The Levant Files

أعادت التصعيدات العسكرية بين الولايات المتحدة وإسرائيل من جهة، وإيران من جهة أخرى، التي اندلعت في أواخر فبراير 2026، رسم البنية الأمنية للشرق الأوسط من جديد. غير أن الطرف الذي جاءت ردود فعله لافتةً في محدوديتها هو سوريا، أو بالأحرى الحكومة الانتقالية في دمشق بقيادة الرئيس أحمد الشرع، المعروف على نطاق واسع بكنيته السابقة في ميادين القتال. ففي حرب طالت إيران مباشرةً وورّطت وكلاءها الإقليميين، وشهدت تبادلات صاروخية بالطائرات المسيّرة فوق الأجواء العربية، اقتصر الموقف العلني لدمشق على حفنة من البيانات الدبلوماسية المنتقاة بعناية. وهذا الضبط ليس وليد المصادفة، بل يعكس حساباً استراتيجياً مدروساً تمليه الهشاشة الداخلية، وإعادة تموضع جيوسياسي، وضرورات بناء الدولة في مرحلة ما بعد الأسد. تتناول هذه الورقة التحليلية الأسباب الكامنة وراء الاستجابة المحسوبة لدمشق، وتضعها في سياق توجّه الحكومة السورية الانتقالية منذ سقوط نظام الأسد وإعادة تشكيل السياسة الخارجية السورية بعيداً عن المحور الإيراني. ما قالته دمشق... وما لم تقله جاء أبرز تصريح علني للحكومة السورية الانتقالية في 28 فبراير 2026، حين أصدرت ...

The attack on Azerbaijani soil, widely could be seen as a calculated message from Tehran, comes amid mounting speculation that Washington and Tel Aviv have been exploring the mobilisation of Iran's large Azeri minority as a destabilising force — a scenario that may now be drawing the South Caucasus into the wider US-Israel-Iran conflict. Two Iranian unmanned aerial vehicles struck civilian infrastructure in Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave on the morning of 5 March 2026, in what Baku has condemned as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous escalation in the now six-day-old military confrontation between the United States, Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran. One drone impacted the terminal building of Nakhchivan International Airport — located a mere ten kilometres from the Iranian border — damaging the roof and triggering fires, while a second crashed near a school in the village of Shekarabad. Two civilians were reported injured; evacuations were ordered ...

Understanding the Syrian Interim Government's Limited Response  to the US–Israel–Iran War  Dr Nikolaos Stelgias   The escalation of hostilities between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, beginning in late February 2026, has fundamentally redrawn the security architecture of the Middle East. Yet one actor whose response has been conspicuously restrained is Syria — or, more precisely, the interim government in Damascus led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa (widely known by his earlier nom de guerre). In a conflict that has directly implicated Iran and its regional proxies, and that has seen missile and drone exchanges over Arab airspace, Syria's public posture has been limited to a handful of carefully worded diplomatic statements. This restraint is not accidental. It reflects a deliberate strategic calculus shaped by domestic fragility, geopolitical repositioning, and the imperatives of post-Assad state-building. This analysis examines the rea...

From a Chinese viewpoint, recent US and Israel airstrikes on Iran represent a profound and alarming evolution in global conflict, where mere dislike of a regime justifies illegal aggression. This analysis, rooted in Global Times' interview with international law expert Alfred de Zayas, warns of a reversion to "might makes right" principles. Legal Precedent Concerns De Zayas argues that US-Israel actions breach the UN Charter's Article 2(4), setting a perilous precedent by normalizing wars based on political animosity rather than legal grounds. He compares this to historical violations like NATO's 1999 Yugoslavia bombing and the 2003 Iraq invasion, both deemed illegal, highlighting depleted uranium use as ongoing crimes against international norms. Without enforcement, he warns, the rules-based order collapses into Thucydides-era lawlessness where "the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must." Short-term, these strikes risk breaching in...

Afghanistan and Pakistan have slid into a perilous new stage of open conflict, as intense cross‑border fighting, mounting civilian casualties, and a surge in militant attacks inside Pakistan converge into what officials on both sides now describe as a de facto war. Over the past 72 hours, heavy shelling, airstrikes, and ground clashes along the frontier have deepened fears of a wider regional crisis and further destabilization of Afghanistan’s already fragile humanitarian landscape. Frontline Under Fire In recent days, residents along the Durand Line have reported almost continuous explosions and exchanges of heavy weapons fire, particularly across sections of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjacent Afghan provinces. Afghan sources claim Taliban border forces have overrun or seized several Pakistani outposts in contested sectors, presenting the gains as proof that Kabul will not tolerate attacks on its soil. Pakistani officials, however, insist their troops have held firm, asserting that they ...

  As regional alignments fracture and great-power competition intensifies, a new analysis warns that the Iran file is no longer a discrete crisis — it is a multi-front contest with consequences stretching from the Levant to Ankara's domestic politics. The crisis around Iran cannot be reduced to a single flashpoint. Writing for Global Panorama, political analyst Ahmet Erdi Öztürk argues that the Iran file is best understood as a high-density, multi-actor contest in which shifts on the Syrian and Iraqi battlefields, great-power signalling, and domestic political vulnerabilities interact in real time. Any scenario about Iran is never only about Iran, Öztürk writes, noting its reverberations across the Levant, the Gulf, energy markets, migration routes, and even Turkey’s domestic Kurdish question. Central to Öztürk’s analysis is Turkey’s posture. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has been unequivocal in recent weeks, stating that Turkey opposes any military intervention against Ira...

Turkey shot down an Iranian ballistic missile that crossed Iraqi and Syrian airspace before entering Turkish airspace on Wednesday, as the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran entered its fifth consecutive day of strikes with no signs of abating. Turkey's Ministry of National Defence confirmed that a NATO air and missile defence system deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean intercepted and destroyed the projectile before it could cause any damage. A debris fragment from the interceptor missile landed in the Dörtyol district of Hatay province, with no casualties reported. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan subsequently contacted his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi to convey Ankara's strong protest over the incident and to urge all parties to refrain from escalatory steps. The Turkish Defence Ministry issued a firm warning that Ankara reserves the right to respond to any hostile act and that all necessary measures would be taken without hesitation to defend Turkish terri...

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reportedly been elected as the country’s new Supreme Leader following his father’s death in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on Tehran on February 28, 2026. Multiple sources, including Iran International and NDTV, confirm that the Assembly of Experts chose Mojtaba as the next leader on March 4, 2026, under significant pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). At 56 years old, Mojtaba is now the highest authority in Iran’s theocratic system, assuming control over the military, judiciary, and all state affairs.  Born on September 8, 1969, in Mashhad, Mojtaba grew up during the revolutionary movement against the Shah. He later studied under prominent conservative clerics in Qom, including Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, though he holds only mid-ranking clerical status and is not recognized as an ayatollah. Despite never holding elected office, he has long been a powerful behind-th...

The United States and Israel have entered the fourth day of a massive joint military operation against Iran, striking nearly 2,000 targets across the country, destroying nuclear facilities, sinking much of the Iranian navy, and decimating the Islamic Republic's missile infrastructure — all while Tehran retaliates with waves of ballistic missiles and drones targeting neighboring Arab states and Israel. According to Iran International, the Assembly of Experts, under pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has selected Mojtaba Khamenei — son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — as the next leader of the Islamic Republic. Khamenei was killed on Saturday, February 28 (9 Esfand), in a targeted strike on his office in Tehran, according to earlier reports confirmed by the outlet. "Operation Epic Fury": Largest US Deployment in a Generation Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), released a video update on the operation dubbed ...