Over the last 12 hours the US and Iran have traded direct, attributed strikes — and then, within hours, each reaffirmed that peace talks are still on. That combination is the whole story: this is bargaining through fire, not the opening of a new war. The US conducted self-defense airstrikes on Iranian military sites over the weekend; this morning Iran's IRGC openly claimed a ballistic-missile strike on a US airbase (reported as Ali al-Salem in Kuwait), and Kuwait's air defenses were actively intercepting missiles and drones. It is the sharpest escalation since the April 8 truce, yet it is unfolding at the exact moment both governments insist a near-final ceasefire memorandum is close to signature. The likeliest explanation is that each side is climbing a calibrated escalation ladder to improve its leverage before the deal is inked — striking to signal resolve, then keeping the door open. The ceasefire is intact but visibly stressed; the dominant risk is a single miscalculation ...
Israeli commentator Amos Harel has warned that the image of an Israeli flag flying over Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon is fueling “artificial excitement” that masks a faltering strategy in the current Lebanon war, Haaretz reported on Monday. In a column for the Israeli daily, Harel writes that a single photograph of Israeli and Golani Brigade flags atop the medieval fortress was enough to “completely sideline the necessary conversation about the state of the current war in Lebanon.” “Instead of raising the questions that must be asked about the dubious strategy of the war in the north and the lack of a solution to the threat of exploding drones guided by fiber-optic cables,” he argues, “we got a nostalgic outpouring about this thrilling return to a historic site.” Hezbollah is launching “dozens every day” of such drones, Harel notes, yet the public debate has fixated on symbolism rather than on how to protect troops and northern communities. Harel recalls that Beaufort was first s...