The Levant Files

Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Dr. Michael Oren has warned that the diplomatic stalemate between Washington and Tehran could give way to renewed military confrontation, arguing that the outcome of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections may prove decisive for both regional security and President Donald Trump's political future. Speaking to Israeli radio station 103FM in remarks reported by Maria, Oren expressed deep skepticism that ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran will produce a lasting agreement. "The negotiations are not progressing anywhere. The chances of reaching a permanent agreement are extremely slim," he said. According to Oren, Iran is closely monitoring the U.S. political calendar and could seek to exploit it by initiating military action that would drive up global oil prices and potentially damage Republican prospects in the November midterm elections. "The Iranians are not fools. They understand the political game. They...

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would secure 16 Knesset seats if he chose to break away from Likud and contest the next general election with an independent party, according to a new opinion poll published by the Israeli daily Maariv. Despite the personal showing, the survey suggests such a move would still leave him without a clear parliamentary majority to form a government. According to a poll published by Maariv and conducted by the Lazar Research Institute under Dr. Menachem Lazar in cooperation with Panel4All, Netanyahu's hypothetical new party would win 16 Knesset seats if he ran independently, while a Likud list without him would secure just seven seats. Combined, the two parties would receive 23 seats—three more than Likud currently polls on its own. Even with the improved combined total, the numbers indicate Netanyahu would still face significant obstacles in assembling the 61-seat majority required to govern in Israel's 120-member Knesset. The findings unde...

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Tehran has reached an agreement with Oman on a mechanism for managing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, while insisting that the United States will have no role in the strategic waterway. According to Al Mayadeen, Ghalibaf said Iran would proceed with implementing the navigation mechanism in the Strait of Hormuz and continue consultations with the Gulf states bordering the waterway. He added that the agreement with Muscat is based on the fifth clause of a previously signed memorandum of understanding. Ghalibaf also accused Israel of attempting to undermine the memorandum but said Iran's deterrence capabilities would prevent any renewed conflict. He reiterated that Tehran rejects the involvement of non-regional powers in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important maritime energy corridors. In related remarks cited by Al Mayadeen, Acting Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Majid Ebnolre...

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has ordered the military to prepare a unilateral strike plan against Iran, warning that Israel could return to war "tomorrow" if Tehran fires missiles at Israeli territory — even as new data on the current interceptor shortfall raises questions about Israel's capacity to defend itself without American support. Speaking to military and diplomatic correspondents on Monday, Katz said he had directed the Israel Defense Forces to prepare for what he called a "blue-and-white operation" in Iran — a term denoting an Israeli-led campaign not dependent on outside forces. "If Iran fires missiles at Israel, Israel will strike Iran with force," Katz said. "There is no equation we will accept in which Iran fires at Israel. This has also been made clear to the Americans. The IDF is just waiting for it and is on alert. There are targets." Katz identified two scenarios that could reignite the conflict: a decision by Presid...

Russian–Armenian billionaire and opposition politician Samvel Karapetyan has said that his efforts to renounce both his Russian and Cypriot citizenship cannot move forward while he remains under house arrest, placing Cyprus unexpectedly at the center of Armenia's post-election political debate. According to OC Media in a report published on 1 July, Karapetyan told reporters that he must personally visit the Russian and Cypriot embassies to submit the paperwork required to relinquish his foreign citizenships. However, he said this is impossible without court authorization because he has been under house arrest since December 2025 while facing several criminal charges, including alleged money laundering. The citizenship issue has become politically significant because Armenian law bars individuals holding foreign citizenship from serving as prime minister. Karapetyan had been presented by the opposition Strong Armenia Alliance as its candidate for the country's top political off...

A 72-year-old woman has died and four other people were hospitalized after unidentified attackers carried out three coordinated firebomb attacks on properties linked to Greece's governing New Democracy party in the northern city of Thessaloniki in the early hours of Wednesday, July 1. Vagia Nestora, mother of New Democracy parliamentary candidate Afroditi Nestora, suffered burns over approximately 80 percent of her body when the attack struck her daughter's apartment building around 4:35 a.m. She was rushed to Hippokrateio Hospital but later died of multiple organ failure. Afroditi Nestora, her father, and two other residents were also hospitalized after the blast set two cars and several motorcycles ablaze and sent thick smoke through the building's entrance. The Nestora residence, in the Analipsi–Charilaou area, was the third and most severe of three near-simultaneous strikes carried out within a 17-minute window. The first, at roughly 4:18 a.m. in Pylaia, targeted a pr...

Cadets and graduates of Israel's military officers' course have told Haaretz that parts of the IDF training system show a pronounced ideological lean toward religious nationalism, with some guest lectures crossing into overtly political territory that violates military regulations. According to the Haaretz report, one cadet said the majority of guest speakers invited to address trainees share a common ideological orientation rooted in religious Zionism — a movement blending Orthodox Judaism with Zionist nationalism that has grown increasingly influential in Israeli politics, particularly among advocates of West Bank settlement. Graduates added that educational seminars are routinely hosted at religious academies in the West Bank or at religious kibbutzim. The most striking example cited involved former IDF commander Brig. Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, who was invited to lecture cadets and used the opportunity to deliver pointed political commentary, including sharp criticism of f...

By Ben Caspit In Japan, he would have committed harakiri by noon on October 7. In Germany, he would have resigned the following day. In Britain, it might have taken him a little longer, because he would first have had to travel to the palace and inform the King. Only in Israel has Benjamin Netanyahu managed to achieve his version of "total victory." One thousand days after the worst disaster to befall the State of Israel since its founding, there is still no official commission of inquiry. There are, however, several conclusions that can already be drawn. Let us begin with the man who brought this catastrophe upon us—the man who led an entire nation, blinded by strategic failure and narcissistic arrogance, into the abyss while promising that it would all end in "total victory." Yes, he bears ultimate responsibility for the disaster. But it cannot be said that he failed to keep his promise. The "total victory" did indeed arrive—in full. Against all odds, th...

Heads of state and government from all 32 NATO countries, including U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who will attend as an invited guest, are set to gather at Ankara’s Beştepe Presidential Complex for the alliance’s summit on July 7-8, 2026. The meeting will be judged not by another declaration of unity, but by whether NATO can turn its commitments into the forces, industrial capacity and digital resilience needed to deter Russia. These questions were at the center of a June 23 press briefing held by the Center for European Policy Analysis, which NV English attended. The NATO summit in Ankara is unlikely to produce the kind of grand strategic reset that has defined some recent alliance gatherings. That is precisely the point. After several years of reorienting NATO from crisis management toward collective defense, allies have already made many of the political decisions that mattered most: a 5% defense investment benchmark, capability targets, re...