The Levant Files

Iran's ongoing missile and drone strikes against Kurdish armed organizations based in northern Iraq are not an improvised wartime reaction but rather the battlefield expression of a long-accumulating strategic transformation, researcher Çağatay Balcı argued in an analysis published May 2026 by the Iran Research Center (IRAM), a Turkey-based think tank specializing in Iranian affairs. For decades, Tehran's approach to secessionist Kurdish groups rested on three interconnected methods: decapitation, opportunistic strikes, and punitive retaliation. The most emblematic decapitation operations were the assassinations of Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) leaders Abdurrahman Ghassemlou in Vienna in 1989 and Sadegh Sharafkandi in Berlin in 1992 — operations designed not only to physically eliminate leadership but to seed distrust and organizational disintegration within the groups. The punitive dimension was equally systematic: every armed action inside Iran's borders was f...

As U.S.-Iranian ceasefire negotiations inch forward in the wake of last year's 12-day war, President Donald Trump is pressing for what he calls a nuclear agreement "FAR BETTER than the JCPOA" — but two former senior U.S. national security officials warn that reaching such a deal will be far harder than the president publicly acknowledges, writing in Foreign Affairs on May 12, 2026, that Iran now holds significantly more nuclear leverage than it did in 2015. Even though last June's joint U.S.-Israeli strikes devastated Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, killing nuclear scientists and destroying key infrastructure, the war could not erase the technical knowledge Iran accumulated over the preceding seven years. By June 2025, Iran's most advanced centrifuges were roughly six times more efficient than those operating under the original 2015 nuclear accord, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). More alarmingly, Iran had tripled its centrifu...

Beneath the surface of relentless calls for national unity, a fierce power struggle is tearing through Iran's political establishment in the approximately 70 days since the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to an in-depth analysis published by IranWire. The fate of Khamenei's son and presumed successor, Mojtaba, remains uncertain, adding urgency to a factional contest that no amount of official rhetoric has been able to conceal. Since the Islamic Republic's 12-day war with Israel and the subsequent fragile 40-day ceasefire, Iranian officials have hammered the theme of "unity" in speeches, on state media, and across social platforms. Supporters of the system rallied on May 9 in Tehran's Revolution Square, chanting, "Unified command, jihadi spirit — the secret of our martyrdom in the economic war." Yet the January protests and the crackdown that followed them demonstrated plainly that whatever unity exists is confined to a narrow stratum ...

A dispute over the removal of Kurdish-language signage from the courthouse in Hasakah has become a symbol of wider tensions in efforts to integrate institutions in northeast Syria with those of Syria’s interim government, according to remarks by Syrian Democratic Forces Commander Mazloum Abdi and reports carried by Kurdish media. The issue has drawn public protests in Hasakah, where residents demanded the restoration of Kurdish on official signs and called for a resolution to the stalled judicial file across the province. According to Hawar News Agency (ANHA) and Numedya24, Abdi said the disagreement emerged about two weeks ago and exposed the lack of a clear mechanism for integrating judges working under the Autonomous Administration into the new government system while preserving their rights and the region’s particular character. He said the reaction of judicial bodies in the area was legitimate because they refused to be ignored, arguing that exclusion itself ran against the logic ...

Iran could enrich uranium to 90% purity if it comes under attack again, a senior Iranian lawmaker said on Tuesday, underscoring how quickly the nuclear issue could return to the center of a renewed confrontation with the United States and Israel. Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesperson for the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, stated that such a step could be considered in parliament if hostilities resume. His remarks came as President Donald Trump reiterated that one of the central aims of launching the war against Iran was to ensure Tehran does not develop a nuclear weapon. Iran, which maintains that its nuclear program is peaceful, is reportedly holding more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. This is described as a short technical step from the 90% level associated with weapons‑grade material. In a post on X, Rezaei said 90% enrichment could become one of Iran’s options in the event of another attack. The warning reflects the broader strategic di...

More than 110 Nobel laureates have called for the immediate and unconditional release of imprisoned Iranian human rights activist and 2023 Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, as concern grows over her worsening health after her transfer to a Tehran hospital. Mohammadi was moved from Zanjan to Pars Hospital in Tehran after authorities suspended enforcement of her sentence to allow treatment outside prison, according to earlier reports citing her lawyer and the Narges Foundation. Her family and supporters say the transfer is only a temporary measure and warn that she could be sent back to prison once her condition stabilizes. According to the Guardian, in a statement issued on Tuesday, 112 Nobel laureates urged Iranian authorities and the international community to act quickly to secure her freedom and guarantee continued access to specialized medical care. The appeal came after reports that Mohammadi had suffered severe weight loss, unstable blood pressure and serious cardiac sym...

Iran has executed political prisoner Erfan Shokourzadeh after accusing him of cooperating with U.S. intelligence and Israel’s Mossad, according to Mizan, the judiciary’s news agency, as reported by Iran International. The execution took place on May 11. Mizan stated that the case involved alleged collaboration with “the U.S. intelligence service and the spy service of Mossad.” Shokourzadeh was reportedly recruited by a prominent scientific organization active in the satellite field due to his professional expertise, though the institution was not named. The judiciary-affiliated outlet alleged that he had transferred classified information to “enemy services,” but did not provide documentary evidence. Iran International reported that Shokourzadeh was arrested in February 2025 by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ intelligence organization on charges of espionage and cooperation with hostile countries. He was held in solitary confinement for nine months. In the days leading up to the...

Ankara capitalises on Gulf insecurity and US supply backlogs to cement its role as a major regional defence partner As conflict reshapes the security calculus of the Middle East, Turkey is quietly positioning itself as the region's go-to arms supplier — transforming instability into a strategic and commercial windfall. Writing from Ankara for Middle East Eye, correspondent Ragip Soylu reports that Gulf and Arab states are increasingly turning to Turkish defence manufacturers as Washington's delivery pipelines for Patriot and THAAD systems remain backed up for years. The catalyst is stark: since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran erupted in late February, Gulf states — Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia — have found themselves under mounting pressure. Iranian long-range drones have successfully destroyed several radar installations across the region, exposing critical gaps in their air defence architecture that existing systems were not designed to fill. Ankara moved swiftly to e...

A proposal for Iran to charge technology companies for undersea cables crossing its waters in the Persian Gulf appears to be far less financially significant than a potential transit toll on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Notes on Geopolitics on Substack . The publication noted that a maritime shipping toll imposed by Iran, possibly in coordination with Oman, could generate tens of billions of dollars annually. In contrast, a levy on underwater cables would likely bring in only a few hundred million dollars per year. This disparity suggests the cable proposal currently functions more as a political signal than as a practical revenue measure.  The report also warned that any interference with submarine cable infrastructure could raise legal concerns under Article 79(2) of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which restricts coastal states from obstructing the laying or maintenance of such cables. Notes on Geopolitics emphasized that Tehran should avoid ...