The Levant Files

In a wide-ranging interview with broadcaster Mario Nawfal on X, Ambassador Tom Barrack floats a political motive behind Israel's Abu al-Duhur airstrike, says Israel still 'occupies' the Golan Heights, and calls for Iran and Hezbollah to be part of any Lebanon settlement — drawing a sharp rebuke from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz US Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy for Syria and Iraq Tom Barrack has suggested that Israel's airstrike this week on a Syrian military airbase near the Turkish border may have been a deliberate attempt to provoke Ankara ahead of Israel's autumn election, in a wide-ranging interview broadcast on X (formerly Twitter) that has reignited tensions between Washington's senior regional envoy and the Israeli government. Speaking to Lebanese-Australian entrepreneur and broadcaster Mario Nawfal in an interview aired on Friday, August 21, Barrack — who holds the dual role of US ambassador to Ankara and special presidential envoy for S...

Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias TLF Genel Yayın Yönetmeni; Lefkoşa Üniversitesi'nde Türkiye-İran ilişkileri ve rekabeti alanında araştırmacı; tarihçi ve gazeteci Yazının İngilizce versiyonu için tıklayın . Birkaç yıl önce, Fenerbahçe’nin Türkiye Süper Ligi’ne son derece kötü başladığı sezonlardan birinde, kulübün efsane eski futbolcusu Rıdvan Dilmen, kamuoyunun hafızasına kazınan şu sözleri sarf etmişti: “Kırmızı kar yağar, Fenerbahçe küme düşmez.” Bugün ben de özellikle İsrail, Kıbrıs, Türkiye ve Yunanistan’da Türkiye ile İsrail arasında doğrudan bir askerî çatışma yaşanacağını kendinden emin bir şekilde öngören analistlere ve akademisyenlere benzer bir yanıt vermeyi seçiyorum: Bu iki ülke açık bir savaşa girmeden önce kırmızı karın yağmasını beklemeliyiz. Suriye’nin İdlib bölgesinde kısa süre önce yaşanan ciddi olaydan sonra dâhi bu değerlendirmem değişmiş değil. Bu görüş sempatiye, duygulara ya da temennilere dayanmıyor. Sahadaki güç dengesi ile uluslararası ilişkilerde birbiriyle bağlant...

By Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias, TLF Chief Editor, Researcher, Historian, Journalist At dawn on Saturday, The Levant Files received an unusual piece of correspondence. It came from a figure within the Israeli establishment — one who, for reasons readily understood, preferred to remain unnamed in this piece of opinion— responding to our recent opinion piece, " Expect Turkey-Israel War When Red Snow Falls ." What follows is not a rebuttal in the conventional sense, but a necessary continuation of a conversation the region can scarcely afford to leave unfinished. Our correspondent's letter was, in its way, a generous one. He conceded the essential thesis: that neither Israel nor Turkey seeks open conflict. Yet he was equally insistent that our analysis had left too much unspoken. Turkey's posture toward Hamas, he argued, is not the diplomatic hedging Ankara presents it as, but tacit alignment with an organization whose 2023 atrocities laid bare the true character of the region...

  When Karoline Leavitt announced on August 12 that she would step down as White House press secretary at the end of the month, the official explanation was simple: motherhood. Leavitt, 28, said she could not "be the best mom my two young children deserve" while holding one of the most demanding jobs in Washington, and President Donald Trump praised her as one of the best press secretaries in the history of the office. But an alternative account is circulating — and it deserves to be treated with considerable caution, given its origin. Nournews, an outlet linked to Iran's Supreme National Security Council, published a report this week claiming Leavitt's resignation was not about family at all, but the culmination of a bureaucratic power struggle inside Trump's inner circle. Citing an unnamed senior NBC journalist and unspecified "informed sources," Nournews alleges that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had long sought to ...

Beijing calls for diplomacy as Washington threatens to isolate Iran's economy and its trading partners, with China — Iran's top oil buyer — squarely in the crosshairs ahead of a planned Trump-Xi summit China has firmly rejected US President Donald Trump's threat to unleash what he called the "most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country" on Iran, warning that sanctions and pressure will not resolve the six-month-old crisis. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters at a regular briefing in Beijing that "sanctions and pressure will not help resolve the issue," urging "relevant parties to take responsible measures and seek to solve the issue through diplomatic and political means." Lin repeated the message at a follow-up briefing, saying such measures do not "fit the interest of any party." The pushback follows a Truth Social post Trump published Wednesday evening, in which he vowed "Economic ...

By Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias, Chief Editor of TLF, Research Fellow in the Nicosia University in the field of Turkish-Iranian relations/rivarly, Historian, Journalist A few years ago, during one of Fenerbahçe’s dreadful starts to the Turkish Süper Lig, the club’s legendary former footballer Rıdvan Dilmen captured the public imagination with an unforgettable remark: “Kırmızı kar yağar, Fenerbahçe küme düşmez”—red snow will fall before Fenerbahçe is relegated. Today, I offer a similar answer to those analysts and academics—particularly in Israel, Cyprus, Turkey and Greece—who confidently predict a direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel: red snow will fall before these two countries enter an open war. This judgment remains unchanged even after the grave recent incident in Idlib, Syria. It is not based on sympathy, sentiment or wishful thinking. It rests on the balance of forces on the ground and on three interconnected approaches in international relations: neorealism, middle-...

Women are increasingly appearing in public without headscarves across Tehran and other Iranian cities, turning everyday streets, cafés and shopping districts into the frontline of a renewed confrontation between society and the Islamic Republic’s conservative establishment. Although compulsory veiling remains legally required, the morality patrols that once dominated public spaces have largely disappeared from routine street life. Residents report that women now walk unveiled—and sometimes in short sleeves—in Tehran, Isfahan, Rasht and even traditionally conservative Mashhad. The change, accelerated during Iran’s recent war, is widely viewed as an extension of the “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising triggered by Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody in 2022. RFE/RL reported⁠ in June that enforcement had visibly weakened across major cities, although restrictions continued inside government institutions. The growing defiance is now provoking increasingly alarming warnings. Major General Ba...

Iran is closely monitoring developments across neighboring countries, with particular attention focused on Azerbaijan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Syria, Iranian sources familiar with Tehran’s regional security assessments told The Levant Files. The sources said the Islamic Republic is increasingly concerned that its neighbors could provide the United States and Israel with military, logistical or intelligence opportunities that might be used against Iranian territory. Although Tehran continues to convey many of its concerns through diplomatic and security channels, the sources warned that further hostile activity originating from neighboring states could prompt a severe response. Iranian frustration appears particularly pronounced toward Azerbaijan, whose expanding relations and cooperation with Washington and Israel are being scrutinised closely in Tehran. “This is a situation that we constantly monitor,” one source said. “We have already delivered the necessary precautionar...

Iran may be close to securing a diplomatic breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian sources told The Levant Files, while warning that mounting American economic and military pressure could trigger a wider confrontation if Washington crosses Tehran’s strategic red lines. The sources portrayed the Islamic Republic as committed to diplomacy but prepared to respond forcefully to any attempt to isolate the country, undermine its regional alliances or threaten its interests. Their remarks also contained carefully calibrated messages for Turkey, Cyprus and Greece over their relations with the United States and Israel. One Iranian diplomatic source said Tehran’s preference for a negotiated settlement was demonstrated by its continuing contacts with Oman, which has traditionally maintained channels of communication with the Islamic Republic. “We are very close to a new diplomatic achievement concerning the Strait of Hormuz,” the source said. “As two friendly neighboring countries, we a...