The Levant Files

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Erdoğan'ın Demokrasiye Yönelik Baskısı Türkiye'nin Müttefiklerini de Tehdit Ediyor*

Otoriter yönetim ve siyasi rakiplerin hapsedilmesi, NATO ile bölgesel istikrarı sarsabilir Özgür Özel Dünya liderleri gelecek hafta Ankara'da düzenlenecek NATO Zirvesi için bir araya gelirken Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan bu fırsatı güçlü bir lider görüntüsü vermek için kullanacak. Ancak bu görüntü, Türkiye'de demokrasinin giderek daha fazla baskı altına alınmasıyla ortaya çıkan derin kırılganlığı gizliyor. Hükûmet, ülkenin gerçeklerini dünyadan saklamaya çalışırken barışçıl göstericileri, avukatları, gazetecileri ve akademisyenleri gözaltına aldı. Bu durum yalnızca Türkiye için değil, başta Avrupa olmak üzere NATO müttefikleri için de ciddi bir risk oluşturuyor. Türkiye'nin stratejik önemi tartışılmaz. Karadeniz'e açılan boğazları kontrol ediyor, Suriye, Irak ve İran'la komşu ve Avrupa'nın güvenliğini doğrudan etkileyen kriz bölgelerinin tam ortasında yer alıyor. Silahlı kuvvetlerimiz NATO'nun en büyük ordularından biri, savunma sanayimiz ise Avrupa...

Erdoğan’s Assault On Democracy Is A Threat To Turkey’s Allies*

by Özgür Özel Authoritarian rule and imprisonment of political opponents could destabilise Nato and the region As world leaders gather in Ankara for the Nato summit next week, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will use the occasion to project strength. But that image masks a deeper vulnerability: his growing repression of Turkish democracy. His government has detained peaceful protesters — along with lawyers, journalists and academics — while trying to hide the country’s realities from the world. That is bad for Turkey. It also poses a danger to our Nato partners, especially in Europe. Turkey’s strategic importance is self-evident. It controls access to the Black Sea; borders Syria, Iraq and Iran; and sits close to conflicts that repeatedly test European security. Our armed forces are among Nato’s largest, while our defence industry is increasingly essential to Europe’s security. Yet this strategic strength masks a darker reality. Turkey’s economy is under severe strain: inflation remains...

3 IRGC Members Killed in Twin Attacks as Iran Intensifies Kurdish Crackdown

At least three members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed this week in separate armed attacks, one near Iran's border with Iraqi Kurdistan, as authorities intensify a crackdown on Kurdish groups, according to Al-Monitor. In the western Kermanshah province, the IRGC's public relations office said armed men on motorcycles opened fire on the home of a local IRGC member in the border town of Paveh on Monday evening, killing two guards identified as Borhan Karisani and Khaled Khaledi, per Al-Monitor. Two others were wounded; the Norway-based rights group Hengaw identified them as Kamel Hajiji, reported to be in a coma, and Kamal Abdi, Al-Monitor reported. A separate attack struck Iran's southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan province, where gunmen fired on the car of IRGC member Amirhossein Arbabi as he left guard headquarters in Saravan, killing him and his wife, Fatemeh Bamaripour, Hengaw told Al-Monitor. State television described the victims only...

Israel's Armenian Genocide Recognition: The Right Move, Questionable Timing

Israel's government has voted to officially recognize the Armenian genocide, a decision announced by Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar in a June 25 post on X and approved by the cabinet three days later. But according to Stefan Ihrig, writing in Haaretz, the timing of the move "has much more to do with regional and internal politics than moral and historical questions." The decision follows years of ambiguity. Last year, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave a terse “I just did. Here you go” when asked in a podcast interview whether Israel recognized the genocide, but no formal action followed. Sa'ar's announcement changed that, stating that recognizing "the genocide perpetrated against the Armenian people in the final years of the Ottoman Empire is both a moral and historical duty." Ihrig, head of the Haifa Center for German and European Studies at the University of Haifa, does not dispute the historical fact of the genocide or Israel's duty to rec...

Bad News for Trump and Israel: Progressive Wave Topples Longtime Colorado Democrat

Add Colorado to the list of headaches piling up for Donald Trump and Israel's staunchest backers in Washington. Melat Kiros, a 29-year-old democratic socialist, is projected to win her Democratic primary in Colorado's 1st Congressional District, unseating Rep. Diana DeGette, who has held the seat since 1997, according to Haaretz. The result adds Kiros to a fast-growing bloc of progressive candidates — including recent winners in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Texas — who campaigned explicitly on overhauling U.S. support for Israel, Haaretz reported. Given the district's heavily Democratic lean, Kiros is considered a near-lock to win the November general election, which would make her the first Gen Z woman elected to Congress. Kiros's platform calls for a total arms embargo on Israel, including defensive weapons, and she has described the October 7 attacks as "the inevitable consequence of apartheid, of decades of occupation," remarks she made during a ...

EU Delegation's Ankara Visit Skips Rights Agenda, Focuses on Security and Trade, Veteran Columnist Notes

A European Union delegation is set to arrive in Ankara on June 30, just ahead of next week's NATO Summit, with an agenda that prioritizes security, migration and commercial interests over Turkey's human rights record, according to prominent Turkish columnist Murat Yetkin, writing in his column published June 29. Yetkin, a veteran political analyst, reported that the delegation will be led by EU Commission Vice-President and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, accompanied by Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos and Commissioner for Home Affairs and Migration Magnus Brunner. On the Turkish side, the visitors are expected to meet Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu, and Trade Minister Ömer Bolat. According to the columnist, the composition of both delegations signals where Brussels' real priorities lie: military and diplomatic cooperation, infrast...

Pro-Trump Media Rally Behind Doha Diplomacy as MAGA Split Over Iran War Persists

As the United States and Iran moved to halt four days of tit-for-tat strikes around the Strait of Hormuz and convene fresh talks in Doha, the MAGA and pro-Trump American media over the past 24 hours have coalesced around a single dominant message: President Donald Trump is negotiating from a position of overwhelming strength, and any renewed Iranian aggression will be answered with force. That framing was set at the top by the White House and amplified across conservative outlets. Speaking on Fox News' "Fox & Friends," press secretary Karoline Leavitt declared that Washington was "holding up our end of the ceasefire" and warned bluntly that "violence will be met with violence." She cast Tehran as the party that stands to lose most, predicting that continued aggression would leave Iran to "prove themselves to be the pariah of the Middle East" and alienated from its Gulf and Arab partners. Fox News reported that the diplomatic track was be...

Iraq's "Dawn Crackdown": Al-Zaidi's Anti-Corruption Campaign Sweeps the Green Zone

Iraq is in the grip of one of the most sweeping anti-corruption operations in its post-2003 history. In the early hours of June 28, elite Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) units sealed Baghdad's fortified Green Zone and fanned out across multiple provinces in what Iraqi media have dubbed the "Dawn Crackdown" — a campaign ordered personally by the country's new Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi. According to Shafaq News, Iraqi security forces detained 67 officials, lawmakers, and businessmen across Baghdad and several provinces, in operations carried out under the direct supervision of the prime minister. Officials describe this as the first phase of a wider campaign that could reach more than 200 senior figures within 72 hours. The state news agency INA initially reported 47 detainees, while other counts have since risen above fifty. The state news agency named a roster of prominent figures. Those held are led by Muthanna al-Samarrai, head of the al-Azm Alliance and a membe...

Iran Is Winning the Battle of Hormuz*

The best selling point for President Trump’s memorandum of understanding with Iran was that at least it opened the Strait of Hormuz. Well, now the regime is trying to nullify those terms by using force against commercial vessels, Gulf states and U.S. bases. All of this violates the deal and calls into question why Mr. Trump signed it. On Thursday Iran struck a container ship transiting the Strait with a drone. The U.S. responded on Friday with strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radars. It announced the strike after markets closed as if to demonstrate the economic constraints on U.S. military action. Iran then hit a tanker carrying Qatari crude. The U.S. retaliated again against Iranian military sites and has escorted oil tankers with heavy air cover. Iran then fired drones and missiles at civilian targets and U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. “It is very possible that they will never learn,” Mr. Trump wrote of Iran’s regime on Saturday night. Or is it U.S. d...