The Levant Files

Ankara frames the Aegean standoff as a foreign-orchestrated containment effort, names Israel as the driving force, and issues Athens its starkest ultimatum since the 2020 EastMed crisis Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's recent declaration that Turkey will prevent other powers from "encircling" his country was not, according to sources close to the Turkish government who spoke to The Levant Files, a piece of campaign-season rhetoric. It was, they insist, a strategic warning — and its first and primary addressee was Athens. Turkish–Greek relations, these sources warn, are now officially at a "boiling point." Echoes of 2020 Some sources go further, drawing a direct and sobering parallel between today's climate and the summer of 2020, when Ankara and Athens came within one step of an open military clash in the Eastern Mediterranean. The comparison is deliberate. In Turkish strategic discourse, 2020 remains the benchmark for how quickly maritime friction c...

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed personally warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Hamas was planning a major operation against Israel less than two weeks before the October 7, 2023 massacre — but Netanyahu never shared the warning with Israel's top security officials, according to an extensive investigation published by Haaretz . The revelations come from reporting by Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval, conducted for their new book, "Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment" (Kinneret Zmora Publishing). The research drew on dozens of sources in Israel and abroad, including recordings, internal documents, and correspondence. According to the Haaretz report, bin Zayed called Netanyahu from the Presidential Palace in Abu Dhabi for a 45-minute conversation, warning that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was preparing a major operation that could destabilize the region and undermine the Abraham Accords. Netanyahu reportedly responded calmly, telling the Emirati ruler he believ...

Yemen's Houthi movement (Ansarallah) has vowed to retaliate against Saudi Arabia after a wave of airstrikes hit several provinces, including a deadly bombardment of a prison, as heavy fighting between the Iran-backed group and the internationally recognized government entered its fifth day near the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Yahya Saree, spokesman for the Houthi-run armed forces, said Monday that "the continuous aggression of the Saudi enemy against Yemen will not go unanswered," warning that Riyadh "must bear the consequences of its crimes against the Yemeni people." He accused Saudi Arabia of intensifying airstrikes, conducting reconnaissance flights and arming what he called its "mercenaries," pointing to a "massacre" in Al-Jawf province. According to the Houthi-affiliated Saba news agency, a Saudi airstrike struck a prison in Al-Hazm, the capital of Al-Jawf, killing seven people — including a child visiting the facility — and woundin...

  Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf issued a direct public warning on Monday that American oil and gas companies operating across the Persian Gulf will be targeted if the United States strikes Iranian energy assets again, marking a significant expansion of Tehran's declared retaliation doctrine from military and shipping targets to commercial energy infrastructure across the wider region. The Statement Qalibaf, who also serves as Iran's top negotiator in the stalled talks with Washington, posted the warning on X shortly after 12:00 p.m. Iran time. The state news agency IRNA published the statement first, with Tasnim and Mehr carrying identical wording within the same window. Reuters picked up the warning independently later on Monday, and it was subsequently reported by Al Jazeera, ABC News, RTÉ, the Christian Science Monitor and others. "It's simple: the oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil a...

  With direct hostilities between Washington and Tehran expanding since clashes broke out in late February, the Islamic Republic is executing a fundamental overhaul of its doctrine in the Strait of Hormuz. Rather than attempting a scorched-earth closure that would alienate Persian Gulf neighbors and invite crushing retaliation, Tehran is constructing an institutional chokehold. According to reports and strategic commentary published by Nournews —the media outlet affiliated with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC)—Iranian leadership has moved to counter the American naval embargo through an explicit doctrine of "blockade for blockade" ( mohasereh dar barabar-e mohasereh ), shifting the frontline from naval skirmishes to the administrative and financial nervous system of global shipping. Replacing Closure with a Regulatory Regime At the center of this pivot is Tehran's effort to establish formal legal and operational sovereignty over transit corridors through th...

  By Ulf Poschardt   Why The Levant Files is Republishing This Piece Today The Levant Files has chosen to republish this article today because its themes resonate strongly with current events, arriving simultaneously with the far-right Alternative for Germany's (AfD) historic electoral victory, specifically highlighting the political earthquake in the state of Saxony-Anhalt . It provides a distinct, highly critical perspective on the reaction of established political structures to this major shift in the political landscape that affects not only Germany itself but whole Europe and consequently the Levant. The Suicide of the Political Elites The political culture of the Berlin Republic is nearing its end. The disastrous election outcome for the country's elites reveals how far they have decoupled themselves from reality. The political culture of the Berlin Republic is nearing its end. The disastrous election outcome for the cultural, political, and media elites revealed a quiet...

  The war of words between Greek and Turkish media has intensified over the past two weeks, with outlets on both sides of the Aegean amplifying political rhetoric into near-daily exchanges of accusation and counter-accusation. The latest flashpoint came after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan renewed calls for Greece to halt what Ankara calls the "illegal militarisation" of Aegean islands, warning Turkey would "do whatever is necessary" if Athens did not change course, as GreekReporter.com reported on September 2. A Turkish-language outlet, Manisa Manşet Gazetesi , quoted Erdoğan the same day warning that "those who mistake our composed approach for weakness are making a grave mistake." Turkish media then seized on the remarks: according to Greek City Times , one Turkish report cast Erdoğan's message as a warning to Greece as "Israel's pawn," while other outlets branded Athens a "bad neighbor" pursuing illegal military b...

As Turkey navigates a fragile new phase in its approach to the Kurdish issue, the delay in the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) fully laying down its arms is creating mounting political risks for all major actors involved. According to a recent analysis by Alpaslan Özerdem published in Yetkin Report , the situation is rapidly evolving beyond technical hurdles, threatening to erode the foundation of the current peace efforts. Özerdem argues that peace processes are won or lost in the daily flow of politics, not just at negotiation tables. He points to the historical precedent of the 2009 Habur border crossing, where the return of 34 PKK members was perceived by some segments of society as a victory celebration for the group, severely damaging the government's "democratic opening" at the time. Today, a similar psychological threshold is approaching as the delay in disarmament coincides with increasingly visible, politically charged condolence ceremonies for PKK members. I...

  As autumn rapidly approaches, Iran is confronting a renewed public health challenge. According to a recent report published by KhabarOnline , the country is currently witnessing an emerging wave of co-circulating COVID-19 and influenza, sparking fresh concerns among health officials and medical professionals. Dr. Iraj Khosronia, the Head of the Iranian Society of Internal Medicine Specialists, indicated in an interview with KhabarOnline that while the country is not presently experiencing a catastrophic surge, there has been a distinct and noticeable increase in COVID-19 cases over the past 30 days. The simultaneous circulation of both viruses has made it exceedingly difficult for patients to distinguish between the two illnesses based solely on initial symptoms, which commonly include fever, severe body aches, and persistent coughing. Recent COVID-19 cases have even begun to present with gastrointestinal symptoms, adding to the diagnostic complexity. A significant driver of thi...

  What happened on Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt may appear, at first sight, far removed from the Levant. It is not. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to a commanding victory in the eastern German state, according to the first election-night projections, delivering one of the most dramatic blows yet to Germany’s post-war political establishment. For The Levant Files, the significance goes well beyond German domestic politics: Germany sits at the centre of European policy on migration, Syria, Turkey, Israel, defence and the Eastern Mediterranean. A political earthquake in Germany will eventually send tremors south and east. ARD projects the AfD at 44.5 percent, more than double its 20.8 percent result in 2021. The Christian Democratic Union has fallen to around 18.5 percent, from 37.1 percent five years ago. This is not a normal protest vote. It is an electoral rupture. For years, Germany’s mainstream parties have defended a political consensus built around European i...