The Levant Files

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Kuwait Caught in the Crossfire: A Small State’s Precarious Balancing Act in the US-Israel–Iran War

As the US-Israel war on Iran approaches its 100th day, few states illustrate the conflict’s regional spillover more sharply than Kuwait. Geographically wedged between Iraq and Saudi Arabia and hosting some of the largest concentrations of US military personnel in the Gulf, the small emirate has become an unwilling frontline in a war it neither sought nor declared. Since Iran launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf on February 28, following the US-Israeli opening salvo that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Kuwait has absorbed repeated barrages. Iranian drones struck Kuwait International Airport and the Ali Al Salem Air Base, which houses Italian forces, while another drone hit the US garrison at Camp Buehring in the country’s northeast. A separate missile attack targeted a makeshift operations center near the civilian port of Shuaiba, killing six US soldiers and wounding dozens. The human toll for Kuwait itself has been significant. In the strikes against the country, four sol...

Iraq’s Precarious Crossroads: A New Government, a Crippled Economy, and a War on Its Doorstep

Iraq enters mid-2026 in one of its most vulnerable positions since the defeat of the Islamic State, caught between a fragile new government, a collapsing revenue base, and a regional war that has turned its territory into a battleground. On 14 May, six months after the November 2025 elections, parliament approved a still-incomplete government led by Ali al-Zaidi, a young billionaire businessman with no political or government experience who emerged as an unconventional compromise candidate after months of deadlock within Iraq’s Shiite ruling coalition, the Coordination Framework. His appointment, the International Crisis Group argues, reflects less a coherent strategy than the deepening fragmentation of Iraq’s political class. Zaidi inherits a state under siege. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran that began on 28 February has turned Iraq into a battleground where the government can neither protect its sovereignty nor enforce the state’s monopoly on the use of force. All three of the ma...

U.S. and Iran Trade Fire After Apache Downing as Gulf Edges Back Toward War

The fragile truce holding the 2026 Iran war in check buckled again overnight as the United States and Iran exchanged direct fire following the downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting fears of a return to full-scale conflict just as both sides claimed to be nearing a peace deal. The crisis began when an AH-64 Apache went down Monday evening off the coast of Oman while patrolling regional waters. Both pilots were rescued unharmed in what officials described as the first sea-drone rescue ever carried out by the U.S. military. President Donald Trump subsequently declared that the Iranians had shot down the helicopter while it patrolled over the Strait of Hormuz , vowing that Washington “must” respond. Senators briefed by CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper were left with the impression that an Iranian drone struck the Apache, with at least one lawmaker calling it intentional. Tehran declined to claim the attack. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warne...

From Casablanca to Istanbul: A Record Ten Teams from the Greater Levant Storm the 2026 World Cup

Never before has the Arab world, North Africa, and the wider region sent so many flags to football's biggest stage As the twenty-third FIFA World Cup prepares to kick off across the United States, Mexico and Canada from June 11 to July 19, one storyline towers above the rest for fans from Rabat to Tehran: the greater region stretching from Morocco and Egypt across the Levant to Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Iran has never been so powerfully represented. A record ten national teams from this vast cultural and geographic belt have booked their places at the first 48-team finals, a tally without precedent in the tournament's 96-year history. The expansion to 48 teams has opened the door, but it is the depth of talent and decades of institutional investment that have walked through it. From North Africa's perennial heavyweights to first-time debutants, here are the ten teams carrying the hopes of millions. North Africa's Established Powers Morocco arrive as the region's sta...

Israel Orders Evacuation of Tyre, Putting One of the World's Oldest Cities in the Line of Fire

Ancient Phoenician port and UNESCO World Heritage Site faces fresh bombardment as ceasefire frays Israel's military issued an evacuation order on Tuesday for the southern Lebanese city of Tyre, warning residents to flee north of the Zahrani River ahead of possible strikes. For the first time, the order extended to the city's Christian Quarter, which earlier warnings had spared. Military spokesperson Avichay Adraee claimed Hezbollah was operating in the quarter and cautioned that any building used by the group could be targeted. The order arrives as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, renewed only last week, frays badly. A strike on Tyre on Monday killed five people and wounded eight, four of the dead Red Cross paramedics, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry. The bombardment has also battered the city's celebrated antiquities: Ali Badawi, the culture ministry's regional director for archaeological sites in south Lebanon, said recent shelling had ...

Kosovo's Snap Election Again Fails to Break Political Deadlock

Third vote in 18 months leaves young Balkan nation without a clear government Kosovo's latest snap election has failed to deliver the political breakthrough the country desperately needs, deepening a crisis that observers warn is endangering the stability of Europe's youngest nation. In the June 7 vote — the third parliamentary election in just 18 months — Prime Minister Albin Kurti's centre-left Vetevendosje party won the most votes but again fell short of a governing majority. Near-complete results put the party at roughly 43 percent, down sharply from the 51 percent it secured in December, pointing to difficult coalition talks ahead. The opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) took about 21 and 17 percent respectively. The repeated trips to the polls stem from a paralysing institutional impasse. A deeply divided parliament failed to elect a new president in April, worsening a crisis triggered by inconclusive elections in February...

Pashinyan's Pro-Western Party Wins Armenian Election, Setting Course Away From Russia

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has claimed a decisive victory in Armenia's parliamentary election, a result that strengthens his government's pivot toward the West and away from its traditional alliance with Russia. According to Armenia's Central Election Commission, Pashinyan's Civil Contract party took 49.81 percent of the vote, far ahead of the pro-Russian Strong Armenia alliance, which finished a distant second at 23.29 percent. With roughly 94 percent of ballots counted, the result would hand Civil Contract a comfortable majority of about 64 of the 105 seats in the National Assembly. Turnout in the country of three million was nearly 59 percent. Two other opposition forces cleared the threshold to enter parliament: former President Robert Kocharyan's Armenia Alliance, with about 9.9 percent, and the Prosperous Armenia party, at roughly 4 percent. Pashinyan called the outcome a "historic victory that will ensure Armenia's eternity and development."...

Washington Sees Deal 'Within Weeks' as Tehran Holds Firm on Conditions

Trump predicts 'total victory' over Iran, but a gap between Washington's optimism and Tehran's demands leaves the outcome uncertain. President Donald Trump declared this week that the United States is on the verge of a sweeping diplomatic win over Iran, telling supporters during a tele-rally for Senator Lindsey Graham that Washington would soon declare "total victory." "You're really gonna win it over the next two weeks when we declare total victory," Trump said. "It'll happen very soon, and oil prices will come tumbling down." Trump claimed Iranian negotiators are prepared to concede on every American demand, including the central question of nuclear weapons. "They're willing to give us everything, they're willing to give us no nuclear weapon," he said, adding that an agreement "will not allow for nuclear weapons in any way, shape, or form." Speaking later before boarding Air Force One, he suggested a de...

Cracks Emerge in US-Israel Alliance as Netanyahu Defies Trump on Iran Response

According to The Jerusalem Post analysis by Herb Keinon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faced what the writer described as his “Levi Eshkol moment” this week, choosing to defy US President Donald Trump’s call for restraint after Iran fired 11 ballistic missiles at Israel. The episode has exposed visible cracks in the US-Israel alliance, not necessarily because the relationship is collapsing, but because Netanyahu’s decision showed that Israel is again prepared to act independently when it believes its strategic deterrence is at stake. Trump reportedly urged Netanyahu on Sunday not to retaliate after Iran’s missile attack. The message was public enough for Israel’s enemies, allies, and regional partners to hear clearly: Washington wanted Israel to hold back. Netanyahu chose otherwise. His decision echoed earlier moments in Israeli history when prime ministers rejected American pressure. In 1967, Levi Eshkol ignored President Lyndon Johnson’s warning not to launch a preemptive strike ...