The Levant Files

A close reading of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's April 1 address to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) parliamentary group reveals something beyond the usual sparring with opposition leader Özgür Özel: a significant, carefully worded message directed at foreign audiences. According to political analyst and Yetkin Report editor Murat Yetkin, Ankara's deepest strategic fear is that the US-Israel war on Iran — now in its second month following the surprise strikes of February 28 — could escalate into a full-blown Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict with irreversible regional and global consequences. After reiterating that Turkey would not enter the war and was doing all it could to promote a negotiated settlement, Erdoğan stated: "One of the biggest dangers facing our region is not only the prolongation of the war, but the risk of it turning into a regional internal conflict. Retaliations targeting energy, transportation, and civilian infrastructure are unfortunately...

By Dmitry Kuzyakin The Western coalition's strategy of standoff strikes against Iranian infrastructure has failed to deliver the expected results. Rather than forcing Tehran's capitulation or triggering regime change, the United States and Israel have instead witnessed a rallying of Iranian society and encountered a technological surprise for which conventional militaries were wholly unprepared — according to a prominent Russian defence analyst writing in the Kremlin-aligned outlet Izvestia. A Checkmate of Their Own Making Writing in the Russian daily, Kuzyakin invokes the chess term zugzwang — a position in which every available move worsens the player's standing — to describe Washington and Tel Aviv's current predicament. Iran's mass deployment of drones and its effective stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz have created conditions where continuing the conflict carries unacceptable economic costs for the West, he argues. Strikes on coalition partner facilities h...

President Donald Trump wants this war to be seen as a triumph of force, resolve and American dominance. But the facts on the ground point to something else entirely: a dangerous strategic deadlock of his own making. For weeks, Trump has projected confidence, insisting that Washington is close to finishing the job in Iran. Yet the war is still raging, missiles are still flying, and the region is sliding deeper into chaos. If victory is so near, why do the hostilities continue to expand? Why is the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, sending shockwaves through global shipping and energy markets? Why does the international economy now look increasingly hostage to a conflict the White House claimed it could control? The problem is not only that Trump overpromised. It is that he launched and escalated a war without a credible political endgame. The original logic behind the campaign was clear enough: maximum military pressure would either break the Islamic Republic or force a transformatio...

The five-week-old conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran intensified sharply on Thursday as US President Donald Trump declared that American forces had largely destroyed Iran's military capacity and were close to achieving their war objectives, while Tehran defiantly rejected any ceasefire and continued missile strikes against Israel and US assets across the region. Trump's Primetime Address In a nationally televised address, Trump claimed that Iran had requested a ceasefire — an assertion Iranian officials swiftly and mockingly denied. He warned Tehran that it must agree to a deal within two to three weeks or face strikes on every one of its power plants, threatening to bomb Iran "back to the Stone Ages" — a phrase widely associated with US Air Force General Curtis LeMay, who supervised the destruction of Japanese cities in World War II. The threat echoed a pattern of similar US ultimatums stretching back to the Korean War, Vietnam, and the post-Septemb...

President Donald Trump's latest Truth Social post claiming that Iran's leadership has formally requested a ceasefire has drawn immediate scrutiny from analysts and a sharp counter-narrative from Tehran — while Iran's Revolutionary Guards issued a fresh military warning in the same news cycle, underlining the volatile and contradictory signals emanating from all sides of the conflict. Trump wrote on Truth Social that the "new president" of Iran's government — described as "far less radical and much smarter than his predecessors" — had recently asked the United States for a ceasefire. He added that Washington would consider such a request only once the Strait of Hormuz was "open, free, and safe," and confirmed that American strikes against the Islamic Republic would continue in the meantime. Factual Problems In Trump's Framing The  post contains several verifiable inaccuracies. According to Peter Beaumont's from the Guardian, analysis...

Three Indonesian Blue Helmets serving with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) have been killed in separate incidents in southern Lebanon, prompting Jakarta to call for a thorough and impartial UN investigation and raising urgent questions about the safety of peacekeeping personnel in the conflict zone. According to the Jakarta Post editorial, one peacekeeper died in Adchit al-Qusayr and two others in Bani Hayyan. Indonesia's government and press have been swift to condemn the actions that led to the deaths, describing them as a blatant violation of international law, which prohibits warring parties from targeting UN personnel. Although UNIFIL's investigation is ongoing, Indonesian officials and commentators have pointed to Israel as responsible for the incidents, rejecting Israeli military claims that the affected areas constituted active combat zones against Hezbollah. Critics note that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) possess advanced targeting technology tha...

In an exclusive interview with The Telegraph published on 1 April, US President Donald Trump described NATO as a "paper tiger" and stated that American withdrawal from the alliance was "beyond reconsideration." The interview came against the backdrop of allied refusal to support the US–Israeli air campaign against Iran, launched on 28 February, and specifically to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has effectively blockaded for weeks. Trump singled out the United Kingdom for rebuke, mocking the state of the Royal Navy and dismissing Prime Minister Keir Starmer's priorities. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking hours before the interview aired, called NATO a "one-way street" and confirmed that a formal re-examination of US membership would follow the conclusion of hostilities. Administration sources also floated a "pay-to-play" model that could strip non-compliant allies of decision-making power, alongside renewed consideratio...

The US-Israel war on Iran entered its 33rd day on Wednesday amid a sharp escalation of hostilities across the region, with Iranian missiles striking an oil tanker in Qatari territorial waters, fresh Israeli strikes on Beirut, and US President Donald Trump threatening to pull Washington out of NATO after European allies refused to join military operations against Tehran. Tanker Hit Off Qatar's Coast Qatar's Defence Ministry confirmed that three missiles launched from Iran struck near its territorial waters, with two intercepted and a third hitting an oil tanker leased by QatarEnergy. The strike marked one of the most significant direct attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure since the conflict began, raising fresh alarm over the safety of oil shipping in the region. Iran has drawn widespread condemnation for firing missiles indiscriminately at Gulf states regardless of nationality, a pattern the Iranian foreign ministry has simultaneously sought to distance itself from by calling ...

  A new MetroPoll survey suggests that a strong majority of the Turkish public opposes any direct involvement in the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran, while still viewing NATO as an important pillar of Turkey’s security. The findings offer fresh insight into how President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s foreign policy is being received at home. According to Yetkin Report and the results from MetroPoll’s March 2026 “Pulse of Turkey” survey, shared by senior pollster Özer Sencar,  68.1% of respondents said Turkey should remain neutral in the conflict. Another  22.6% said Ankara should side with Iran, while only  2.1% supported aligning with the US and Israel. The remaining respondents were undecided. The numbers point to a clear public preference: Turkey should avoid being drawn into war. At the same time, another result in the same survey reveals a more complex picture of public opinion. When asked about NATO’s role in Turkey’s security,  61.0% described it ...