The Levant Files

In the last couple of hours, Iran escalated its regional military campaign by launching a series of drone and missile attacks targeting Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq. The strikes, attributed to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), followed retaliatory US and Israeli actions on February 28 that reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Between February 28 and March 2, multiple bases of Kurdish opposition factions were hit in Erbil, Duhok, Sulaymaniyah, and Koya.  The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala Party, and other groups confirmed being targeted. PAK released video footage showing what it claimed was a Shahed 136 drone attack near Erbil. Ballistic missiles were also launched, though some were intercepted. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein stated that Erbil had been struck by over 70 missiles and drones, underscoring Iraq’s role as a battleground in the broader I...

In a swift show of European solidarity, France is sending anti-missile and anti-drone systems, along with at least one naval frigate, to Cyprus.  The deployment was confirmed by President Emmanuel Macron. A second French frigate is expected to follow shortly. Direct Response to Regional Escalation This military support is a direct response to a drone attack on the British RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus, which occurred in the early hours of March 2. An Iranian-made Shahed drone struck the base's runway, causing minimal damage but exposing critical air defense vulnerabilities. Two additional drones were intercepted later.  French officials confirmed that President Macron conveyed the deployment plans to President Christodoulides after two phone calls on Monday, during which Christodoulides formally requested assistance. The specific air defense systems being sent have not been publicly disclosed, but they are intended to bolster Cyprus's ability to counter low-flying drones and mis...

On February 28, 2026, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East was violently rewritten. In this episode of Deep Dive, we unpack the unprecedented joint US-Israeli military campaign—dubbed "Operation Epic Fury"—that effectively decapitated the top tier of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In a highly coordinated blitz involving hundreds of aircraft and standoff munitions, allied forces eliminated Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his top military brass. Controversially, the strike was executed precisely as back-channel diplomatic talks were underway in Geneva, shattering global trust and drawing fierce condemnation from Moscow and Beijing. Drawing on exclusive intelligence from The Levant Files, this episode explores the catastrophic cascading effects of the assassination. Rather than capitulating, the surviving hardliners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) seized total state control and triggered a multi-front regional war. We detail Iran’s massive r...

The killing of Ayatollah Khamenei threatens to unravel years of Russian investment and strategic partnership with Tehran. Yet as Iran's oil exports falter and global energy markets convulse, the Kremlin may find a fleeting — if bitter — silver lining in the chaos. The massive US-Israeli air strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February have confronted Moscow with one of its most consequential geopolitical crises in years. Iran is one of Russia's strongest international allies, and the sudden decimation of its leadership raises urgent questions about billions of dollars in Russian investments, the future of critical infrastructure projects, and the Kremlin's already eroding influence across the Middle East. Yet as The Moscow Times reported, citing analysts and Russian officials, the picture is not entirely bleak for Moscow. Amid the wreckage of a partnership years in the making, Russia may find narrow, short-term opportunities — particul...

The US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's Supreme Leader have redrawn the geopolitical map overnight. But while the world reacts with alarm, Beijing's conspicuously restrained response hints at a deeper calculation — one in which a distracted, overstretched America opens doors China has long been waiting to walk through. The joint US-Israeli air strikes launched on 28 February against Iran — which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials — have sent shockwaves through the Middle East and beyond. Yet one of the world's most consequential reactions has been notable for its restraint: China's. According to ThinkChina, citing Lianhe Zaobao correspondent Yu Zeyuan, Beijing's measured response is far from accidental. It reflects a deliberate strategic calculus — one that weighs the risks of entanglement against the potential dividends a prolonged American military commitment in the Middle East could deliver for Chinese ambitions across the...

As fighting enters its third day, Iranian outlets document devastation on the ground, interrogate the legal basis for Washington's intervention, and warn of a protracted "Great Game" that transcends Trump and Netanyahu Since the United States and Israel launched coordinated military operations against Iran on 28 February 2026, Persian-language media—spanning reformist dailies inside the country, diaspora opposition channels, and regional outlets in Afghanistan—have produced a torrent of news coverage, field reporting, and strategic commentary. Together, these analyses paint a multi-layered picture: of a capital city reeling from air strikes, of a diplomatic process reduced to ashes, of an information blackout compounding civilian suffering, and of a confrontation whose roots, many commentators insist, reach far deeper than the nuclear dossier or any single leader's ambitions. The following survey draws on the most prominent analytical and reportorial pieces currently ...

  In the aftermath of a devastating US-Israeli military operation that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior officials on Saturday, Iran has lashed out with missile and drone attacks not only against Israel but across the Persian Gulf — striking Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman. The decision to target the very nations that had repeatedly rejected involvement in the conflict and championed diplomacy with Tehran is being condemned by experts as a catastrophic strategic blunder, one that is rapidly eroding Iran's regional credibility, dismantling years of painstaking rapprochement, and pushing formerly neutral Gulf states closer to the US-Israeli orbit, according to an extensive analysis published by the Atlantic Council. None of the Gulf states had launched attacks against Iran from their territory. Several had served as mediators. Yet Iran's retaliatory strikes — which hit not only military installations but air...

  Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabbari, a senior commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has issued a stark and direct threat against the island nation of Cyprus, vowing to launch missile attacks to expel U.S. military forces. The statement, broadcast on Iranian state television and widely reported on March 2, follows a drone strike on the UK’s RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus. Jabbari declared: “The Americans have moved most of their aircraft to Cyprus. We will launch missiles at Cyprus with such intensity that the Americans will be forced to leave the island.”  This full quote, confirmed by multiple media outlets including Sigmalive and Caliber.az, forms the core of Iran’s new strategic warning. Jabbari framed the threat as a defensive and justified response to what he described as the U.S. relocating a significant portion of its regional airpower to Cyprus. Expanded Justification for Targeting Cyprus In a more detailed segment of his address, Jabbari provided ...

  In a dramatic and deeply unsettling escalation, senior Israeli officials have revealed that US President Donald Trump has no intention of halting military operations against Iran until the Islamic Republic's government is completely overthrown, The Jerusalem Post reported exclusively on Monday. The revelation paints a chilling picture of an open-ended military campaign with no clear exit strategy, one that threatens to engulf the entire Middle East in unprecedented turmoil. "Trump intends to go all the way with this move," a senior Israeli official told The Jerusalem Post. "He has already marked the target. He wants to replace the regime, and he has no intention of taking his foot off the gas." The alarming assessment directly contradicts statements from American officials who spoke with Reuters and expressed serious doubts about the feasibility of regime change in Iran — suggesting a dangerous disconnect between the administration's ambitions and the real...