The Levant Files

In a detailed profile published on May 11, journalist Benjamin Roger of Le Monde traces the extraordinary arc of the 72-year-old Tuareg commander who has become the most dangerous man in the Sahel. Iyad Ag Ghali, leader of Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the Sahel branch of al-Qaida, is widely considered the architect of the sweeping jihadist offensive that has brought Mali's military junta to the brink of collapse. The offensive, launched on April 25, 2026, sent shockwaves across Mali. JNIM fighters mounted coordinated strikes on Kidal, Gao, Mopti, and the capital Bamako itself, also storming the garrison town of Kati — a junta stronghold just 20 kilometres from the capital — killing the defence minister and the regime's second-in-command, General Sadio Camara. By April 28, jihadist forces had retaken Kidal in alliance with the Azawad Liberation Front (ALF), humiliating Russia's Africa Corps by escorting their fighters out of the city without a shot fired....

With a landmark U.S.-China summit on the horizon, an opinion piece published in the South China Morning Post on May 10, 2026, titled "With the US, China Must Choose Constructive Power Over Destruction" by independent China analyst Dong Lei, makes a pointed case: Beijing stands at a fork in the road, and the path it chooses will shape not only its own future but that of the global order. Dong Lei, described by SCMP as "an independent observer of Chinese politics and history, with a particular interest in China's evolving role in global affairs," argues that foreign affairs are never disconnected episodes but a test of whether nations learn from history. He opens with a sobering catalogue of failures — Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Iran's destabilising role in the Middle East, and the collapse of Libya and Afghanistan — as evidence of what happens when that test is failed. The piece acknowledges China's remarkable trajectory. Its rise has lifted hundre...

As the world fixes its gaze on naval clashes in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled peace talks between Washington and Tehran, a volatile subplot is unfolding largely beyond the headlines — in the borderlands of Balochistan, a region that spans southeastern Iran and western Pakistan, and which could become a decisive, destabilizing variable in a conflict already reshaping the Middle East. The Iran–US war, launched on February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces struck Iranian military infrastructure in what the Pentagon called Operation Epic Fury, has reverberated deeply into Iran's restive southeastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan. Long before the first missiles fell, the region was already a low-intensity war zone. The insurgency there dates back to 2004, driven by Sunni Baloch militant organizations that Tehran designates as terrorists. The most active of these is Jaish ul-Adl — formerly known as Jundallah, designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization by the US as far back as...

Iran is formally asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, with the country's top leadership declaring an end to what Tehran describes as a century of unilateral Western dominance over the critical energy corridor. In a message delivered on April 30, 2026, the Leader of the Islamic Revolution unveiled what Iranian officials are calling a "New Hormuz Order"—a strategic shift that redefines the Islamic Republic's role in the Persian Gulf and challenges the long-standing presence of American military forces in the region. According to the report based on analysis by Mehr News Agency  the declaration came weeks after a major military confrontation between Iran and the United States, which Iranian state media has characterized as a failure of the most advanced U.S. radar, air-defense, and intelligence systems. Tehran argues that the outcome of recent hostilities has exposed the fragility of foreign military bases in the region, undermining the security doctrine of Persi...

U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest bid to claim rapid diplomatic progress with Iran is increasingly at odds with developments on the ground. Writing for the Haaretz, Amos Harel notes that w hile he has presented the indirect talks with Tehran as being on the brink of a breakthrough, including a short declaration of principles to be followed by a 30‑day sprint toward a final agreement, the process appears to be stalling rather than accelerating. Over the weekend, Trump helped broker a three‑day cease-fire in Ukraine, but in the Persian Gulf the gap between his rhetoric and reality is widening. Incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz have continued despite the announced truce, with exchanges of fire reported between U.S. naval forces and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The White House has downplayed these skirmishes and insisted the war has not resumed, yet the ongoing friction underlines how fragile the cease-fire remains and how distant a comprehensive settlement still is. Behi...

The escalating conflict with Iran is accelerating the long-standing rivalry between Algeria and Morocco as both North African nations position themselves to fill Europe's growing energy and trade void, according to an analysis published by Oasis Media Collective on Substack. The crisis has exposed Europe's vulnerability to supply shocks while creating strategic opportunities for the continent's southern neighbors. European energy markets face mounting pressure as crude oil prices surge from $102 to $112 per barrel following President Donald Trump's threats against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With gas storage already running 35% below the five-year average, Europe has turned to Algeria, Africa's third-largest oil reserve holder and a producer of approximately 1.2 million barrels per day. Algeria exported 39.2 billion cubic meters of gas to the European Union in 2024, representing roughly 14-15% of the bloc's total imports and making it Europe...

Tensions between the United States and Iran intensified over the past day as fresh maritime incidents in the Gulf coincided with renewed diplomatic pressure over a possible ceasefire or broader agreement. Reports from major international outlets indicate that Washington is waiting for Tehran’s response to a proposal aimed at ending the conflict, while military activity in the Strait of Hormuz has raised fears of further escalation. According to recent coverage, the United States struck or disabled Iranian-linked tankers after what Washington described as threats to American interests at sea. The latest incidents have further strained shipping routes in one of the world’s most sensitive energy corridors, prompting concern over possible disruptions to global trade. Reuters reported that Iran is still reviewing the US proposal, while American officials have pushed for a swift answer. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tehran should respond quickly, underscoring the urgency of the diploma...

A far‑right party once seen as a fringe offshoot of Greece’s neo‑Nazi Golden Dawn is now on course to become the third‑largest force in Cyprus’ parliament, in a shift that could redraw the island’s political map after the 24 May elections. Poll trend data compiled by PolitPro put the National Popular Front (ELAM) at 13.8% – nearly double its 2021 share – and projects nine seats in the 56‑member House of Representatives, behind only the traditional giants DISY and AKEL. The same model foresees a seven‑party chamber in which DISY and AKEL take 14 seats each, ELAM nine, Odysseas Michaelides’ ALMA six, Fidias Panayiotou’s Direct Democracy (Amesi Dimokratía) five, DIKO six, and Volt two. A separate Alpha–Rai poll, reported by Cyprus Mail, similarly forecasts ELAM in third place with nine MPs, more than doubling the four it secured in 2021, while DIKO slumps to its worst result in the party’s 50‑year history. Recent polling underlines just how narrow the race has become at the top – and how ...

Alexis Tsipras, the former Greek prime minister whose dramatic rise and fall reshaped the country’s political landscape, is orchestrating a carefully calibrated comeback aimed at reassembling the fragmented Greek left and challenging the dominance of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. After a self‑imposed exit from frontline politics following a crushing 2023 defeat, Tsipras is now signaling a return not via SYRIZA but through a new, Tsipras‑centered project that could redefine the opposition for the next national or European election. Tsipras’s withdrawal from active politics began in June 2023, when he resigned as leader of SYRIZA and stepped down from parliament after the party pulled in only about 17.8 percent of the vote, while New Democracy swept to a strong majority of around 40.5 percent. That result marked the end of his 15‑year leadership of the once‑radical left party and deepened doubts about his political future. For much of late 2023 and 2024, he kept a low profile, focu...