The Levant Files

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Netanyahu Seeks Clarity on US Military Options as Iran Nuclear Talks Loom

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's upcoming meeting with President Donald Trump is expected to focus on clarifying American intentions regarding potential military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities should diplomatic negotiations fail, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the preparations. Writing for Israel Hayom, Amb. Freddy Eytan, a former Foreign Ministry senior adviser who served in Israel’s embassies in Paris and Brussels, warns that Western diplomats often misunderstand the dynamics of negotiating with Tehran. "Western diplomats negotiate for a better future and to secure a solid agreement, while the Iranians, Qataris, or Turks behave like carpet merchants in an oriental bazaar," writes Eytan, who was Israel’s first Ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Mauritania and a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. "They seek only immediate gain without considering the long term." The veteran diplomat argues that t...

Moscow Analysis: Why Washington Views "Strike and Observe" as the Rational Approach to Iran

The buildup of American military forces in the Persian Gulf has triggered significant strategic debate in Moscow regarding Washington's evolving intentions toward Tehran. According to Russian foreign policy experts closely monitoring the trajectory of U.S.–Iranian tensions, the White House is increasingly likely to view limited military action not as a prelude to regime change but as the opening phase of a calculated strategic algorithm. From the Kremlin's perspective, American decision-makers consider a "strike and observe" approach—calibrated military engagement followed by careful assessment of Iranian regime stability, societal response, and military resilience—to be the most rational option for addressing the complex security challenges posed by the Islamic Republic. This assessment from Moscow suggests that Washington sees the current moment as an opportunity to test Tehran through controlled aggression, maintaining the flexibility to escalate, retreat, or retu...

Russia Prepares Evacuation Plans for Specialists at Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Plant

Russia is developing contingency plans to withdraw its personnel from Iran's sole operational nuclear facility as security concerns mount across the Middle East, officials confirmed this week. According to AzerNEWS, Moscow is preparing to evacuate specialists working at Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant amid heightened regional tensions and growing concerns over security risks surrounding nuclear facilities. Russian officials stated that coordination between the Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry is underway to ensure the safety of personnel deployed at the site, as was stated last week. Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom has confirmed that evacuation scenarios are being considered, though no final decision has been taken so far. Meanwhile, video footage shows heightened activity linked to personnel movements, adding visual confirmation to reports that precautionary measures are underway. While the footage does not indicate an immediate evacuation, it aligns wit...

ONLY IN TLF: Cyprus Emerges as Unlikely Backstage Player in US-Iran Nuclear Talks

Island nation's strategic position highlighted as Larijani arrives in Oman while US government aircraft departs from Cyprus. While official statements focus on Muscat as the venue for indirect US-Iran negotiations, intelligence indicators and military movements suggest Cyprus is playing a quiet but significant supporting role in the delicate diplomatic dance between Washington and Tehran. The island's behind-the-scenes involvement came into sharper focus Tuesday when Ali Larijani, senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader and former parliament speaker, arrived in Oman for crucial follow-up talks to last week's initial round of indirect negotiations. According to unverified intelligence shared on the Telegram channel @iRan_Efsha_News, Larijani's arrival coincided precisely with the departure of a US government aircraft from Cyprus to Oman — carrying American officials for the same negotiations. The timing, described by the channel as "strange" (عجیب), raises ...

Eastern Mediterranean Entrusted to American Oil Companies

Turkey's foreign policy faces a turbulent week as EU talks stall over Cyprus, Greece's PM prepares to visit Ankara, and U.S. energy giants quietly reshape the region's hydrocarbon landscape. Turkey experienced a busy week on the foreign policy front — and even busier days lie ahead. The visit by Marta Kos, the EU's Commissioner for Enlargement, was significant but ultimately fell short of expectations. Kos offered no breakthroughs on either the modernization of the Customs Union or visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to Europe. Instead, she reiterated the reforms Turkey must undertake — rule of law, democratic standards — areas where successive AKP governments have consistently dragged their feet. According to a report by Zeynep Gürcanli in the Turkish outlet Ekonomim, the expansion of the Customs Union has once again hit a wall over the Cyprus issue. Greek Cypriots, who currently hold the rotating EU Council Presidency, are insisting that Turkey open its ports to ves...

The Growing Saudi-UAE Power Struggle in the Horn of Africa

A once-quiet divergence between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi now threatens to engulf the Horn of Africa in a wider contest for regional dominance, with devastating consequences for already fragile states. What was once a subtle rift between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has escalated into an overt and consequential rivalry stretching across the Horn of Africa. While the two Gulf powers long cooperated as pillars of a shared regional agenda, their strategic visions have diverged sharply — first in Yemen and now across Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Libya. The question facing policymakers is whether this competition can be managed or whether it will deepen instability in one of the world's most fragile regions. According to Jonathan Fenton-Harvey, writing for The New Arab on 9 February, the rivalry stems from a fundamental clash between Abu Dhabi's maritime-centric, proxy-driven model of influence and Riyadh's emphasis on state sovereignty, central authority, and border se...

Netanyahu Urges Trump to Lead Western Moral Stand Against Tehran*

Israeli Prime Minister calls for decisive action against Iran as regime's brutal suppression of protests leaves tens of thousands dead As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepares for a high-stakes meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington, the Jerusalem Post has issued a forceful editorial calling on both leaders to spearhead a fundamental shift in Western policy toward Iran, moving beyond diplomatic engagement toward a strategy aimed at confronting what it describes as a regime "unworthy of engagement." Protests and Bloodshed on an Unprecedented Scale The editorial comes against the backdrop of Iran's most devastating internal crisis in decades. Since late December, nationwide protests have swept through Iran, fueled by economic collapse and deep political stagnation. According to emerging reports, the Iranian regime's crackdown has been staggering in its ferocity, with an estimated 30,000 to 36,500 people killed in the government's respo...

Trump's Iran Strategy Carries Significant Risks of Escalation, Analyst Warns

Military buildup in the Middle East accelerates as diplomatic efforts stall over fundamental disagreements between Washington and Tehran In an opinion piece published by the Taipei Times, political scientist Ian Bremmer, founder and president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, warns that Iran could become the next theater where President Donald Trump attempts to reshape geopolitical realities through military force — but unlike recent actions in Venezuela, intervention in Iran could spiral dangerously out of control. Trump has laid out stark terms for Tehran: accept a deal far tougher than the 2015 nuclear agreement he abandoned during his first term, or face massive military strikes. Washington's demands include the surrender of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, an indefinite halt to enrichment, dismantlement of remaining nuclear infrastructure, limits on ballistic missiles with full inspections, and an end to support for regional proxy forces including Hezbollah and the Houth...

Israel Eyes Egypt’s Military Buildup and Rapprochement With Turkey With Growing Unease

Israel is increasingly alarmed by Egypt’s accelerating military build‑up and its fast‑warming relationship with Turkey, developments that Israeli officials and analysts warn could reshape the strategic balance across the Eastern Mediterranean and around Gaza. For decades, the 1979 Egypt–Israel peace treaty has been a cornerstone of Israel’s regional security, effectively neutralising the largest Arab army on its southern flank. But recent Egyptian arms purchases, expanded deployments in Sinai and Cairo’s defence outreach to Ankara are fuelling doubts in Jerusalem about how stable that equation will be in the long term. In a rare public warning earlier this month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told lawmakers that the Egyptian army “is building its strength, and this needs to be monitored,” adding that Israel must ensure there is no “excessive buildup of military power” in its neighbour. Senior security officials have echoed those concerns in off‑record briefings, pointing in particu...