The Levant Files

Moroccan academic Dr. Tarek Lissaoui says the recent US-Iran confrontation ended not with an American triumph but with a negotiated pause that reveals how military superiority no longer guarantees political control, and he urges Arab states to draw a hard lesson about self-reliance. In his latest assessment, published by Rai al-Youm, Lissaoui opens with the old fable of the sticks: one breaks easily, a bundle held together resists even strong hands. That, he writes, is the law of states as much as families. From Threats to a Repost Lissaoui argues the turning point came within days. The United States, he notes, moved from rhetoric threatening to erase a deep-rooted Iranian civilization to a quieter moment on April 8, 2026, when President Donald Trump's official account on Truth Social, and the White House account on X, republished a statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. For Lissaoui, this was not a routine media step. It was an implicit acknowledgment that the Irani...

Russia is set to supply Tehran with new systems for producing suicide drones, while U.S. intelligence assessments suggest Iran's missile force survived the joint campaign far better than officials admit. This picture emerges from a report filed from Nazareth for London-based Rai al-Youm by veteran Israeli-Arab affairs writer Zuhair Andraus, who draws on a series of American and Israeli leaks published late Friday and Saturday. Thousands of missiles remain underground Andraus writes that "day by day the dust clears" from the 40-day U.S.-Israeli offensive, and the emerging intelligence picture contradicts public victory claims. Citing sources "familiar with the latest U.S. intelligence assessments" quoted by the Wall Street Journal overnight Friday into Saturday, Andraus reports that Iran still possesses an arsenal of thousands of ballistic missiles, and can bring launch platforms out of deep underground storage. The sources are split on damage: some say many aban...

Beirut was ready for a political solution, but Israel preferred another war on Hezbollah, as Iran now moves to 'save' Lebanon from Israel and Trump greases the already slippery slope of Israel-U.S. ties. This assessment is drawn from an analysis published Friday morning in Haaretz by veteran Middle East affairs commentator Zvi Bar'el. Lebanon becomes Iran's bargaining chip Bar'el argues that Lebanon could decide the fate of the fragile U.S.-Iran cease-fire now being negotiated. He points to a Thursday social media post by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian Parliament speaker leading Tehran's delegation to talks in Pakistan, who declared that "Lebanon and the entire Resistance Axis … form an inseparable part of the ceasefire" and warned that violations in Lebanon would bring "explicit costs and STRONG REACTIONS." Ghalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guards air force commander and ex-Tehran mayor, is described by Bar'el as trying to convert ...

Negotiators from Washington and Tehran are due in Islamabad on Saturday morning for Pakistan-mediated talks that both sides describe as an effort to lock in a fragile ceasefire, even as their core demands remain almost entirely opposed. The meeting follows two weeks of quiet between the U.S. and Iran that Pakistan helped broker, but it was nearly derailed this week by Israel's heavy strikes in Lebanon. After Tehran signaled it might pull out, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had ordered direct negotiations with Lebanon, a move an Israeli source described not as a ceasefire but as a cutback in attacks to allow diplomacy to proceed. Who Will be at the Table Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif invited both sides to the capital and will host. The U.S. delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance, with President Donald Trump's key aides Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran will be represented by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Min...

  Iran has told the United States that any negotiations to end the recent war are conditional on full adherence to a ceasefire on all fronts, especially in Lebanon, where Tehran says Israeli attacks are continuing in violation of the truce, Tasnim News Agency reported Thursday. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei, speaking to reporters in Tehran, said conducting talks is dependent on Washington meeting its commitments under a ceasefire understanding brokered by Pakistan. "The halting of the war in Lebanon is an integral part of the ceasefire understanding proposed by Pakistan, and as the prime minister of that country also explicitly announced, the United States is committed to stopping the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and any action or position contrary to this commitment would be tantamount to the United States not adhering to its commitment," Baqaei said, according to Tasnim News Agency. Baqaei strongly condemned what he called crimes committed by the ...

  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Thursday that Israel will open direct negotiations with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations, even as Israeli forces remain inside Lebanese territory and both sides exchanged fire. "The negotiations will focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon," the prime minister said in a statement released by his office. He instructed his cabinet to begin the talks "as soon as possible," citing the active warfront with Hezbollah and the upcoming Iran-US peace discussions in Islamabad. The announcement came minutes before Hezbollah launched a fresh barrage of rockets toward northern Israel, triggering sirens across the Galilee. There were no immediate reports of casualties from the rocket fire.  Who Will Negotiate and When Israeli sources told The Jerusalem Post and Haaretz that the talks are expected to begin next week in Washington. Israel will ...

  According to Iran's state-affiliated Press TV, a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire has been agreed after 40 days of conflict, with Washington reportedly accepting a comprehensive 10-point Iranian proposal.   Iran's military and political establishment is framing the ceasefire reached this week as a decisive strategic victory, with senior officials insisting the United States failed to achieve any of its objectives in the 40-day conflict that began on February 28. Brigadier General Mohammad Akrami-Nia, spokesperson for Iran's Army, stated on Thursday, according to Press TV, that "the enemy failed to achieve any of these goals, including macro, operational, and covert [objectives], and suffered a multilayered defeat in practice." He described the US and Israel as having entered the war aiming at "overthrowing the establishment of the Islamic Republic, making a regime change, and preparing the ground for the country's disintegration" — none of which, he arg...

The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran announced on the night of April 7–8 is unlikely to bring lasting calm to the Middle East, with both sides expected to use the pause to significantly reinforce their military positions, according to Russian newspaper Izvestia, citing multiple Russian military analysts. According to Izvestia, the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group is already en route to the Persian Gulf region, along with the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer carrying US Marines — a deployment the paper notes is proceeding regardless of the ceasefire. Once in position, the American naval air component in the region would exceed 200 carrier-based strike aircraft, Izvestia reports. The Russian outlet quotes military analyst Yuri Knutov as saying that Washington has so far failed to achieve its core strategic objectives: the Iranian government remains in place, the country has not been partitioned, and both its missile and nuclear programmes are still function...

A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced barely hours earlier, appeared on the verge of collapse on Wednesday evening as Israel launched its heaviest bombardment of Lebanon since the war began, Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran's parliament speaker declared further negotiations "unreasonable." The two-week truce, which followed 41 days of intense fighting between Iran and a US-Israeli coalition, had briefly raised hopes of a diplomatic off-ramp in one of the most devastating regional conflicts in decades. Instead, the first day of the ceasefire degenerated into a cascading series of violations, contradictory statements, and fresh bloodshed — raising the spectre of an immediate return to full-scale hostilities. The Ceasefire and Its Contradictions The agreement was announced on Tuesday evening Washington time by President Donald Trump, who described a 10-point Iranian proposal, conveyed through Pakistani Prime Minister Shehb...