Iran is facing sustained internal and external pressure, including widespread protests, economic strain from sanctions, and intensified domestic repression, yet the Islamic Republic’s leadership appears to be holding firm. Security institutions remain cohesive, and the overall trajectory points to a regime that is weakened but not nearing collapse absent outside intervention. According to an assessment by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia continue to show loyalty and operational effectiveness, with no indications of significant defections inside Iran’s regular armed forces (the Artesh). The INSS assessment argues that historical precedent suggests mass protest movements alone are unlikely to trigger regime collapse, leaving Tehran under strain but broadly stable. The analysis also notes a harder U.S. line on the political and military implications of Iran’s behavior since the crisis be...
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Washington between February 10 and 13 for his seventh visit in the past 13 months, amid signs that the close U.S.-Israel alliance is being tested by growing personal and policy friction between Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly over Iran and the future of Gaza. Writing for Turkish think-tank Orsam, Özgür Dikmen, stresses that the visit is described as less a routine diplomatic engagement than an effort by both leaders to “mark” and constrain each other as negotiations with Iran and U.S.-backed plans for Gaza move forward. One of the most discussed images from the trip was Netanyahu’s understated arrival at the White House, where he entered via a side door without a ceremonial welcome or a large press presence. The analysis argues that the absence of a joint press statement after a closed, roughly three-hour meeting pointed to substantive differences—especially on Iran—rather than a relaxed bypass...