The Levant Files

  Tensions in the US-Iran conflict escalated sharply over the past 12–24 hours as the United States conducted a fresh round of airstrikes on Iranian military targets in direct response to an Iranian attack on a commercial vessel and Tehran’s declaration closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on US and allied military sites across multiple Gulf countries, raising fears of a broader regional war. The Trigger: Attack on the M/V GFS Galaxy and Closure of the Strait Early on July 12, 2026 (local time), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy targeted the Cyprus-flagged container ship M/V GFS Galaxy in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces fired on the vessel for allegedly using an “unauthorized route” and ignoring directions to transit through Iranian-controlled waters. The attack damaged the engine room, sparked a fire, and forced the crew to abandon ship in lifeboats. One crew member remains missing. In the immediate aftermath, the...

  In what future journalism textbooks may charitably describe as "an ambitious geography own-goal," Turkey's Sözcü newspaper has managed the impressive feat of being furious at the correct topic, aimed at entirely the wrong institution, and somehow still confident about the whole thing. Here is what actually happened, for anyone keeping score at home. On 8 July, the European Parliament — Brussels, EU, the actual legislature Turkey has spent decades not joining — passed a resolution on the effects of Turkey's 1974 intervention on Cypriot women and girls, drafted under rapporteur Eleonora Meleti of the FEMM Committee. Ankara's Foreign Ministry, never one to let an insult go unrebutted, declared the resolution "null and void" the following day and accused it of harbouring baseless slander against the Turkish Armed Forces. A perfectly ordinary diplomatic spat, by regional standards. And then Sözcü arrived, notebook in hand, apparently having left its atlas...

  Russia has indicated it views a potential sale of S-400 air defence systems currently operated by Turkey to the United Arab Emirates in a favorable light, according to multiple sources cited by Middle East Eye (MEE), though the outlet reported that negotiations have not yet been finalized. The S-400 systems, which Turkey purchased from Russia in 2019, led to Turkey's expulsion from the F-35 fighter jet programme and prompted a series of US sanctions targeting Turkey's defence industry. Six F-35 jets remain in US storage after their transfer to Turkey was blocked by American legislation in 2020. According to MEE, the S-400 issue and Turkey's potential return to the F-35 programme have become central topics of discussion as Washington and Ankara have worked to repair relations since Donald Trump returned to office in 2025. Under the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act, the US government must confirm that Turkey no longer possesses the S-400 systems before Turkey can r...

  The NATO Summit held in Ankara this week served as more than a diplomatic gathering — it doubled as a showcase for arms manufacturers and cemented new defense-industry partnerships that bind Turkish capital more tightly to the broader war economy, according to a report published by the Turkish outlet soL Haber. Running parallel to the summit, a "Defense Industry Forum" was staged at TUSAŞ facilities, functioning less as a conventional forum and more as an arms fair where military officials and executives unveiled new projects and signed symbolic contracts, soL Haber reported. Turkey took part as a participating country in all seven defense-industry projects announced at the gathering, according to the outlet. Details of two projects remain undisclosed, while the remaining five carry a combined value of $74 billion, with Turkey serving as a direct producer in four of them, soL Haber said. Satellites, Radar and a Symbolic Green Light for KAAN Among the announcements, NATO ...

Iran is grappling with an escalating cost-of-living crisis that has left basic food staples increasingly out of reach for ordinary citizens, according to a new analysis published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The report, part of CSIS's "Charting the Middle East" series and authored by Lilya Yatim, draws on data from the World Food Programme (WFP) showing that the price of wheat flour in Iran rose by 124 percent in May compared to November 2025 — the period just before a sharp depreciation of the rial triggered widespread protests across the country. Prices for beef, chicken and cooking oil have also climbed sharply over the same period, according to the WFP figures cited by CSIS. The scale of the economic damage became fully visible only after May 26, when Iranian authorities lifted a three-month internet blackout imposed during the war with the United States and Israel. According to CSIS, the shutdown had obscured the extent of the coun...

     Qatari and Pakistani mediators work to bring Washington and Tehran back to the table after a wave of strikes and a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to unravel the June 17 memorandum of understanding. Qatar has stepped up its mediation between the United States and Iran this week, working alongside Pakistan to prevent the collapse of a fragile ceasefire that has been tested by fresh military strikes, an attack on a Qatari-linked tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and the conclusion of week-long funeral processions for slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Regional sources say Doha and Islamabad are working behind the scenes to bring the two sides back to the negotiating table after the truce reached under the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) showed signs of unravelling, with both Washington and Tehran trading blame over renewed strikes in recent days. Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul...

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has stepped up drone strikes on the central city of El-Obeid, targeting fuel depots, power stations and water infrastructure in an apparent bid to weaken the Sudanese army's grip on the strategically vital hub before a feared ground assault, according to reporting from the area. The Sudanese army says it remains in control of El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state, but the RSF has continued strikes aimed at degrading the city's defenses and pressuring civilians to flee, even as escape routes grow increasingly perilous. A City on the Edge The UN's human rights office has warned of an impending "catastrophe" in El-Obeid, cautioning that the city could become the next site of major ground combat between the army and the RSF, following the paramilitary's capture of El-Fasher in North Darfur last October after an 18-month siege. Independent investigators concluded that the assault on El-Fasher bore ...

Iran has yet to grant the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to nuclear facilities damaged in the recent Israeli and American strikes, and the country's stockpile of enriched uranium remains unaccounted for at those sites, according to a report by Kayhan London. Citing an interview IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi gave to the Russian outlet RIA Novosti, Kayhan London reported that Iran's enriched uranium reserves have not been removed from — or verified at — the facilities struck by Israeli and U.S. forces. Grossi stressed the necessity of inspector access to the sites, saying the Agency had formally requested such access from Tehran but "has not yet received a response," Kayhan London quoted him as saying. The report noted that Iranian officials have pushed back firmly against any near-term inspection. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi was cited as saying there is "no plan" to allow the Agency access to the attacked facilities or ...

With more than 170 American strikes on Iranian soil in forty-eight hours, missiles falling on four Gulf states and Jordan, and “technical talks” somehow still alive, the US–Iran confrontation has settled into a self-sustaining rhythm of bombardment and half-hearted negotiation — with no exit visible on the horizon. If the past week has demonstrated anything, it is that the war between the United States and Iran has stopped being a conflict that moves toward either victory or peace. It has become a system — a closed loop in which strikes generate talks, talks generate strikes, and both sides have learned to live inside the wreckage of their own agreements. The June memorandum of understanding, signed with theatrical solemnity by Donald Trump at Versailles and Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, survived barely three weeks. Its collapse this week surprised no one, least of all its authors. A Ceasefire That Was Never Quite a Ceasefire The chronology of the collapse follows a script t...