The Levant Files

Tehran underscores full-spectrum military oversight of key global energy chokepoint amid sensitive negotiations   Iran has sent a pointed strategic message to the United States during ongoing negotiations by launching a major military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Nournews. The drill, titled “Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz,” is being described not merely as a routine maneuver, but as a calculated demonstration of Iran’s defensive capabilities and geopolitical leverage in one of the world’s most vital waterways. The exercise, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy under the supervision of Major General Mohammad Pakpour, focuses on assessing operational readiness, rehearsing counter-threat scenarios, and leveraging Iran’s strategic advantages in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman. Why Now — and Why Hormuz? The Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes, has long been at the heart of...

Iran appears to be standing at a historic crossroads. Renewed nationwide protests, deep economic hardship, and the advanced age of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have fueled speculation about whether the Islamic Republic can endure. Yet while debates rage over whether the regime will collapse—and what might replace it—the decisive factor is not the regime’s weakness but the opposition’s strength. As long as Iran’s opposition remains fragmented, mistrustful, and organizationally incoherent, the Islamic Republic is likely to survive, not because it enjoys widespread support, but because no unified alternative exists. In their mew article, Sanam Vakil, Director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program, and Alex Vatanka, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, argue that the Iranian opposition’s deep internal fractures are the primary obstacle to meaningful political change. They contend that only a broad, inclusive coalition built around a minimal shared plat...

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem on Monday urged Lebanon’s government to halt efforts to place all weapons under state control, as army commanders briefed the cabinet on the next phase of a national disarmament plan. In a televised address marking the assassinations of three senior Hezbollah figures by Israel, Qassem accused the government of making “continuous concessions” to Tel Aviv, despite ongoing Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory following a ceasefire agreed in November 2024. “If you want to surrender, amend the constitution, because the constitution’s essence is confrontation and defence for the sake of liberation,” Qassem said. He argued that the government’s approach had emboldened Israel and made it complicit in advancing “the goals of the Israeli enemy” by pursuing Hezbollah’s disarmament. Qassem, who assumed leadership of the Iran-backed group in October 2024 after the killing of longtime chief Hassan Nasrallah, maintained that the Lebanese state bears responsibility for re...

Iran is facing sustained internal and external pressure, including widespread protests, economic strain from sanctions, and intensified domestic repression, yet the Islamic Republic’s leadership appears to be holding firm. Security institutions remain cohesive, and the overall trajectory points to a regime that is weakened but not nearing collapse absent outside intervention. According to an assessment by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia continue to show loyalty and operational effectiveness, with no indications of significant defections inside Iran’s regular armed forces (the Artesh). The INSS assessment argues that historical precedent suggests mass protest movements alone are unlikely to trigger regime collapse, leaving Tehran under strain but broadly stable. The analysis also notes a harder U.S. line on the political and military implications of Iran’s behavior since the crisis be...

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu traveled to Washington between February 10 and 13 for his seventh visit in the past 13 months, amid signs that the close U.S.-Israel alliance is being tested by growing personal and policy friction between Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump, particularly over Iran and the future of Gaza. Writing for Turkish think-tank Orsam, Özgür Dikmen, stresses that the visit is described as less a routine diplomatic engagement than an effort by both leaders to “mark” and constrain each other as negotiations with Iran and U.S.-backed plans for Gaza move forward. One of the most discussed images from the trip was Netanyahu’s understated arrival at the White House, where he entered via a side door without a ceremonial welcome or a large press presence. The analysis argues that the absence of a joint press statement after a closed, roughly three-hour meeting pointed to substantive differences—especially on Iran—rather than a relaxed bypass...

Senior Israeli defense officials are warning that the West Bank could face heightened volatility during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, despite the Israel-Hamas cease-fire, amid signs that worsening economic conditions and political decisions could push Palestinians toward broader protests and clashes with Israeli forces. The warnings were delivered in closed-door discussions and reported by Haaretz, citing assessments by senior military officials who say Palestinians in the West Bank—who have so far not mobilized for mass unrest—may now be more likely to do so as pressures mount. Israeli security officials have described Ramadan, which begins later this week, as a major “stress test.” While the past two Ramadan periods took place against the backdrop of the Gaza war, the military now assesses that the situation is more fragile four months after the cease-fire agreement, due to a combination of security incidents, government policies perceived as weakening the Palestinian Au...

Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias, chief editor of The Levant Files, sat down with Turkish academician Prof. Dr. Ozan Örmeci of the Uluslararası Politika Akademisi (UPA) to dissect three interlinked flashpoints shaping the Eastern Mediterranean: the Erdoğan-Mitsotakis summit, the frozen Cyprus negotiations, and ominous military activity on British bases pointing toward a possible confrontation with Iran. Stelgias described Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's visit to Ankara as a "very positive step" that unfolded largely as expected. He noted that both leaders deliberately avoided the most incendiary rhetoric that had defined the relationship in recent years. President Erdoğan refrained from pressing the two-state solution for Cyprus, while Mitsotakis avoided the inflammatory language — such as calling Cyprus "a dagger plunged into the side of Hellenism" — that he had previously used before the U.S. Congress and that his former Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias had rout...

UN envoy says leaders should meet directly without intermediaries, calls for "different model of interaction" ahead of potential formal talks restart in July The United Nations has effectively pressed pause on formal Cyprus reunification efforts, with the Personal Envoy of UN Secretary-General, Maria Angela Holguin, signalling that conditions are not yet ripe for substantive negotiations to resume. In an opinion editorial disseminated by the UN in Cyprus, Holguin outlined a cautious roadmap, urging the island's leaders to continue meeting independently and make small joint decisions while exploring viable pathways to restart formal negotiations "in the best possible way, beginning in July." Reflecting on her last joint meeting with Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides and Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhurman, Holguin highlighted what she described as a significant development: "The idea emerged that the two sides could speak directly to one another witho...

While diplomats whisper in Omani palaces beneath slow-turning ceiling fans, Iranian security forces open fire on their own streets. The Gulf sits under the guns of a massive U.S. naval armada, yet in Muscat’s shaded corridors, envoys exchange indirect messages about a nuclear program Tehran vows never to dismantle. This is the paradox of modern Iran: a regime fighting for survival against domestic uprising and foreign pressure simultaneously, threatening to sever the global economy’s jugular at Hormuz rather than surrender its ballistic missiles or enrichment centrifuges. The Levant Files launches this urgent podcast series at the precipice of history. We trace how mass civilian casualties sparked the most dangerous internal crisis since 1979, even as the Trump administration steams toward potential conflict. We dissect the Oman talks—the fragile conduit where Washington and Tehran speak through intermediaries while refusing to budge on existential red lines, even as military strikes l...