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Border Inferno: Afghanistan–Pakistan Conflict Enters Dangerous New Phase

Afghanistan and Pakistan have slid into a perilous new stage of open conflict, as intense cross‑border fighting, mounting civilian casualties, and a surge in militant attacks inside Pakistan converge into what officials on both sides now describe as a de facto war. Over the past 72 hours, heavy shelling, airstrikes, and ground clashes along the frontier have deepened fears of a wider regional crisis and further destabilization of Afghanistan’s already fragile humanitarian landscape. Frontline Under Fire In recent days, residents along the Durand Line have reported almost continuous explosions and exchanges of heavy weapons fire, particularly across sections of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and adjacent Afghan provinces. Afghan sources claim Taliban border forces have overrun or seized several Pakistani outposts in contested sectors, presenting the gains as proof that Kabul will not tolerate attacks on its soil. Pakistani officials, however, insist their troops have held firm, asserting that they ...
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TLF SPECIAL: Damascus's Calculated Silence

Understanding the Syrian Interim Government's Limited Response  to the US–Israel–Iran War  Dr Nikolaos Stelgias   The escalation of hostilities between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, beginning in late February 2026, has fundamentally redrawn the security architecture of the Middle East. Yet one actor whose response has been conspicuously restrained is Syria — or, more precisely, the interim government in Damascus led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa (widely known by his earlier nom de guerre). In a conflict that has directly implicated Iran and its regional proxies, and that has seen missile and drone exchanges over Arab airspace, Syria's public posture has been limited to a handful of carefully worded diplomatic statements. This restraint is not accidental. It reflects a deliberate strategic calculus shaped by domestic fragility, geopolitical repositioning, and the imperatives of post-Assad state-building. This analysis examines the rea...

Iran, Turkey, and the Limits of Escalation: A Multi-Actor Contest Reshaping the Middle East

  As regional alignments fracture and great-power competition intensifies, a new analysis warns that the Iran file is no longer a discrete crisis — it is a multi-front contest with consequences stretching from the Levant to Ankara's domestic politics. The crisis around Iran cannot be reduced to a single flashpoint. Writing for Global Panorama, political analyst Ahmet Erdi Öztürk argues that the Iran file is best understood as a high-density, multi-actor contest in which shifts on the Syrian and Iraqi battlefields, great-power signalling, and domestic political vulnerabilities interact in real time. Any scenario about Iran is never only about Iran, Öztürk writes, noting its reverberations across the Levant, the Gulf, energy markets, migration routes, and even Turkey’s domestic Kurdish question. Central to Öztürk’s analysis is Turkey’s posture. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has been unequivocal in recent weeks, stating that Turkey opposes any military intervention against Ira...

Turkey Intercepts Iranian Ballistic Missile Over Eastern Mediterranean as War Enters Fifth Day

Turkey shot down an Iranian ballistic missile that crossed Iraqi and Syrian airspace before entering Turkish airspace on Wednesday, as the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran entered its fifth consecutive day of strikes with no signs of abating. Turkey's Ministry of National Defence confirmed that a NATO air and missile defence system deployed in the Eastern Mediterranean intercepted and destroyed the projectile before it could cause any damage. A debris fragment from the interceptor missile landed in the Dörtyol district of Hatay province, with no casualties reported. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan subsequently contacted his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi to convey Ankara's strong protest over the incident and to urge all parties to refrain from escalatory steps. The Turkish Defence Ministry issued a firm warning that Ankara reserves the right to respond to any hostile act and that all necessary measures would be taken without hesitation to defend Turkish terri...

TLF SPECIAL: Who Is Mojtaba Khamenei? The New Religious Leader of Iran

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has reportedly been elected as the country’s new Supreme Leader following his father’s death in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on Tehran on February 28, 2026. Multiple sources, including Iran International and NDTV, confirm that the Assembly of Experts chose Mojtaba as the next leader on March 4, 2026, under significant pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). At 56 years old, Mojtaba is now the highest authority in Iran’s theocratic system, assuming control over the military, judiciary, and all state affairs.  Born on September 8, 1969, in Mashhad, Mojtaba grew up during the revolutionary movement against the Shah. He later studied under prominent conservative clerics in Qom, including Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah Yazdi, though he holds only mid-ranking clerical status and is not recognized as an ayatollah. Despite never holding elected office, he has long been a powerful behind-th...

US and Israel Intensify Sweeping Military Campaign Against Iran as Mojtaba Khamenei Named New Supreme Leader

The United States and Israel have entered the fourth day of a massive joint military operation against Iran, striking nearly 2,000 targets across the country, destroying nuclear facilities, sinking much of the Iranian navy, and decimating the Islamic Republic's missile infrastructure — all while Tehran retaliates with waves of ballistic missiles and drones targeting neighboring Arab states and Israel. According to Iran International, the Assembly of Experts, under pressure from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has selected Mojtaba Khamenei — son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — as the next leader of the Islamic Republic. Khamenei was killed on Saturday, February 28 (9 Esfand), in a targeted strike on his office in Tehran, according to earlier reports confirmed by the outlet. "Operation Epic Fury": Largest US Deployment in a Generation Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), released a video update on the operation dubbed ...

The Secret Behind the Crisis for Cyprus: Nuclear Weapons at Akrotiri?

In a sharply critical commentary published in his column in the Cypriot news site Offsite, Cypriot journalist Andreas Paraschos has raised serious questions about the Cypriot government's handling of recent security developments involving Iranian military activity near the island — and has pointed to what he calls the unspoken "secret" at the heart of the crisis: the presence of nuclear weapons at the British Sovereign Base Areas in Akrotiri. According to Paraschos, on Sunday, 1 March, the Cypriot government — through President Nikos Christodoulides and Government Spokesman Letymbiotes — rushed to deny statements made by British Defence Secretary John Healey, who revealed during a television appearance that two Iranian missiles had been launched in the direction of Cyprus, where British military bases are located. Healey clarified that London was "fairly certain" the missiles were not aimed at the bases, but argued the incident demonstrated the "indiscrimin...

ONLY IN TLF: Iran’s Supreme Leader Succession: Candidates and Constitutional Process

Iran is navigating a high-stakes leadership transition following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026.  The country is now governed by a provisional leadership council as the Assembly of Experts prepares to select a permanent successor.  This marks only the second leadership change since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Interim Leadership in Place A three-member Provisional Leadership Council (PLC) has assumed executive powers under Article 111 of Iran’s constitution.  It consists of: - President Masoud Pezeshkian (reformist) - Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i (hardliner) - Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, senior cleric and Guardian Council member  The council will govern until the Assembly of Experts appoints a new Supreme Leader. Potential Candidates for Supreme Leader The 88-member Assembly of Experts will convene to choose a successor who must be a male, senior Shia cleric with political compet...

IMPORTANT: Iran Launches Wave of Drone and Missile Strikes on Kurdish Opposition in Northern Iraq

In the last couple of hours, Iran escalated its regional military campaign by launching a series of drone and missile attacks targeting Iranian Kurdish opposition groups based in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq. The strikes, attributed to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), followed retaliatory US and Israeli actions on February 28 that reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Between February 28 and March 2, multiple bases of Kurdish opposition factions were hit in Erbil, Duhok, Sulaymaniyah, and Koya.  The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala Party, and other groups confirmed being targeted. PAK released video footage showing what it claimed was a Shahed 136 drone attack near Erbil. Ballistic missiles were also launched, though some were intercepted. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein stated that Erbil had been struck by over 70 missiles and drones, underscoring Iraq’s role as a battleground in the broader I...

France Deploys Air Defense Systems and Frigates to Cyprus

In a swift show of European solidarity, France is sending anti-missile and anti-drone systems, along with at least one naval frigate, to Cyprus.  The deployment was confirmed by President Emmanuel Macron. A second French frigate is expected to follow shortly. Direct Response to Regional Escalation This military support is a direct response to a drone attack on the British RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus, which occurred in the early hours of March 2. An Iranian-made Shahed drone struck the base's runway, causing minimal damage but exposing critical air defense vulnerabilities. Two additional drones were intercepted later.  French officials confirmed that President Macron conveyed the deployment plans to President Christodoulides after two phone calls on Monday, during which Christodoulides formally requested assistance. The specific air defense systems being sent have not been publicly disclosed, but they are intended to bolster Cyprus's ability to counter low-flying drones and mis...