The Levant Files

  An unusually sharp war of words has erupted between Baghdad and Ankara after comments by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan triggered a wave of denunciations from Iraqi officials and politicians, exposing the fragility beneath a recent thaw in Turkey–Iraq ties.  In a televised interview with CNN Türk on February 9, Fidan argued that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) “occupies vast areas of land” in Iraq and urged Baghdad to make a “wiser decision” on confronting the group, which has waged a decades-long insurgency against Turkey. He hinted that a short military operation could eliminate the PKK’s presence on Iraqi soil, signaling Ankara’s readiness to act if Iraqi authorities fail to move decisively.  The remarks sparked immediate fury in Baghdad, where the Foreign Ministry summoned Turkish Ambassador Anıl Bora İnan to deliver a formal protest. Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammed Hussein Bahr al-Uloom condemned Fidan’s statements as “an affront to friendly relations,” a...

Zeynep Gürcanlı Pazarlıkta esneklik göstermesi gerekenin ABD’deki Trump yönetimi olduğu açık. İş, Trump’ın Tahran’dan gelecek küçük tavizleri hem iç, hem de dış kamuoyuna “diplomatik zafer” gibi pazarlayıp pazarlayamayacağında kilitleniyor. İran’daki Molla rejimi de “gelmekte olanın” farkında; Tahran’daki dini Lider Ayetullah Hamaney’in yönetimindeki muhafazakar yapı  ”önlemler alma” çabasında. Bir dönem Türkiye’de de çok tartışılan “Büyük Ortadoğu Projesi” (BOP) bölgesinde sular hiç durulmuyor. BOP’un “fikir babası” olan ABD yine başrolde. Kabaca Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika’ya Amerikan yanlısı ve İsrail’e herhangi bir tehdit içermeyen bir “düzen” getirmeyi hedefleyen BOP çerçevesinde, yeni hedef İran. Bölgede İsrail dışındaki ABD yanlısı rejimler 80 milyondan fazla nüfuslu İran’da herhangi bir “kaos” istemiyorlar. Komşu ülkeler, İran’da “alternatif” belirlenmeden Molla rejiminin devrilmesi halinde, bölgede hem Hürmüz Boğazı merkezli ticaret yollarının olumsuz etkileneceğinin hem de k...

Tehran is accelerating defenses at its most vital surviving nuclear facility near Natanz, leveraging delays in potential US or Israeli strikes to render the underground complex nearly impervious to attack. High-resolution satellite images reveal a flurry of construction activity at the Kolang-Gaz La Mountain tunnel site, also known as Pickaxe Mountain, as analyzed by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS).  According to a Jerusalem Post article by Yonah Jeremy Bob published February 12, the imagery from February 10 shows Tehran pouring concrete over the western tunnel entrance extension and leveling rock and soil at eastern portals, with dump trucks, cement mixers, backhoes, and cranes swarming the area. These reinforcements add overburden material like extra rock, soil, or concrete, bolstering protection against airstrikes that devastated most Natanz facilities—including existing centrifuges—during the Israel-Iran War in June 2025. Fordow, another deeply burie...

A new US-led economic corridor through the South Caucasus is emerging as the centerpiece of Washington’s latest diplomatic push, with Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan aimed at anchoring both states in a shared infrastructure and trade project designed to lessen their dependence on Russia and Iran.  US Bets on an Economic Corridor to Lock in Peace JD Vance’s tour of Yerevan and Baku was framed not only as support for the fragile Armenia–Azerbaijan peace process, but as the launchpad for a wider east–west corridor that would connect the Caspian to Europe while bypassing Russia and Iran.  US officials presented the idea as a long‑term answer to the region’s chronic insecurity: if Armenia and Azerbaijan are bound together by energy, transport and technology projects, the cost of renewed conflict would rise sharply for both capitals.  At the heart of this vision is TRIPP – the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity – a branded transit and t...

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pressed U.S. President Donald Trump during their February 10, 2026, White House meeting to uphold Israel's red lines, especially freedom of military action against Iran regardless of any U.S.-Iran deal. The closed-door talks, lasting over 2.5 hours, centered on Netanyahu's "evidence file" exposing Iran's negotiation deceptions, protest crackdowns, and refusal to address missiles or proxies beyond nuclear issues.  Meeting Highlights Netanyahu demanded assurances for unrestricted Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, even post-deal, citing 2,000 impending ballistic missiles likened to "small nuclear bombs." Trump responded positively but noncommittally, tweeting that talks were productive and negotiations would continue to test a nuclear- and missile-free accord. U.S. envoys like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had pre-briefed Israel on Oman talks, setting the stage amid U.S. military reinforcements.  Strategic Analy...

Nikolaos Stelya 11 Şubat 2026 tarihinde Ankara’da gerçekleşen Başbakan Kiryakos Miçotakis-Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan zirvesi, Yunanistan ile Türkiye arasındaki ilişkilerde “zorunlu normalleşme” döneminin en kritik kilometre taşlarından biri olarak kayda geçiyor. Ancak bu buluşma, her iki tarafın da beklentilerini ve stratejik önceliklerini şekillendiren temel bir gerilimle yüklüydü: Atina için zirve, Ege’deki gerilimi yönetmek ve askerî bir çatışma riskini önlemek amacıyla “risk yönetimi” aracı olarak görülürken; Ankara için, bu, “pozitif gündem” çerçevesinde ilişkileri normalize etme çabasıyla birlikte, Yunanistan’ın askerî yığınağına karşı “karşılıklı saygı” temelinde bir duruş sergileme fırsatıydı. Seçim Takvimi ve Çok Cepheli Operasyonel Baskı: İç Politika Boyutu Zirvenin arka planında yatan en belirgin faktörlerden biri, tarafların iç politik zamanlamaları ve bölgesel operasyonel kapasitelerindeki asimetridir. Yunanistan açısından bakıldığında, Miçotakis hükûmeti 2027 orta...

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's upcoming meeting with President Donald Trump is expected to focus on clarifying American intentions regarding potential military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities should diplomatic negotiations fail, according to diplomatic sources familiar with the preparations. Writing for Israel Hayom, Amb. Freddy Eytan, a former Foreign Ministry senior adviser who served in Israel’s embassies in Paris and Brussels, warns that Western diplomats often misunderstand the dynamics of negotiating with Tehran. "Western diplomats negotiate for a better future and to secure a solid agreement, while the Iranians, Qataris, or Turks behave like carpet merchants in an oriental bazaar," writes Eytan, who was Israel’s first Ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Mauritania and a researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. "They seek only immediate gain without considering the long term." The veteran diplomat argues that t...

The buildup of American military forces in the Persian Gulf has triggered significant strategic debate in Moscow regarding Washington's evolving intentions toward Tehran. According to Russian foreign policy experts closely monitoring the trajectory of U.S.–Iranian tensions, the White House is increasingly likely to view limited military action not as a prelude to regime change but as the opening phase of a calculated strategic algorithm.  From the Kremlin's perspective, American decision-makers consider a "strike and observe" approach—calibrated military engagement followed by careful assessment of Iranian regime stability, societal response, and military resilience—to be the most rational option for addressing the complex security challenges posed by the Islamic Republic. This assessment from Moscow suggests that Washington sees the current moment as an opportunity to test Tehran through controlled aggression, maintaining the flexibility to escalate, retreat, or retu...

Russia is developing contingency plans to withdraw its personnel from Iran's sole operational nuclear facility as security concerns mount across the Middle East, officials confirmed this week. According to AzerNEWS, Moscow is preparing to evacuate specialists working at Iran's Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant amid heightened regional tensions and growing concerns over security risks surrounding nuclear facilities. Russian officials stated that coordination between the Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry is underway to ensure the safety of personnel deployed at the site, as was stated last week. Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom has confirmed that evacuation scenarios are being considered, though no final decision has been taken so far. Meanwhile, video footage shows heightened activity linked to personnel movements, adding visual confirmation to reports that precautionary measures are underway. While the footage does not indicate an immediate evacuation, it aligns wit...