20% of global seaborne oil and LNG passed through it; today only a small fraction of normal traffic moves. The International Energy Agency calls it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent crude has traded above $100 a barrel for months, peaking near $126. But the deepest damage is not on the trading floor. It is in the wage packet, the fuel queue and the factory line — and it is falling, almost without exception, on the people who can least absorb it. Nairobi: A Strike Lit by a Gulf Pipeline On May 18, Kenya's public-transport sector shut the country down. Matatu owners, truckers...

Drone strike on UAE nuclear plant, deadlocked negotiations, and open military threats signal the Middle East may be approaching a catastrophic breaking point A alarming convergence of diplomatic failure and military escalation is pushing the Middle East toward the edge of open conflict, as US-Iran nuclear negotiations appear hopelessly deadlocked and a drone attack struck dangerously close to the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant Sunday. Iran's semi-official Fars News Agency — closely linked to the country's military and security establishment — has revealed the staggering gulf separating Washington and Tehran in ongoing negotiations, exposing a list of five American conditions and five Iranian counter-demands that appear almost impossible to reconcile. According to Fars, the United States is demanding Iran surrender 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, accept the release of none of its frozen assets, maintain only a single nuclear facility, pay zero war repara...

  Jihadist Offensives, Ebola Emergency, and Endless War Converge in Catastrophic Multi-Front Collapse The African continent is experiencing one of the most severe convergences of simultaneous crises in its modern history. Over the past three weeks, a devastating jihadist offensive has effectively besieged Mali's capital, a rare and poorly understood strain of Ebola has jumped borders and been declared a global health emergency, and Sudan's civil war has entered a terrifying new chapter defined by mass civilian slaughter from drone strikes. Taken together, these crises are reshaping the security, humanitarian, and geopolitical architecture of an entire hemisphere — and doing so largely beyond the gaze of an international community consumed by other flashpoints.   🇲🇱 MALI: The Siege of Bamako and the Collapse of the Russian Gamble What began on April 25 as a coordinated series of attacks has since evolved into the most dangerous crisis Mali has faced since the 2012...

As President Kais Saied tightens his authoritarian grip, Tunisians take to the streets in the largest wave of demonstrations since his 2021 power grab — but the tools of resistance are shrinking fast Fifteen years after the Arab Spring ignited a revolution that once made Tunisia the world's brightest democratic hope, the North African nation is burning again — this time not with the euphoria of uprising, but with the fury of a people watching their hard-won freedoms systematically dismantled. Demonstrations have erupted across Tunisia, from the capital Tunis to the industrial city of Gabès, fuelled by a cascading series of political crises: mass political trials handing out sentences of up to 66 years, the forced shuttering of the country's most respected civil society organizations, the imprisonment of journalists, lawyers, and opposition leaders, and an economy offering little hope to an increasingly desperate population. A Nation's Democratic Flame Flickering Out Fifteen...

Under the Cover of War, Tehran Accelerates a Brutal Purge — Executions Surge, Dissidents Hanged, and the World's Most Famous Political Prisoner Clings to Life The Islamic Republic of Iran is executing its own citizens at a terrifying pace. As missiles fly and regional war rages around it, the Iranian regime has turned its guns inward — systematically eliminating scientists, protesters, and dissidents behind prison walls while the world's attention is fixed on the battlefield. The numbers are staggering, the methods brutal, and the message unmistakable: in wartime Iran, dissent is now a death sentence. A Killing Spree Hidden Behind the Fog of War In the 48 days following March 18, at least 28 political prisoners were executed. In the first half of May alone, more than 20 people were hanged. Human rights monitoring organizations — including Iran Human Rights (IHR) and the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center — have sounded the alarm, warning that the Iranian government is deliberately ex...

Iran has dramatically escalated its use of the death penalty in the weeks following the April ceasefire that ended its war with the United States and Israel, with rights organizations warning that the Islamic Republic is using executions as a tool of political intimidation, according to a report by The New York Times published May 15. Iranian authorities executed four prisoners this week alone on charges including espionage and terrorism, Iranian state media reported. But rights groups say the surge began earlier — in mid-March — and has accelerated sharply since the ceasefire took hold. Many of those executed were detained during the mass anti-government protests that shook Iran in January, when security forces killed thousands of demonstrators. "Many of these executions follow extremely rapid judicial proceedings in which defendants have little or no access to legal counsel, face fundamentally unfair trials and are often convicted using forced confessions extracted under torture...

Bahrain, in the wake of previous Iranian attacks and threats of continued missile and drone strikes, has placed all its units on the highest state of alert, warning that the risk of a new assault by the Islamic Republic has not been fully eliminated. In a new statement, Bahrain’s General Command of the Defence Force announced that all military units are now at the “highest level of readiness and defensive alert,” a move that follows the wave of tensions triggered by recent Iranian missile and drone strikes on Bahraini territory. According to the Iran International, the decision comes amid warnings from Bahraini officials and regional analysts that the possibility of renewed Iranian attacks on military and infrastructure targets, especially around Manama and key energy and security installations, remains serious. During the 2026 war, Iran used a mix of missiles and drones to hit Bahrain several times, and according to official estimates, dozens of missiles and hundreds of ballistic and ...