The Levant Files

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Özel Dosya: Levant’ın Savaşın Eşiğinde Geçirdiği 24 Saat

Bölge Uçurumun Kıyısından Nasıl Döndü? ABD büyükelçiliklerinin güvenlik uyarılarından Suudi Arabistan’ın devreye girmesine, İran’ın tehditlerinden Donald Trump’ın son anda verdiği mesaja kadar 1-2 Ağustos gecesi Levant ve Basra Körfezi’ni büyük bir bölgesel çatışmanın eşiğine getirdi. Ancak son anda diplomasiye dar da olsa bir alan açıldı. Tehlike henüz geçmiş değil. Washington’ın saldırıları durdurma kararı şartlara bağlı, Hürmüz Boğazı krizin merkezindeki yerini koruyor ve bölge başkentlerinde alarm durumu sürüyor. Bölge Alarm Durumuna Geçti 1 Ağustos Cumartesi günü ABD’nin Orta Doğu’daki büyükelçilikleri, alışılmışın dışında kapsamlı güvenlik uyarıları yayımladı. Açıklamalarda, Amerikalı vatandaşlar “öngörülemeyen bir tırmanış” ihtimaline karşı uyarılarak bölgeden ayrılmayı değerlendirmeleri istendi. Bahreyn, Irak, İsrail, Ürdün, Kuveyt, Lübnan, Umman, Katar, Suudi Arabistan ve Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri’ni kapsayan uyarılar, Levant’tan Basra Körfezi’ne uzanan geniş coğrafyada A...

The Triple Deadlock and the Hope*

by Petros Zarounas Much has been written about UN Secretary-General António Guterres's visit to Cyprus. Most of it reflects the partisan lens through which each side views events. Paradoxically, both the Christodoulides government and the opposition have described the visit as successful, agreeing that momentum will continue until the informal five-party conference is convened. Averof Neophytou's differing position stands out as notable. My own assessment differs, and it is as follows. Guterres's concluding statement makes clear that the two sides agree on none of it — not on substantive issues, not on procedural matters, and not on confidence-building measures (CBMs), which is why no new CBM was announced, nor was the implementation of any previous one. Beyond this, Guterres set no date for convening the informal conference, referring instead to preconditions that must first be met. He even clarified that the customary September trilateral meeting in New York will not take...

Special Dispatch: The Levant’s 24 Hours at the Edge of War. How a Region Stepped Back From the Brink

From the warning lights of US embassies to Saudi intervention, Iranian threats and a last-minute message from Donald Trump, the night of 1–2 August pushed the Levant and Gulf toward a major regional confrontation—then abruptly opened a narrow diplomatic exit. The danger has not passed: Washington’s strike pause is conditional, the Strait of Hormuz remains central to the dispute, and the region’s capitals remain on alert. The Region Braces On Saturday, 1 August, US embassies across the Middle East issued unusually broad security alerts, warning American citizens of possible “unforeseen escalation” and urging them to consider leaving the region. The notices covered Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—an arc stretching from the Levant to the Gulf and reflecting fears that the next US-Iran confrontation would not remain contained. The guidance was practical but stark: prepare for cancelled flights and sudden airspace restri...

Israel on High Alert as Trump Weighs New Strikes on Iran; Ankara Pushes Diplomacy

Israel has raised its military alert level amid mounting assessments that US President Donald Trump is nearing a decision to resume large-scale strikes on Iran, according to Israeli officials cited by The Jerusalem Post — even as Turkey signaled it is still working the diplomatic track with Tehran. Israel Braces, But Says it Hasn't Been Asked to Join Two Israeli sources told the *Post* that Israel has raised the alert and readiness amid assessments that Trump is close to deciding to resume military strikes against Iran, potentially on an even larger scale. Officials said "we are on high alert and awaiting the president's final decision." Israel's working assumption is that any major US strike on Iran, even one without direct Israeli participation, would likely draw Israel into the conflict. Still, an Israeli official told CBS that "Israel is not aware of a decision to fully resume military activity, and has not been asked to join any military action against I...

The Light That Appears Before You isn't Always Dawn. Sometimes it's The Headlights of an Oncoming Train*

María Ángela Holguín shuttled between Nicosia, Ankara, Athens, London, and Brussels for months. Everywhere she went, the doors didn't seem to be completely closed. No one was saying, "We don't want negotiations." On the contrary, everyone was saying, "If the right conditions are met," "If a suitable methodology is found," "If the other side also takes a step." In diplomatic language, these are often read as signs of hope. Perhaps that's where the problem began. What Holguín saw was indeed movement. But was this movement leading towards a solution, or was it serving to consolidate the positions of the parties? Looking at what has happened in recent months, the second possibility seems stronger. Turkey, while trying to open a new chapter in its relations with the European Union, kept the Cyprus issue as one of the important topics on the negotiating table. The Greek Cypriot-controlled Republic of Cyprus, on the other hand, tried to make...

Iran Says It Struck Tankers in Hormuz, Reasserts Closure of Strait Amid Standoff With U.S.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said Friday its naval forces struck and halted two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz after the vessels attempted to use a route that Tehran considers unauthorized while under U.S. military escort, according to Iranian state-linked media reports. The IRGC claimed the tankers had ignored repeated warnings before attempting to transit what it described as an unsafe route, and that four additional tankers reversed course after similar warnings. A separate IRGC statement said two tankers attempting to use a "southern route" under direction from U.S. aircraft turned back after one caught fire, though the cause was not independently confirmed. The claims could not be independently verified. Iranian state and state-aligned outlets have an interest in projecting military control over the strait, and their reporting on strikes and tanker movements has not been corroborated by independent maritime authorities, the U.S., or internatio...

Greece's Wildfire Crisis Deepens: Homes Destroyed in Porto Germeno as Turkey Reports Progress Against Its Own Fires

Greece's wildfire emergency intensified overnight and into Saturday, with the fire front in Boeotia's Porto Germeno merging into a single, uncontrollable blaze that has now destroyed more than 20 homes, while a second consecutive night of extreme winds kept aircraft grounded across multiple fronts. In Turkey, by contrast, the government reported significant progress, announcing that the country's two most stubborn fires — in Balıkesir's Gömeç district and Mersin's Aydıncık-Gülnar area — have been brought fully under control. Greece: Porto Germeno Front Merges Into One Uncontrollable Blaze. More Than 20 Homes Destroyed, Toll Still Rising By early Saturday afternoon, the picture in Porto Germeno had turned from serious to catastrophic. What had been three separate fire fronts — one inside the pine forest of Porto Germeno itself, one advancing toward Agia Paraskevi, and one moving toward Mytikas — merged into a single semicircular front that has encircled the pine fore...

Greece and Turkey Battle Multiplying Wildfires as Extreme Winds Fan Flames Across Both Countries

Greece is bracing for what officials are calling an "extreme risk" holiday weekend as fire crews fight through a second consecutive night of multiplying wildfires fanned by exceptional winds, while Turkey continues mop-up operations on dozens of blazes that broke out earlier in the week along its Aegean and Mediterranean coasts. Authorities in Athens have placed the country on its highest "Red Code" alert for Saturday, August 1, as fire danger reaches Category 5 — the maximum level — in Attica and Evia. Greece: A Country Under Siege on Multiple Fronts Greek firefighters spent the night of July 31 into August 1 locked in what officials described as a "titanic battle" against fire on several simultaneous fronts, with the situation most critical in the region of Boeotia (Voiotia), where two major fire fronts threatened the villages of Domvraina and Porto Germeno. Boeotia: Flames Reach Within Meters of Homes The most dramatic scenes played out around Porto Ger...

Spain Says Ceuta Was an Attack. It Will Not Say Who Attacked

More than 50,000 crossings, 34 bodies recovered, and two official explanations that cannot both be true. The instrument was Moroccan and the decision was Rabat's — but Washington had just spent three months making that decision cheaper to take. Spain deployed its armed forces to the North African enclave of Ceuta on Thursday and Friday after tens of thousands of people crossed from Morocco within twenty-four hours, in the largest and deadliest irregular entry ever recorded on Spanish territory. By the early afternoon of Friday 31 July, Spain's Interior Ministry estimated that more than 50,000 people had entered. Juan Jesús Vivas, president of the autonomous city, put the figure at around 60,000 and called the situation untenable. Interior estimated that roughly 25,000 had already returned voluntarily to Morocco. Thirty-four bodies had been recovered from the sea over the preceding twenty-four hours, up from nine on Thursday evening. Ceuta's resident population is approxim...