The Levant Files

Posts

Iran Launches Fresh Drone Strikes On Kurdish Opposition Group In Kurdistan Region

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has launched a new wave of drone strikes against Kurdish opposition bases in the Kurdistan Region, intensifying a campaign of cross-border attacks that has persisted despite a fragile ceasefire between Tehran and Washington. The Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI) reported that three drones struck the Zewi Aspi base in Koya district at 23:10 local time on Wednesday, hours after two separate drones hit a residential camp housing the families of party members at Girde Chal near Erbil. The dual assault marked the second attack on PDKI bases in a single day, underscoring Tehran's relentless targeting of exiled Kurdish groups even as U.S. officials signal progress toward a broader diplomatic understanding with Iran. The latest strikes are part of a disturbing pattern that has unfolded since late February, when the United States and Israel launched a six-week military campaign against Iranian nuclear and military facilities. Accor...

Mali Plunges Deeper into Crisis as Coordinated Rebel Attacks Rattle Government Control

Mali is facing its most severe security escalation in years following a devastating wave of coordinated attacks by al-Qaeda-linked militants and Tuareg separatists that struck the capital, Bamako, and multiple regional cities on April 25, killing senior officials and exposing the military junta’s frail control across broad swathes of the country. The offensive, led by the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), targeted Bamako, Kati, Gao, Sevaré, Mopti, and the strategic northern city of Kidal. In a dramatic blow to the military leadership, Defence Minister Sadio Camara was killed in a suicide bombing during the assaults. JNIM and allied fighters subsequently claimed to have seized Kidal after Malian forces and their Russian-backed Africa Corps allies withdrew from several northern positions. The scale of the offensive revealed an unprecedented degree of coordination between jihadist and separatist factions that had previously operated in ...

From Tehran’s Perspective: Washington's High-Stakes Bid to Break Iran's Chokehold

When the U.S. Navy dispatched two guided-missile destroyers into the Strait of Hormuz on Monday as part of an operation dubbed "Project Freedom," the Trump administration signalled the start of a high-risk gambit to wrest back leverage over the world's most critical energy chokepoint — and, by extension, over Iran itself. The mission, announced by President Donald Trump on Sunday and swiftly backed by a CENTCOM force of more than 100 aircraft, unmanned platforms and 15,000 service members, aims to restore the free flow of commercial shipping through a waterway that once handled roughly 130 vessels per day. That figure has now collapsed to a trickle. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, only six ships transited the strait on Monday; by Tuesday afternoon just one had followed. Iran Responds with Force According to the Iranian newspaper Etemad, day one of the operation was anything but peaceful. The USS Truxtun and USS Mason — the two destroyers involved — naviga...

Iran Rejects 'Coup' Claims, Defends Leadership Succession

A senior Iranian official has offered a rare inside account of the Assembly of Experts session that elected Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hossein Khamenei as Iran's new Supreme Leader, dismissing Western and domestic allegations of a political coup and asserting that the process followed constitutional procedures with full democratic legitimacy. In an interview with Al-Mayadeen television, Mohsen Rezaei — a member of Iran's Expediency Council and former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) during the Iran-Iraq War — described in detail how the nine-day succession process unfolded, according to a report published by Iran's Etemad newspaper, citing the state-affiliated ISNA news agency. No Coup, Says Rezaei Rezaei was emphatic that the selection of the new Supreme Leader was an institutional act, not the product of any faction or individual. "The right to choose the leader in Iran does not belong to any individual, party, or group — it belongs to the Asse...

Italy to Deploy Turkish Bayraktar TB3 Drones Aboard Aircraft Carrier, Signalling Deeper Defence Shift

Italy’s Navy plans to procure and operate the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB3 unmanned aerial vehicle aboard its aircraft carrier Cavour, Vice Admiral Berutti Bergotto announced on March 25, 2026. The move marks a significant evolution in European naval warfare and highlights a growing, politically unacknowledged defence partnership between Italy and Turkey. Writing in Substack , Riccardo Gasco and Francesco Salesio Schiavi report that the acquisition will proceed through LBA Systems, a fifty-fifty joint venture between Italian aerospace giant Leonardo and Turkish drone manufacturer Baykar established in June 2025. Under the arrangement, Baykar’s drone portfolio—including the TB2, TB3, Akinci, and Kizilelma—will be manufactured at three Italian facilities, with Leonardo contributing European certification, mission systems, and radar technology. When the Italian Navy receives the TB3, it will be procuring a platform partly built domestically through a venture in which Leonardo holds equal st...

U.S. and Iran Near One-Page Memo to End War and Launch Nuclear Talks

The White House believes it is closing in on a one-page memorandum of understanding with Iran that would end the ongoing war and establish a framework for detailed nuclear negotiations, according to multiple U.S. officials and sources briefed on the matter. The 14-point memorandum of understanding is being negotiated between President Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators. Under the proposed terms, Iran would commit to a moratorium on uranium enrichment lasting at least 12 years, with some sources suggesting 15 years as a likely compromise between the U.S. demand of 20 years and Iran's initial offer of five. Tehran would also pledge never to seek a nuclear weapon or conduct weaponization-related activities, and would submit to an enhanced inspections regime including snap inspections by UN monitors. In exchange, the United States would agree to gradually lift sanctions and release billions of dollars in...

Pakistan's War On The Taliban: Can Kabul's Regime Be Changed?

Writing in the CACI Analyst (Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 31 March 2026), Karachi-based analyst and Wikistrat fellow Syed Fazl-e-Haider argues that Pakistan's military campaign against the Taliban carries a regime-change agenda — but one that cannot succeed without a precise set of conditions being met. The writer stresses that on February 26, Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab lil-Haq — "Righteous Fury" — striking major Afghan cities including Kabul with airstrikes. While Islamabad officially frames the campaign as pressure on the Taliban to halt cross-border militant attacks, Fazl-e-Haider writes that the operation doubles as a signal: regime change in Kabul is now on the table. Why Regime Change Has Become a Priority Since the Taliban's return to power in 2021, Afghanistan has effectively become a sanctuary for militant groups. Pakistan has suffered repeated attacks from Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), both operating fr...

Iran's State Media Outlines Tehran's 7 'Winning Cards' in Asymmetric Naval War with the US

NourNews, the outlet affiliated with Iran's Supreme National Security Council, frames asymmetric warfare as a rational strategic choice against American naval superiority Iran's state-linked NourNews Agency published a detailed strategic analysis outlining what it describes as Tehran's seven core advantages in an asymmetric naval conflict with the United States — an article that reads less like journalism and more like a doctrinal briefing from within the Islamic Republic's security establishment. The article was published amid heightened tensions at the Strait of Hormuz, where the IRGC has conducted seizures of commercial vessels, imposed transit pressure, and threatened mining operations. Independent analysts have confirmed that while US-led forces maintain conventional superiority, the IRGC's asymmetric naval capabilities — purpose-built for the Strait's confined environment — remain largely intact and operational. The Seven 'Winning Cards' — Iran...

July Threshold in Turkey–EU Tensions: What Erdoğan Said and What Comes Next

Ankara has signaled that relations between Turkey and the European Union have entered a new and more fragile phase, pairing diplomatic messaging with symbolic moves. The timing of Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz’s May 4 agreement in Yerevan with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on restoring the historic Ani Bridge coincided with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s renewed remarks on Turkey–EU ties, underscoring a coordinated political message. Speaking after a cabinet meeting, Erdoğan argued that Europe now needs Turkey more than Turkey needs Europe, and that this imbalance is likely to grow. He framed the relationship as being at a crossroads, urging European leaders to abandon what he described as political and historical prejudices and to pursue “sincere and equal” engagement. His remarks pointed to Ankara’s frustration with what it sees as a selective and transactional approach by Brussels. These statements came against the backdrop of messaging from EU leadership emphasizing ener...