The Levant Files

Beijing calls for diplomacy as Washington threatens to isolate Iran's economy and its trading partners, with China — Iran's top oil buyer — squarely in the crosshairs ahead of a planned Trump-Xi summit China has firmly rejected US President Donald Trump's threat to unleash what he called the "most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country" on Iran, warning that sanctions and pressure will not resolve the six-month-old crisis. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters at a regular briefing in Beijing that "sanctions and pressure will not help resolve the issue," urging "relevant parties to take responsible measures and seek to solve the issue through diplomatic and political means." Lin repeated the message at a follow-up briefing, saying such measures do not "fit the interest of any party." The pushback follows a Truth Social post Trump published Wednesday evening, in which he vowed "Economic ...

By Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias, Chief Editor of TLF, Research Fellow in the Nicosia University in the field of Turkish-Iranian relations/rivarly, Historian, Journalist A few years ago, during one of Fenerbahçe’s dreadful starts to the Turkish Süper Lig, the club’s legendary former footballer Rıdvan Dilmen captured the public imagination with an unforgettable remark: “Kırmızı kar yağar, Fenerbahçe küme düşmez”—red snow will fall before Fenerbahçe is relegated. Today, I offer a similar answer to those analysts and academics—particularly in Israel, Cyprus, Turkey and Greece—who confidently predict a direct military confrontation between Turkey and Israel: red snow will fall before these two countries enter an open war. This judgment remains unchanged even after the grave recent incident in Idlib, Syria. It is not based on sympathy, sentiment or wishful thinking. It rests on the balance of forces on the ground and on three interconnected approaches in international relations: neorealism, middle-...

Women are increasingly appearing in public without headscarves across Tehran and other Iranian cities, turning everyday streets, cafés and shopping districts into the frontline of a renewed confrontation between society and the Islamic Republic’s conservative establishment. Although compulsory veiling remains legally required, the morality patrols that once dominated public spaces have largely disappeared from routine street life. Residents report that women now walk unveiled—and sometimes in short sleeves—in Tehran, Isfahan, Rasht and even traditionally conservative Mashhad. The change, accelerated during Iran’s recent war, is widely viewed as an extension of the “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising triggered by Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody in 2022. RFE/RL reported⁠ in June that enforcement had visibly weakened across major cities, although restrictions continued inside government institutions. The growing defiance is now provoking increasingly alarming warnings. Major General Ba...

Iran is closely monitoring developments across neighboring countries, with particular attention focused on Azerbaijan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Syria, Iranian sources familiar with Tehran’s regional security assessments told The Levant Files. The sources said the Islamic Republic is increasingly concerned that its neighbors could provide the United States and Israel with military, logistical or intelligence opportunities that might be used against Iranian territory. Although Tehran continues to convey many of its concerns through diplomatic and security channels, the sources warned that further hostile activity originating from neighboring states could prompt a severe response. Iranian frustration appears particularly pronounced toward Azerbaijan, whose expanding relations and cooperation with Washington and Israel are being scrutinised closely in Tehran. “This is a situation that we constantly monitor,” one source said. “We have already delivered the necessary precautionar...

Iran may be close to securing a diplomatic breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian sources told The Levant Files, while warning that mounting American economic and military pressure could trigger a wider confrontation if Washington crosses Tehran’s strategic red lines. The sources portrayed the Islamic Republic as committed to diplomacy but prepared to respond forcefully to any attempt to isolate the country, undermine its regional alliances or threaten its interests. Their remarks also contained carefully calibrated messages for Turkey, Cyprus and Greece over their relations with the United States and Israel. One Iranian diplomatic source said Tehran’s preference for a negotiated settlement was demonstrated by its continuing contacts with Oman, which has traditionally maintained channels of communication with the Islamic Republic. “We are very close to a new diplomatic achievement concerning the Strait of Hormuz,” the source said. “As two friendly neighboring countries, we a...

Naama Lazimi has emerged as one of the most popular and combative figures on Israel’s fragmented left, presenting herself as a future education minister and insisting that her political camp must stop apologizing for seeking power. In an extensive profile published by Haaretz, journalist Moran Sharir describes the 40-year-old Democrats lawmaker as a rare politician capable of attracting both veteran Labor supporters and younger progressive activists. Her popularity was demonstrated in the Democrats’ recent primary, in which she reportedly secured more than 90% of the vote. Lazimi first gained national attention in 2022, when the then-little-known parliamentarian unexpectedly finished first in the Labor Party primary. Since then, she has built her public profile through forceful Knesset speeches, frequent appearances at anti-government demonstrations and campaigns on public housing, workers’ rights and social inequality. Her confrontational style has made her a target of Israel’s right,...

Nine senior judicial appointments suggest Tehran is extending its restructuring from the armed forces to the institutions responsible for internal security, prisons and political control. Iran has launched a sweeping reorganisation of its judiciary, extending a broader wartime overhaul of the Islamic Republic’s security establishment as the leadership struggles with the consequences of January’s bloody unrest and the continuing conflict with the United States. Judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei appointed nine senior officials on Wednesday, according to the Iranian outlet Nournews . The changes affect some of the judiciary’s most sensitive departments, including the prison system, the state inspectorate, internal intelligence and the administration of justice in Tehran province. Nasser Atabati was named head of the Tehran Province Justice Department, placing him at the centre of an institution that handles many of Iran’s most politically consequential cases. Heydar Asiabi was a...

The operation against Alparslan Kuytul’s Furkan movement came less than a week after the arrest of the Süleymancılar leadership, intensifying concerns that Ankara is moving against religious networks that refuse political alignment with the government. Turkey has launched a second major operation against an influential Islamic movement within a week, detaining Furkan movement leader Alparslan Kuytul, his wife and dozens of followers in a case involving allegations of organised crime, money laundering and fraud. The raids on Wednesday, 19 August, followed an extensive operation against the Süleymancılar community, one of Turkey’s largest and oldest religious networks. Although the authorities insist that both investigations concern financial crimes rather than religious or political activity, their timing has raised questions about whether the government is attempting to dismantle conservative groups that remain independent of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration. The Furkan ...

As missiles and blockades choke off the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, China is betting on ice-free Arctic summers to keep trade moving. The Chinese shipping firm Sea Legend has formally launched a route it calls the "Ice Silk Road," running from Ningbo on China's east coast through the Arctic along Russia's Northern Sea Route before heading south through the North Sea to Felixstowe in eastern England, according to Al Jazeera . The timing is no accident. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the key entry point to the Red Sea, has become largely unusable for many vessels as Iran-backed Houthi forces target shipping linked to Saudi Arabia, disrupting traffic to and from the Suez Canal. Meanwhile, the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began on 28 February, prompted Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz to most tankers — a strait that in peacetime carries roughly a fifth of the world's oil and LNG exports. The appeal is speed. A test voyage along the route last October...