The Levant Files

  According to Iran's state-affiliated Press TV, a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire has been agreed after 40 days of conflict, with Washington reportedly accepting a comprehensive 10-point Iranian proposal.   Iran's military and political establishment is framing the ceasefire reached this week as a decisive strategic victory, with senior officials insisting the United States failed to achieve any of its objectives in the 40-day conflict that began on February 28. Brigadier General Mohammad Akrami-Nia, spokesperson for Iran's Army, stated on Thursday, according to Press TV, that "the enemy failed to achieve any of these goals, including macro, operational, and covert [objectives], and suffered a multilayered defeat in practice." He described the US and Israel as having entered the war aiming at "overthrowing the establishment of the Islamic Republic, making a regime change, and preparing the ground for the country's disintegration" — none of which, he arg...

The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran announced on the night of April 7–8 is unlikely to bring lasting calm to the Middle East, with both sides expected to use the pause to significantly reinforce their military positions, according to Russian newspaper Izvestia, citing multiple Russian military analysts. According to Izvestia, the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group is already en route to the Persian Gulf region, along with the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer carrying US Marines — a deployment the paper notes is proceeding regardless of the ceasefire. Once in position, the American naval air component in the region would exceed 200 carrier-based strike aircraft, Izvestia reports. The Russian outlet quotes military analyst Yuri Knutov as saying that Washington has so far failed to achieve its core strategic objectives: the Iranian government remains in place, the country has not been partitioned, and both its missile and nuclear programmes are still function...

A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced barely hours earlier, appeared on the verge of collapse on Wednesday evening as Israel launched its heaviest bombardment of Lebanon since the war began, Iran re-closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran's parliament speaker declared further negotiations "unreasonable." The two-week truce, which followed 41 days of intense fighting between Iran and a US-Israeli coalition, had briefly raised hopes of a diplomatic off-ramp in one of the most devastating regional conflicts in decades. Instead, the first day of the ceasefire degenerated into a cascading series of violations, contradictory statements, and fresh bloodshed — raising the spectre of an immediate return to full-scale hostilities. The Ceasefire and Its Contradictions The agreement was announced on Tuesday evening Washington time by President Donald Trump, who described a 10-point Iranian proposal, conveyed through Pakistani Prime Minister Shehb...

  By Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias  In a remarkable display of diplomatic achievement, the United States, Israel, and Iran announced a ceasefire on Tuesday night that has already proven itself entirely indistinguishable from the conflict it was meant to end — at least if you happen to live in Lebanon. The good news arrived swiftly: US President Donald Trump announced the historic pause in hostilities, and the guns fell silent. Or rather, some of them did. In some places. Sort of. By Wednesday morning, the IDF had struck over 100 Hezbollah command centers and military sites across Beirut and southern Lebanon in what it proudly described as its "largest coordinated wave of strikes" since the launch of Operation Roaring Lion. One can only imagine how the smaller waves must have felt. The strikes targeted Hezbollah headquarters, intelligence facilities, missile infrastructure, naval units, and the elite Radwan force — a comprehensive to-do list that, by any reasonable measure, suggests t...

While US and Israeli strikes continue to degrade Iran's military infrastructure, Tehran is quietly winning the battle that matters most — the psychological and civil arena — according to a sharp analytical piece published in the Israeli daily Maariv by reserve Lieutenant Colonel Amit Yagur. Yagur argues that the fundamental flaw in the Western approach to the conflict lies in its almost exclusive focus on the military domain. Washington, he writes, operates under the assumption that stripping Iran of its military capabilities will force the regime into submission. Israel, until recently, held a similar logic in Gaza and Lebanon, measuring success through strikes on senior figures and weapons depots. Iran, by contrast, has abandoned any pretense of military parity from the outset. The regime, Yagur contends, has accepted its military inferiority and is willing to absorb military losses in exchange for dominance in the arena where it has chosen to compete: the battle for perception a...

The Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran has issued a statement concerning what it describes as the United States’ acceptance of Iran’s conditions. The full text, rendered in polished formal English, is as follows: In its unjust, unlawful, and criminal war against the Iranian nation, the enemy has suffered an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat. Through the sacrifice of the martyrs, the guidance of the leadership, the courage and dedication of Iran’s fighters on the front lines, and above all the historic, steadfast, and resolute presence of the Iranian people from the very first days of the war, Iran has achieved a major victory and compelled the United States to accept its ten-point plan. According to the statement, the United States has, in principle, committed itself to guaranteeing non-aggression, maintaining Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz, accepting uranium enrichment, lifting all primary and secondary sanctions, terminating all resolu...

A dramatic overnight agreement between Washington and Tehran has produced a fragile two-week ceasefire in the six-week-old US-Israel war on Iran, brokered through Pakistani mediation, even as missile exchanges continued across the region hours after the announcement and a bitter dispute erupted over whether Lebanon is included in the deal. US President Donald Trump announced the agreement late Tuesday, describing it as a "total and complete victory" and declaring it "a big day for world peace." Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued its own triumphalist statement, claiming the enemy had suffered "an undeniable, historic and crushing defeat" and that Washington had been compelled to accept Tehran's 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations. Both sides, in other words, claimed to have won. The Ten-Point Framework At the heart of the agreement is Iran's 10-point ceasefire proposal, submitted to the US side through Pakistani intermed...

  Turkish authorities are investigating whether Tuesday’s attack outside the Israeli Consulate in Istanbul was carried out by Islamic State (ISIS) militants or by Iran-linked operatives, as competing lines of inquiry emerge following the incident. The attack took place around noon on Tuesday in the area outside the building that houses the Israeli Consulate. According to Turkish broadcaster NTV, three attackers were involved. One of them was killed after Turkish police opened fire, while the other two were arrested. Two Turkish police officers were also lightly injured during the incident, authorities said. The assault comes at a time of heightened security activity in Turkey. Before the attack, Turkish police had launched a new operation against an ISIS cell. In a separate development, Turkish security forces reportedly clashed for several hours with an ISIS-linked group in the Yalova district shortly before the Istanbul incident. Turkish sources who spoke to The Levant Files on c...

Iran's new supreme leader is said to be in severe condition and unable to participate in regime decision-making, according to a diplomatic memo cited by The Times. Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is reportedly unconscious and receiving medical treatment in the Shi'ite holy city of Qom, The Times reported Tuesday, citing a diplomatic memo said to be based on American and Israeli intelligence. The memo, republished by the Israeli The Jerusalem Post, allegedly describes Khamenei as being in severe condition and incapable of participating in regime decision-making. The claims have not been independently verified, but the document is said to have been shared with Gulf allies and represents the first official disclosure of Khamenei's whereabouts since the conflict began. Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the position of supreme leader following the death of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint Israeli and American strikes on February 28. Though Iranian officials have continued to...