The Levant Files

The Trump administration continues to send deeply contradictory signals toward Iran, with senior officials simultaneously hinting at both imminent military action and potential diplomatic breakthroughs — leaving analysts, allies, and Tehran itself struggling to determine Washington's true intentions. According to Hamshahri, Trump has dispatched one of the largest deployments of military hardware to the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War, including over 100 aircraft that entered Europe and the broader region within a single week. Reports also indicate that hundreds of American troops have been evacuated from Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, and from several installations in Bahrain — movements that military analysts interpret not as retreat, but as strategic repositioning in preparation for a potential confrontation. Trump himself addressed the situation Friday evening at the White House, telling reporters that he is "considering" a limited strike designed to pressure Ir...

Donald Trump's recent statements about his red lines toward Iran must be assessed in the context of his well-established personality traits and strategic objectives, argues veteran Iranian diplomat and former governor Nosratollah Tajik in a commentary published by Etemad. According to Tajik, Trump exploits language as a tool of warfare, is known for his contradictions, and deliberately employs verbose rhetoric to confuse adversaries. He uses social media and online platforms to set the agenda and impose his will — and his statements are often imprecise or subject to revision. This pattern, Tajik notes, is not unique to Iran but has been observed toward China, Ukraine, Gaza, and other international issues. Zero Enrichment: A Negotiating Position, Not a Final Outcome On the nuclear file, Washington's declared goal remains "zero percent enrichment." However, Tajik cautions against treating Trump's recent statements as a definitive outcome. "One must wait and see...

As the Gaza ceasefire holds and reconstruction talks gain momentum, Israel finds itself at a critical crossroads — its international standing severely damaged and its diplomatic options narrowing. A fundamental shift in foreign policy, analysts argue, may be the only path back to global legitimacy. According to the Atlantic Council and Amir Asmar , Israel's reputation has taken significant hits since the outbreak of fighting in Gaza following the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. International Criminal Court indictments, a cascade of UN resolutions, and shifting public opinion even within the United States — where 53 percent of adults now hold a negative view of Israel, up from 42 percent in 2022 — paint a picture of accelerating isolation. The scale of destruction in Gaza has been staggering. Palestinian health ministry figures, now accepted by the Israel Defense Forces themselves, place total casualties above 70,000 — more than three percent of Gaza's pre-war population. Some...

Four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the war has fundamentally reshaped Turkey's foreign policy posture and elevated its standing within the NATO alliance. What began as a crisis on Ankara's doorstep has, in retrospect, marked a turning point in how Turkey engages with both its Western allies and its regional neighbors. According to YetkinReport, one of the most significant early decisions Ankara made was to invoke the 1936 Montreux Convention just days after the invasion began, closing the Turkish Straits to warships and preventing Russia from reinforcing its Black Sea fleet with vessels stationed in the Mediterranean. The move proved strategically decisive, limiting Moscow's naval options in the early and arguably most critical phase of the conflict, and potentially sparing Ukraine from far heavier losses. Paradoxically, at the same time, 103 retired Turkish admirals who had publicly underscored the importance of the Mo...

Somaliland’s president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi, is expected to make his first official visit to Israel at the end of March, marking a further step in the rapid warming of ties between the self‑declared Horn of Africa state and Jerusalem. Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991 and is recognized internationally by only a handful of actors, is seeking to expand relations with Israel beyond diplomatic formalities into practical cooperation on technology, agriculture, and innovation — areas where Israeli expertise is widely regarded as world‑leading — The Jerusalem Post.    Officials say the planned visit builds on earlier, discreet contacts that culminated in Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland in December 2025. Somaliland leaders have also signaled a willingness to deepen ties with other major powers: a senior Somaliland minister told international media the territory would consider offering the United States access to mineral resources and milit...

Missiles, drones, asymmetric naval tactics, and network warfare have reshaped the strategic calculus against military action Recent security developments in the Persian Gulf have once again underscored that this strategically vital waterway remains one of the world's most sensitive geopolitical arenas. The sustained presence of United States forces in waters south of Iran, the positioning of American military bases in neighboring states, and ongoing political tensions have all brought Iran's deterrence capabilities and defense readiness into sharper focus. Writing for Etemad, Fatemeh Motairi, Senior Middle East Affairs Analys, stresses that any meaningful assessment of Iran's offensive and defensive capabilities must be grounded in rigorous military analysis and strategic calculation. Iran's defense doctrine rests on the principle of "active deterrence" — a concept emphasizing indigenous power development, raising the costs of any aggression, and maintaining a...

  Protests triggered by 40-day mourning ceremonies for thousands killed in January crackdown spread to campuses nationwide; Basij forces clash with demonstrators as parliament threatens minister; nuclear talks with Washington continue in parallel Anti-government protests swept through Iranian universities for a third straight day on Monday, February 23, as thousands of students across Tehran and other major cities took to campus grounds demanding regime change, mourning the thousands of compatriots killed in January's deadly crackdown, and staging confrontations with pro-government Basij paramilitary forces. The wave of unrest — the most sustained student uprising since the 1979 Islamic Revolution — has unfolded as Iran simultaneously faces mounting US military pressure and delicate nuclear negotiations in Geneva. Three Days of Defiance: A Chronology Saturday, February 21 — Day One: The Semester Begins in Protest Iran's universities had been closed since January 14 — ostensibly...

Washington weighs options from limited strikes to full-scale aerial campaign as U.S. forces mass in the region; Israeli military on high alert; Witkoff and Kushner head to Geneva for renewed nuclear talks. The Israeli military was placed on high alert on Monday as the possibility of a United States strike against Iran moved from speculation to operational planning. Senior Israeli defence officials said that a decision in Washington was expected within days, though the precise timing — and whether any attack will occur at all — remains uncertain. The concentration of American air and naval forces across the Middle East has been described by Israeli officials as potentially indicative of imminent preparations, while also serving as a lever of diplomatic pressure on Tehran. According to senior military officials who spoke with Haaretz, IDF commanders have been holding intensive coordination talks with their American counterparts in recent days, while simultaneously working with other regi...

Nine years after their iconic beach stroll, two of the world's most dominant political figures meet again amid global turbulence, Epstein fallout, and shared authoritarian critiques. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to host Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Israel this week, marking their first face-to-face summit since a now-famous beachside stroll along the Mediterranean coast in 2017. That tranquil seaside moment stood in sharp contrast to the storms that would soon follow — Trump's first presidency, a global pandemic, war in Europe, and cascading conflict across the Middle East. According to a detailed profile published by Haaretz, the two leaders share more than a warm bilateral relationship — they mirror each other in striking and sometimes troubling ways. Both have harnessed nationalism as a political weapon, faced corruption scandals and judicial confrontations, and watched their countries' founding political parties fade into near irrelevance. ...