The Levant Files

The Institute of Studies for Politics and Democracy (ISPD) has published a new policy analysis by Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias, Chief Editor of The Levant Files and postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Nicosia, examining the political upheaval that has gripped the Turkish Cypriot community since early April 2026. The study, offers a detailed account of a dual institutional crisis unfolding in the internationally unrecognized TRNC. At its centre is the decision by the UBP–DP–YDP coalition, led by "prime minister" Ünal Üstel, to issue a Decree with the Force of "Law" suspending the semi-annual cost-of-living allowance for public servants and pensioners — a move made after the relevant bill was rejected by the assembly. The executive maneuver provoked an immediate and forceful public response: an indefinite general strike, large-scale protests in occupied Nicosia, the occupation of the new parliament building, violent confrontations with police, and a subsequent ...

The Trump administration is pressing allied governments to join a new international coalition aimed at restoring commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, even as the waterway remains largely paralyzed by competing blockades and ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities. According to an internal State Department cable reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the proposed initiative — dubbed the "Maritime Freedom Construct" (MFC) — would see partner nations share intelligence, coordinate diplomatic pressure, and enforce sanctions against Iranian interference with maritime traffic. The cable was sent to U.S. embassies on Tuesday, instructing American diplomats to solicit foreign government participation. The move comes weeks after President Donald Trump declared the strait "COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS," a claim quickly undermined by continued disruption to vessel traffic. Iran has been laying mines and targeting tankers that attempt to transit the chokepoint withou...

President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing on new plans for potential military action against Iran on Thursday from CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper, according to a report by Axios citing two sources with knowledge of the matter. Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine is also expected to attend the briefing. According to the Axios, the briefing signals that Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations — either to break the logjam in nuclear negotiations or to deliver a final blow before ending the war, Axios reported. Three Military Options on the Table According to Axios, which cited three sources with knowledge, CENTCOM has prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran — likely targeting infrastructure — in hopes of forcing Tehran back to the negotiating table with greater flexibility on the nuclear issue. A second plan presented to Trump focuses on taking control of part of the Strait of Hormuz in order to reopen it to...

Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias Intelligence reaching Cyprus in recent days indicates that the United Nations Secretary-General, whose term expires in the coming months, is preparing a final push on the Cyprus issue. Following António Guterres’s latest contact with Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, reports are mounting that the UN is committed to this course and is actively weighing a range of options. According to sources in Nicosia, the UN’s primary objective remains to bring the parties back to the table. While the deep divisions between the two sides persist, Guterres aims—before his tenure draws to a close—to convey to the international community that progress has been achieved, at least in an informal format; that headway has been made on confidence-building measures; and that encouraging signals pointing toward a settlement have started to emerge. The British Formula: A Loose (Con)Federation Should Guterres succeed in this effort, a set of ideas that British sources have been advan...

Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias Kıbrıs'ın güneyine son günlerde ulaşan bilgiler, görev süresi önümüzdeki aylarda sona erecek olan Birleşmiş Milletler (BM) Genel Sekreteri'nin Kıbrıs meselesinde son bir hamleye hazırlandığını gösteriyor. Antonio Guterres'in Kıbrıs Cumhurbaşkanı Nikos Christodoulides ile gerçekleştirdiği son temasın ardından, BM'nin bu yönde kararlı olduğuna ve çeşitli seçenekleri masaya yatırdığına ilişkin haberler giderek yoğunlaşıyor. Lefkoşa'dan edinilen bilgilere göre BM'nin öncelikli hedefi, tarafları yeniden bir masa etrafında toplamak. Taraflar arasındaki derin görüş ayrılıkları gündemdeki yerini korumakla birlikte, Guterres en azından gayriresmî bir formatta Kıbrıs'ta ilerleme sağlandığı, güven artırıcı önlemler konusunda mesafe kat edildiği, hatta çözüm yönünde olumlu sinyaller alındığı mesajını, BM'deki görev süresinin bitmesine kısa bir süre kala dünya kamuoyuyla paylaşmak niyetinde. Birleşik Krallık Formülü: Gevşek (Kon)Federasyon Guter...

A new strategic report from the Islamic Parliament Research Center proposes four mechanisms to convert Iran's wartime control of the Strait of Hormuz into permanent diplomatic, military, and economic leverage. In a freshly published strategic report , the Islamic Parliament Research Center has identified Iran's exclusive management of the Strait of Hormuz as the single most powerful card it holds in ongoing negotiations with the United States and has laid out four interlocking mechanisms designed to lock that advantage in for the long term. The report, titled "Proposed Strategies for Exercising Sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz," was authored by strategist Dr. Ali Abdollahi Neysiani and international-law scholar Dr. Mohammad Saleh Taskhiri under the supervision of Hojjat al-Islam Dr. Ali Nahavandi. Citing what the authors describe as Washington's "habit of breaking commitments," it argues that of the ten conditions Iran has presented to the United St...

Syria's permanent envoy to the United Nations on Tuesday urged the governments of Iraq and Lebanon to deploy official state forces along their borders with Syria and to prevent the spread of militia groups in those areas, Rudaw reported, citing remarks delivered to a UN Security Council meeting on the Middle East. Ibrahim Olabi, addressing the council, said Damascus welcomed the extension of the US–Iran ceasefire to Lebanon and reiterated longstanding Syrian support for "efforts aimed at preserving Lebanon's unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, as well as protecting its security and the safety of its people," according to Rudaw. He went further by calling on Beirut and Baghdad to push armed groups back from the frontier. "We also support limiting weapons to the hands of the state in Iraq and call on both brotherly countries, Iraq and Lebanon, to deploy forces in the border areas with Syria and prevent militias from spreading there," Olabi said, as ...

Iraq has emerged from nearly half a year of political paralysis after President Nizar Amedi named Ali al-Zaidi, a 40-year-old businessman with no prior government experience, as the country's prime minister-designate. The appointment, announced on Monday, came just hours after the Coordination Framework — the Shia-led coalition that holds the largest bloc in parliament — settled on al-Zaidi as a compromise candidate, averting a constitutional crisis that had been building since the November 2025 elections. Background: A Deadlock Driven by Foreign and Domestic Pressure The road to al-Zaidi's nomination was anything but straightforward. Following the parliamentary elections of November 11, 2025, the Coordination Framework declared itself the largest bloc and, under Iraq's confessional power-sharing system, claimed the right to nominate the next prime minister. Under that system — known as the Muhasasa arrangement and in place since the 2003 US-led invasion — the presidency is...

The United Arab Emirates' decision to withdraw from OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance, effective May 1, has sent tremors through global energy diplomacy, threatening to unravel a producer bloc that has steered crude markets for more than six decades. Announced Tuesday by Abu Dhabi's state news agency WAM, the move strips the cartel of its third-largest producer at a moment when the organization is already strained by a nine-week war involving Iran and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Although UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei framed the departure as a "policy decision" tied to long-term national strategy, the international fallout is likely to be considerable. Energy analysts warn that losing a founding-era member with capacity above 4 million barrels per day — and ambitions, through ADNOC, to reach 5 million by 2027 — fundamentally weakens OPEC's ability to present a unified front on production policy. Rystad Energy described the withdrawal as a ...