The Levant Files

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's pro-Western Civil Contract heads into Sunday's election as the clear front-runner, while a fragmented opposition and a wall of undecided voters keep the outcome from being a foregone conclusion. Armenians vote on Sunday in a parliamentary election widely seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's drive to pull the small South Caucasus nation out of Russia's orbit and toward Europe. More than 2.48 million citizens are eligible to choose the members of the National Assembly's ninth convocation, in a contest both sides have framed as nothing less than a fight for the country's survival. Pashinyan's Civil Contract party enters election day as the undisputed front-runner. A final pre-election survey by EVN Report's Armenian Election Study put the prime minister's job approval at 53 percent — up from 36 percent earlier in the campaign — while a late-May poll by the International Republican Institute placed the...

Tehran's foreign ministry accuses Joseph Aoun of 'betrayal' after he calls Lebanon a 'bargaining chip,' opening a new front in an already volatile crisis A bitter war of words erupted between Lebanon and Iran over the past 72 hours, with Tehran's Foreign Ministry delivering a stinging personal rebuke to Lebanese President Joseph Aoun after he accused Iran of exploiting his country as a pawn in its confrontation with Washington and Israel. The latest escalation came on Saturday, when Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei took to social media to hit back at Aoun. Writing pointedly in Arabic with a distinctly Lebanese dialect, Baghaei accused the president of political treachery: "He sells the one standing next to him and buys the one standing against him. He leaves the one who supported him and follows the one who choked him." The remark, posted on X, framed Aoun as abandoning an ally in favor of Lebanon's adversaries. The diplomatic spa...

A multibillion-dollar luxury resort plan backed by Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump has erupted into Albania's gravest political crisis in years, drawing thousands into the streets, freezing developer assets, and opening a diplomatic rift with neighboring Greece. Kushner first presented his vision for Albania's Adriatic coast roughly two years ago, after spotting the uninhabited island of Sazan — a former secret communist military base — during a 2021 yacht trip. His investment firm, Affinity Partners, alongside Qatari investors, secured "strategic investor" status for a sprawling development of hotels, villas and a marina. Reports describe plans for as many as 10,000 hotel rooms across Sazan and the protected Vjosa-Narta coastal wetland near Zvernec, with a total budget variously estimated between €1.4 billion and more than €4 billion. The government markets it as a world-class eco-resort that could turn Albania into a global tourism destination. Why Albanians are furi...

Writing for the  Al Mayadeen  Jamal Wakim stresses that US President Donald Trump has once again rattled the Gulf region with unexpected remarks, this time directing threats toward the Sultanate of Oman. Trump warned Muscat against coordinating with Iran on imposing transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz, given that both nations share control over the strategic waterway. While the warning appears tied to ongoing US-Iranian tensions over the strait, analysts point to deeper motives behind Trump's position—chief among them the ambitions of the United Arab Emirates and its leader, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to expand regional influence at the expense of long-established powers, including Saudi Arabia and Oman. According to observers, the Emirati leadership has been leveraging well-funded lobbying networks in Washington to shape US policies on matters critical to Abu Dhabi, including its simmering dispute with Muscat. A central figure in this effort is Tahnoon bin Za...

When US President Donald Trump confirmed this week that he had called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “f***ing crazy” and claimed “you’d be in prison if it weren’t for me,” the political establishment braced for a rupture. But according to veteran diplomatic correspondent Herb Keinon writing in The Jerusalem Post, such outbursts are neither new nor predictive of a lasting breakdown in US-Israel relations. The latest drama began Monday when Axios reported on an explosive phone call in which Trump allegedly berated Netanyahu over Israeli military actions in Lebanon, which the president said were threatening his delicate negotiations with Iran. The Prime Minister’s Office initially disputed the account, but Trump confirmed it days later on a New York Post podcast, answering simply: “I did.” Yet Keinon argues that three familiar patterns are being ignored. First, Trump periodically vents at Netanyahu in extraordinarily blunt language. Second, these episodes are routinely misinterpreted ...

In this episode of the Levant Files Deep Dive, we zoom in on the final, agonizing hours of the Iranian Shahdom. For twenty-five centuries, the Persian monarchy stood as an enduring symbol of imperial authority. Yet, in the winter of 1979, this ancient institution unraveled with astonishing speed, culminating in a dramatic countdown that reshaped the global geopolitical landscape. We trace the final 1,000 hours of the regime, a period defined by systemic paralysis, desperate political compromises, and the ultimate evaporation of state authority. The narrative takes us from the quiet, tense corridors of Niavaran Palace to the snow-slicked tarmac of Mehrabad Airport on January 16, 1979. Here, we witness the departing Shah, physically weakened and politically isolated, handing the keys of a struggling kingdom to Shapur Bakhtiar—a prime minister whose authority existed largely on paper. This episode deconstructs the mechanisms of this rapid collapse. We explore how a highly sophisticated mi...

A territorial dispute dating back more than half a century has surged back into the international spotlight, as the United Arab Emirates renews its long-standing claim to three strategically vital islands in the Persian Gulf currently controlled by Iran. Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs lie near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and a quarter of its liquefied natural gas pass. Iran's Imperial Navy seized the islands on 30 November 1971, just two days before the formal establishment of the UAE, after the withdrawal of British forces. Sharjah had administered Abu Musa and Ras al-Khaimah the two Tunbs; both emirates acceded to the new federation, leaving the UAE to inherit the dispute. Source: UAE Washington Embassy web page The competing claims remain irreconcilable. Iran insists the islands are an "inseparable" part of its territory, citing historical possession and a 1971 memorandum of u...

An opinion piece in Turkish daily Cumhuriyet warns that if the government-backed “appointed” leadership of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) is politically isolated and stripped of grassroots support, it risks becoming a powerless, token partner in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s orbit rather than a real opposition force. Citing past coalition practices, columnist Orhan Bursalı argues that the ruling bloc could easily absorb a much‑reduced CHP into the Cumhur Alliance, just as it previously accommodated the tiny Democratic Left Party (DSP). Bursalı contends that ongoing tensions between CHP’s elected leadership around Özgür Özel and the court‑installed “appointed” administration could, if unresolved, hollow out the latter into a “party without a base” that survives only through state backing. In that scenario, he writes, the appointed CHP would “cease to be a force” and lose its value as a usable political instrument for “Reis,” a common shorthand for Erdoğan. However, he notes that...

Donald Trump’s decision to attend the 7–8 July NATO Summit in Ankara is being read in Ankara as a strategic gain that both relieves pressure on President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and elevates Turkey’s role at a moment of intense regional conflict, according to a commentary by Murat Yetkin on Yetkin Report. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress on 3 June that President Donald Trump will personally take part in the NATO summit in Ankara, describing it as “perhaps the most important meeting in NATO’s history.” This confirmation comes after weeks of uncertainty over whether Trump would appear in person, a prospect that had fueled anxiety in several NATO capitals about the US commitment to the alliance. For Erdoğan, the announcement offers rare positive news on the foreign policy front just as he navigates a highly charged domestic scene, including a crisis inside the main opposition CHP sparked by a court ruling annulling internal party decisions. Ankara views Trump’s visit as a sign...