The Levant Files

For decades, the central question in the US-Iran confrontation was whether Tehran would obtain the ultimate deterrent: a nuclear weapon. But in the latest round of escalation, Iran’s hardline media and conservative political establishment appear to be advancing a different answer. In their reading, Iran may not need an atom bomb to impose strategic costs on Washington and its allies. It already has the Strait of Hormuz. That is the central message running through Iran’s conservative and hardline outlets after the latest exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran. The line is not merely that Iran retaliated. It is that the balance of deterrence has shifted from underground nuclear facilities to a narrow maritime chokepoint through which a major share of the world’s energy trade must pass. The latest escalation followed US strikes on Iranian targets after attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. AP reported that President Donald Trump said the ceasefire was “o...

The confrontation between the United States and Iran has entered a more dangerous phase after a fresh exchange of strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears that a fragile interim understanding between the two sides may be collapsing. The latest escalation began after Washington accused Iran of attacking commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy corridors. The United States responded with a new wave of military strikes on Iranian targets, which US officials described as an effort to protect freedom of navigation and keep the waterway open to international shipping, Reuters reported. Iran then retaliated by targeting US-linked military sites in Gulf Arab states, including Bahrain and Kuwait. Iranian state-linked reports said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck dozens of US military installations, including facilities around the US Fifth Fleet area in Bahrain and bases in Kuwait. Mehr News said the IRGC claimed to have hit 85 ...

As NATO leaders wrapped up their 36th summit in Ankara this week, Russian state and state-aligned media offered a portrait of an alliance simultaneously hardening its posture toward Moscow and fraying at the seams — a dual narrative that dominated Russian coverage over the past 24 hours. A "Long-Term Threat" Designation Takes Center Stage The most-cited element of Russian coverage was the summit's draft final declaration, which multiple Russian outlets — relaying reporting from Reuters and Euronews — noted would formally label Russia a "long-term threat" to Euro-Atlantic security and stability, alongside a reaffirmation of Article 5 collective-defense commitments. A widely circulated piece carried by Rambler News described the declaration as fixing new "rules of the game" for decades to come, tying the Russia designation to a parallel pledge of €70 billion in defense assistance to Ukraine for 2026, with a comparable commitment implied for 2027. InoSMI,...

The NATO summit held in Ankara on July 7-8 marks the formal launch of what alliance officials are calling "NATO 3.0" — but according to prominent Turkish journalist Murat Yetkin, this label is really shorthand for the opening of a second Cold War, one in which democratic backsliding in member states is treated as a secondary concern. Writing in the Yetkin Report on July 7, Murat Yetkin argues that viewed through this lens, the ongoing legal cases against Turkey's main opposition CHP party and Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu no longer appear contradictory to Turkey's NATO role. He notes that President Trump's renewed warnings about "the communist threat" during America's 250th anniversary speech fit the same framework, as does NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's own choice to walk hand-in-hand with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara despite raising press-freedom concerns. Strategic and military imperatives, Yetkin writes, tend to override righ...

The fragile US-Iran ceasefire faced its sharpest test in weeks overnight, as American forces struck dozens of Iranian military sites and Tehran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US installations in Bahrain and Kuwait — all unfolding against the backdrop of the funeral procession for slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Below, a five-question breakdown of what happened, what's still unfolding, and what it means. What happened? US Central Command launched a wave of strikes on Iranian air defenses, radar sites and anti-ship missile positions, along with more than 60 small boats operated by Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Washington said the operation was retaliation for Iranian attacks a day earlier on three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, among them a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi-flagged tanker. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hit back, striking what it described as 85 US military installations in Bahrain and Kuwait — including the US Fifth...

Two explosive devices detonated in central Damascus on Tuesday morning, injuring at least 18 people just as French President Emmanuel Macron arrived at the Syrian presidential palace for a historic meeting with President Ahmed al-Sharaa, in an attack that has not been claimed by any group. What Happened The explosions struck near the Four Seasons Hotel, where Macron had spent the night, and beside the nearby Ministry of Tourism, according to Syria's state-run SANA news agency. Syrian security officials said the blasts occurred while officers were attempting to dismantle two "primitively" made improvised explosive devices discovered during field operations — one planted inside a parked vehicle and the other hidden in a garbage container. At least 18 people were wounded, including four police officers, though the site was located "outside the security perimeter" designated for Macron's residence, the Interior Ministry stressed. The timing was striking: the bla...

  Greek shipping companies have generated at least $3.8 billion in revenues transporting Russian oil over the past three years, capitalizing on a sanctions framework that permits the trade under strict conditions, according to an analysis by the Financial Times. The investigation, based on freight cost estimates from Argus Media and tanker movement data from Kpler, found that Dynacom Tankers — founded by Greek shipping billionaire George Prokopiou — led the trade with at least $915 million in revenues, accounting for nearly a quarter of the total among Greek shipowners since July 2023. The Onassis Group’s Olympic Shipping and Management ranked second with at least $404 million, while Athens-based Stealth Maritime and Polembros Shipping each earned more than $200 million from the trade. The activity falls within the G7 price cap mechanism, introduced in December 2022 to limit Moscow’s energy revenues while maintaining global oil flows. Western operators are permitted to transport Ru...

The NATO summit opens in Ankara on Tuesday and Wednesday with the alliance confronting what Chinese foreign policy analysts characterize as a fundamental identity crisis. According to Dong Yifan, an associate research fellow at the Belt and Road Academy of Beijing Language and Culture University, writing in Global Times, Washington’s unilateral “America First” orientation has deepened transatlantic rifts to the point where NATO’s core function is now in question. Disputes over Greenland and divergent approaches to Middle East conflicts have created structural challenges to NATO’s traditional role as a coordinator of transatlantic security interests. Expectations for the Ankara summit have been deliberately lowered. As Dong notes, European diplomats are privately hoping for “a dull NATO summit” precisely to avoid further diplomatic ruptures. The US president recently reinforced these concerns by declaring that continuing the alliance’s “one-sided path” would be “ridiculous,” confirming...

Turkish authorities detained at least 548 people in operations and police interventions against protests during the 20 days leading up to the NATO summit in Ankara, according to a report by Ufuk Sepetçi published in Cumhuriyet on July 7. The two-day summit, which opens in Ankara on Tuesday, has been preceded by extensive security measures, including a sweeping protest ban, house raids, road closures, online access restrictions and disputed media accreditation decisions. Figures compiled by Cumhuriyet show that at least 548 people were taken into custody between June 20 and July 6 in operations linked to the summit and in interventions against anti-NATO demonstrations. Those detained reportedly included journalists, lawyers, academics, students, trade unionists, association members and political party representatives. In the first Ankara-centred wave of detentions, prosecutors issued detention orders for 241 people. Of those, 225 were taken into custody, while 178 were subsequently rema...