The Levant Files

In a significant escalation of the Middle East conflict, Saudi Arabia has formally invoked its Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with Pakistan following a series of Iranian missile and drone attacks on Saudi territory.  The pact, signed in September 2025, commits both nations to treat any aggression against one as an attack on both, mirroring NATO’s Article 5. The invocation came after Iran targeted key Saudi infrastructure, including the Ras Tanura oil refinery and Prince Sultan Air Base, which hosts thousands of U.S. troops.  Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman confirmed the move during a high-level meeting with Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, on March 7.  “We discussed Iranian attacks on the Kingdom and the measures needed to halt them within the framework of our Joint Strategic Defense Agreement,” Prince Khalid stated on social media. The meeting marked the first operational test of the pact, which includes joint deterrence, intell...

We’re live! https://substack.com/@thelevantfiles This is a new space for sharp reporting, clear-eyed analysis, and deeper context on the Levant and the forces shaping the region. At a time when headlines move fast and nuance gets lost, The Levant Files is here to slow things down, ask better questions, and follow the story beyond the news cycle. Expect writing that cuts through noise and cliché. Expect close attention to politics, power, history, media, and the realities on the ground. Expect a publication committed to insight over spectacle. The Levant Files is for readers who want more than fragments and hot takes. It is for those looking for substance, perspective, and a more serious engagement with one of the most important and misunderstood regions in the world. Whether you are a long-time observer of the region or just beginning to follow its complexities, this is your invitation to join from the start. Subscribe, follow, and share:   https://substack.com/@thelevantfiles...

The clearest takeaway from the latest public remarks is that Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are now signaling two different political timelines for the same war. On March 9, Trump told CBS News that the war was “very complete, pretty much,” argued that Iran had “nothing left in a military sense,” and said the operation was “very far ahead of schedule,” while separately telling reporters that it would be “ended soon.”  On March 10, by contrast, Netanyahu said Israel was “breaking their bones — and we are not done yet,” framing the campaign not as a near-finished operation but as an ongoing effort to weaken Iran’s ruling system and encourage internal political rupture.  That difference matters because both leaders are speaking to different strategic pressures. Trump’s language reads like an attempt to compress expectations, reassure markets, and show that U.S. objectives are limited and largely achieved.  Even when he warned that Iran would face far harder blows if it ...

The People’s Daily — the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and the most authoritative vehicle for Beijing’s policy positions — recently published an editorial-length commentary condemning the US-Israeli military strikes against Iran. The piece, which carries the unmistakable imprimatur of the Party’s propaganda apparatus, constitutes one of the most explicit Chinese articulations to date of how Beijing interprets the unfolding crisis and, more broadly, of how it wishes to position itself within the resulting geopolitical realignment. The Core Argument: International Law as a Red Line The People’s Daily article is built around a single organising principle: that the US-Israeli strikes, conducted without the authorisation of the United Nations Security Council, represent a fundamental violation of international law and the norms governing interstate relations. The commentary traces the prohibition on the use of force back to the Kellogg-Briand Pac...

Writing in the Russian daily Izvestia, economist Nikita Illeritsky — a senior research fellow at the Centre for Central Asian Studies of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia at the Russian Academy of Sciences — offered from Moscow’s perspective a sweeping energy-geopolitical reading of the current US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. The article, entitled “By Right of the Strong”, frames the American posture toward both Iran and Venezuela as fundamentally driven by Washington’s long-term energy insecurity, rather than by the Arab-Israeli conflict or nonproliferation concerns per se. Iran’s Untapped Gas: A Strategic Prize Illeritsky’s central argument, as articulated in Izvestia, is that Iran remains the last major holder of natural gas reserves — an estimated 33 trillion cubic metres, or roughly 17% of the global total — that have yet to be monetised on international markets. Despite Tehran’s considerable progress in developing its gas sector over the past three and a hal...

By Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias The US–Israel military campaign against Iran, launched on 28 February 2026 under Operation Epic Fury, was initially framed as a targeted strike against Tehran’s nuclear programme and military leadership. Ten days later, it has metastasised into something far larger: a full-blown systemic crisis threatening the foundations of the global economy. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran’s retaliatory missile barrages across the Gulf, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have combined to produce the most severe energy supply shock in half a century — one that is now cascading through oil markets, equity exchanges, currency systems, and central bank policy frameworks with devastating speed. As of Monday 9 March, Brent crude has spiked near $120 per barrel, Asian stock markets are in freefall, and G7 finance ministers are scrambling to coordinate an emergency release of strategic petroleum reserves. The conflict’s transformation from a reg...

U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent remarks on the Kurdish issue have heightened concerns that Kurdish actors in Iraq and Iran are being pushed into a perilous frontline role in a broader confrontation with Tehran. In his comments in the YouTube, which were rebroadcasted by the Açık Gazete, the seasoned Middle East affairs expert, Turkish journalist Fehim Taştekin, reminded us that Trump had declared that if Kurds wanted to attack Iran, “that would be great,” indicating an unusually explicit endorsement of opening a new pressure point along Iran’s western border. However, later, he changed his stance and stated that Kurds would not be involved in the war.  According to Taştekin, Trump’s position went beyond rhetoric. Fehim Taştekin said Trump’s conversations with Iraqi and Iranian Kurdish figures included offers of air support and broader protection if they moved to seize areas in western Iran. Taştekin argued that this was the clearest indication yet that Washington was willing t...

Ο Μοτζτάμπα Χαμενεΐ είναι πλέον ο νέος Ανώτατος Ηγέτης της Ισλαμικής Δημοκρατίας του Ιράν. Το BBC World News και πλήθος διεθνών μέσων ενημέρωσης επιβεβαίωσαν επίσημα την είδηση την Κυριακή 8 Μαρτίου, λίγες ημέρες αφότου η ενημερωτική πύλη The Levant Files την είχε ήδη αποκαλύψει. Η εξέλιξη αυτή ακολουθεί τον θάνατο του Αγιατολάχ Αλί Χαμενεΐ στις 28 Φεβρουαρίου, όταν το Ιράν δέχθηκε κοινή αμερικανο-ισραηλινή αεροπορική επιδρομή στην πρωτεύουσα. Στην ίδια επίθεση, σύμφωνα με πληροφορίες που επιβεβαιώθηκαν εκ των υστέρων, σκοτώθηκε και η σύζυγος του Μοτζτάμπα, Ζέρα Χαντάντ Άντελ. Η Μεταβίβαση Εξουσίας που Ανατρέπει τους Κανόνες Η ανάληψη εξουσίας από τον Μοτζτάμπα Χαμενεΐ, γιο του εκλιπόντος ηγέτη, αποτελεί πρωτοφανές γεγονός στην ιστορία της Ισλαμικής Δημοκρατίας — ενός συστήματος που επίσημα απορρίπτει την κληρονομική διαδοχή εξουσίας. Σύμφωνα με πηγές που επικαλείται το BBC, το Συμβούλιο Εμπειρογνωμόνων κατέληξε στην επιλογή αυτή υπό ισχυρές πιέσεις από τους Φρουρούς της Επανάστασης. Η...

The Levant Files’ın günler önce duyurduğu bilgi, uluslararası medya tarafından da doğrulandı. BBC World News ve çeşitli uluslararası haber kuruluşları, Mücteba Hamaney’in İran İslam Cumhuriyeti’nin yeni dini lideri olduğunu pazar gecesi resmen doğruladı. Buna göre Mücteba Hamaney, babası Ayetullah Ali Hamaney’in 28 Şubat 2026’da Tahran’a düzenlenen ortak ABD-İsrail hava saldırısında hayatını kaybetmesinin ardından ülkenin en üst makamını devraldı. 8 Mart’ta dünya kamuoyuna yansıyan bu gelişme, The Levant Files’ın dört gün önce yayımladığı özel haberi de doğrulamış oldu. The Levant Files, “Mücteba Hamaney Kimdir? İran’ın Yeni Dini Lideri” başlıklı özel dosyasında, Uzmanlar Meclisi’nin İran Devrim Muhafızlarının yoğun baskısı altında Mücteba Hamaney’i yeni lider olarak belirlediğini yazmıştı. BBC’nin son yayınıyla birlikte, bu bilgi uluslararası düzeyde de teyit edilmiş oldu. Meşruiyet tartışmaları büyüyor Uluslararası haber ağlarında yayımlanan doğrulama, İran’da Ali Hamaney sonrası dön...