The Levant Files

Brussels failed to deliver the concrete openings expected by Turkey, while making progress on Cyprus a precondition for any advancement in Turkey–EU relations. Ankara’s response was not to soften its Cyprus policy, but to adopt a more cautious and rigid stance. The cautious optimism prior to UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ visit is now giving way to an increasingly pronounced uncertainty. Until recently, UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ visit to Cyprus was viewed against the backdrop of an unusually hopeful atmosphere—one not seen in a long time. On the island, there was a Turkish Cypriot leader who had returned to the framework of a federal settlement, a Greek Cypriot leader claiming readiness for negotiations, a UN Secretary-General putting his personal political weight behind the process, and finally, a European Union eager to assume a more active role. This alignment raised expectations that a new and serious diplomatic process could, at the very least, be initiated. A...

"Years of lawlessness and impunity for attacks has turned the West Bank into a powder keg waiting to explode, and decisive action is urgently needed." — Sarah Sanbar, Human Rights Watch A localized confrontation between Israeli settlers and local residents in the northern West Bank village of Tell has sparked a major military crackdown and a wave of vigilante violence. Over the past 24 hours, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) deployed five additional combat companies, raided a major hospital in Nablus, and imposed military lockdowns on dozens of Palestinian communities. Simultaneously, Palestinian officials warned that widespread retaliatory arson and assaults by armed Israeli settlers are pushing the region toward an uncontrollable spiral. The Catalyst: Deadly Shootout in Tell The current surge in violence traces back to the morning of Friday, July 24. According to local accounts and witness reports, a group of 25 to 50 Israeli settlers—including armed individuals from the ne...

Kyiv's long-range operation lands hours after Washington declared Moscow "not participating" in the war against Iran. The sequence invites a reading — but not, on the available evidence, a conclusion. A Ukrainian long-range drone operation in the Caspian Sea has killed at least one sailor aboard an Iranian commercial vessel and injured another, opening a maritime front in a theatre that until now had figured in the Russia–Ukraine war mainly as a launch platform for Kalibr cruise missiles. Tehran's Foreign Ministry confirmed the explosion, summoned Ukraine's chargé d'affaires in Tehran, and denounced what it called a hostile and criminal act. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pressed the case with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, urging a decisive European response. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said its long-range drone operators struck a set of targets deep inside Russia overnight, including air-defence assets near Rostov-on-Don and several vessels ...

While the pause in direct U.S.-Iranian strikes offers brief breathing room for Omani diplomacy, the simultaneous escalation in the Caspian Sea and Red Sea demonstrates that the conflict's strategic footprint continues to broaden across Eastern Europe and the Middle East. A fragile tactical pause took hold between the United States and Iran on Sunday following nearly two weeks of intense direct strikes, opening a narrow diplomatic window mediated by Oman. However, even as Washington and Tehran refrained from direct bombardments overnight, the conflict expanded into new territory with a dramatic Ukrainian attack on Iranian shipping in the Caspian Sea and renewed Houthi strikes on Saudi oil facilities. Pause Driven by Munition Constraints and Diplomacy For the second consecutive night, U.S. military forces paused airstrikes on targets inside Iran following 13 straight days of heavy aerial bombardment. In a mirrored response, Iranian army spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akraminia confirm...

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a direct warning to the United Kingdom and regional allies, declaring that Britain and any country supporting the United States in a conflict with Tehran will become a "definite and legitimate target" for military retaliation. According to reporting published by Reuters on July 25, a spokesperson for Iran's Revolutionary Guards delivered an explicit ultimatum on Saturday during an interview broadcast on Iranian state broadcaster IRIB. The spokesperson stated that Britain, along with Gulf states and any other nation backing the United States in a conflict, would be considered a legitimate military target. The spokesperson specifically highlighted that U.S. strategic bombers had recently utilized British airfields to support operational activities. The Levant Files Warned First Saturday's statement represents a continuation and widening of threats previously analyzed in detail by The Levant Files on July 24. Th...

UPDATE AND CORRECTION An earlier version of this report, following Turkish Cypriot media accounts, described the person at the centre of this case as a serving diplomat. The Levant Files has since established the following corrections. He is not currently a “diplomat”, although he may have held diplomatic status previously. He is an international official of the Council of Europe, and he is posted in Strasbourg — not Brussels, as several outlets reported. He is the spouse of an internationally unrecognized “TRNC” diplomat. The Levant Files is not naming him: he is a private individual facing pending proceedings, and his identity is not material to the public interest in the case. A second correction concerns the substance of the case. Kıbrıs Postası reports that this is not a request for a witness statement, as initially described, but a court summons, and that the property was not a relative's but one the official himself purchased in 2011 and resold in 2023. The hearing has been ...

İran Devrim Muhafızları Ordusu'nun (IRGC) Birleşik Krallık’ın askerî tesislerine yönelik giderek sertleşen tehditleri, Kıbrıs'taki Egemen Üs Bölgeleri'ni (Akrotiri ve Dikelya, SBA) yeniden gündeme taşıdı. IRGC'nin "46 Numaralı Açıklama" olarak bilinen ve Press TV ile Tasnim aracılığıyla yayımlanan bildirisinde, Birleşik Krallık'ın İran'a yönelik ABD ve İsrail askeri operasyonlarına "en büyük katkıyı" sağladığı öne sürülüyor ve "İran topraklarına yönelik saldırganlıkta kullanılan her üs, meşru bir hedeftir" ifadesi kullanılıyor. Açık Uçlu Tehdit Bildiride adı geçen tesisler Birleşik Krallık’taki RAF Fairford ile Hint Okyanusu'ndaki Diego Garcia ile sınırlı olsa da, Akrotiri ve Dikelya'nın ismen anılmaması güvenlik uzmanlarını rahatlatmıyor. Lefkoşa merkezli bir güvenlik kaynağı, Tahran'ın dilinin "kapalı bir liste değil, bir kategoriyi" hedef aldığını ve Akrotiri'nin bu tanımın dışında kalmasının güç olduğun...

Israeli forces have launched a sweeping crackdown across the occupied West Bank, carrying out extensive raids and mass arrests in the wake of a deadly confrontation around the Palestinian village of Tell, southwest of Nablus, in which at least four Palestinians and one Israeli were killed. According to Shafaq News, the operation began hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz ordered a “wide-scale” military response. Israeli Raids Across the West Bank As reported by Shafaq News, Israeli troops raided multiple Palestinian towns and villages overnight and into Saturday, including Tell and several communities in the northern and central West Bank, as part of an expanded military operation ordered by Netanyahu and Katz. According to the same report, soldiers stormed dozens of homes in Tell, detained around 50 Palestinian residents, and conducted intensive searches in roughly 70 houses, while additional arrest campaigns were carried out in other localiti...

A Greek-operated Patriot air defense system in Saudi Arabia intercepted two ballistic missiles launched from Yemen and aimed at oil refineries in the Red Sea city of Yanbu, according to Greek security sources cited by Reuters and The Jerusalem Post.  Saudi Civil Defense issued an emergency alert for Yanbu residents during the incident. Greece has deployed a US-made Patriot battery to Saudi Arabia since 2021 under an agreement intended to help safeguard the kingdom’s critical energy infrastructure; Saturday’s engagement was the second time Greek personnel had operated the system in an interception The incident came after the Saudi-led coalition said it had struck Houthi military positions in Yemen’s Hodeidah governorate, alleging the sites had been used to threaten commercial maritime traffic. Houthi-affiliated Al Masirah TV reported strikes on telecommunications facilities in Hodeidah city and on Kamaran Island. Coalition spokesman Turki al-Malki said Hodeidah port had not been tar...