The Levant Files

Trump seeks exit from Iran conflict as Netanyahu pushes to continue; Turkey's quiet diplomatic efforts already credited with neutralizing Kurdish militant dimension A deepening fracture between Washington and Tel Aviv over the course of the ongoing war in Iran is becoming impossible to conceal, with U.S. President Donald Trump actively seeking an off-ramp from the conflict while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists on pressing forward toward regime change. Amid the widening rift, Turkey's behind-the-scenes diplomatic maneuvering has already scored a notable success — and Ankara may be positioning itself as a key broker if negotiations materialize. Trump Begins Distancing Himself The first public sign of Trump's discomfort came during a rambling address on March 9, in which the president appeared to distribute responsibility for the decision to strike Iran among his closest advisers — a remarkable departure for a leader who has long cultivated the image of a dec...

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, initiated on 28 February 2026, has generated a profound ideological schism within Turkey's conservative intellectual establishment. While the Turkish state calibrates its official response with characteristic ambiguity, the country's opinion-makers on the right have fractured into sharply opposing camps whose disagreements reveal far more than differing assessments of a foreign war. At stake are foundational questions about Turkey's civilizational orientation, the permissibility of sectarian reasoning in strategic affairs, the legacy of political Islam's founding figures, and the very epistemology of trust in a Middle East defined by deception. Two articles, published within days of each other in prominent conservative outlets, crystallize this divide with unusual clarity. Writing in Milli Gazete on 4 March 2026, Prof. Dr. Abdullah Aydın mounts a passionate defence of solidarity with Iran, grounded in anti-Zionist geopoliti...

Analysts Decipher Pattern Behind President's Military Actions as Quest for Historical Legacy Amid the confusion surrounding President Donald Trump's simultaneous military operations in Iran, Venezuela, and the tariff war reshaping global trade, a clearer picture is emerging of what Foreign Policy columnist Michael Hirsh describes as the "Trump Doctrine"—a systematic effort to discard the post-war international order and replace it with one bearing his name. "The Trump vision is about discarding what he sees as a weak, failing world order and turning himself into the author of a new one that will always have his name on it," biographer Gwenda Blair told Foreign Policy, where Hirsh serves as a columnist. This interpretation sheds light on what has appeared to be chaotic decision-making but actually reflects a career-long pattern of "creative destruction" aimed at securing lasting recognition. The doctrine's roots trace back to a pivotal 1964 mome...

Analysts Warn of Pattern Where Small Conflicts Spiral Beyond Control, Trapping Democracies in Protracted Engagements The Trump administration's military campaign in Iran faces a dangerous trajectory that could transform the conflict into what Foreign Affairs analyst Robert D. Kaplan calls a "middle-sized war"—a category of engagement that has historically proven catastrophic for American foreign policy and democratic institutions. Writing for Foreign Affairs, Kaplan argues that middle-sized wars present a unique paradox for democracies. These conflicts are "big enough to cause immense destruction and bloodshed but small enough that they do not engage the full home front," Kaplan explains, citing military historian James Stokesbury's observation that democracies excel at small, professional operations or total war mobilization—but struggle decisively in the ambiguous middle ground. The pattern is disquietingly familiar. Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, and Iraq a...

Tehran Adopts Strategy of Economic Pressure Even as Neighbors Avoid Direct Military Confrontation The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new Supreme Leader has marked a significant shift in Tehran's approach to its escalating conflict with Israel and the United States, with the Islamic Republic now betting on a brutal economic war of attrition to destabilize the region, according to Haaretz Analysis. Khamenei Jr., 56, who assumed power following his father's death, has quickly consolidated authority with the backing of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While speculation initially focused on whether the new leader would pursue direct military escalation, the emerging strategy appears to prioritize economic pressure over widening the battlefield, Haaretz Analysis reports. The approach centers on exploiting Iran's ability to disrupt global energy markets. Oil prices surged to $115 per barrel on Monday after Iraq announced a 60 percent production cut, fol...

⚠️ U.S. Orders Emergency Exit from Southern Turkey The United States has issued a shocking emergency directive, ordering the immediate departure of all non-emergency personnel from its Consulate General in Adana, Türkiye, effective March 9.  This unprecedented move—marking the first time a "mandatory departure" has been ordered for U.S. staff in a NATO ally—comes after a ballistic missile launched from Iran was intercepted by NATO defenses over Turkish airspace, with debris falling in Hatay province.  The U.S. State Department confirmed that Americans in southeast Türkiye are "strongly encouraged to depart now" as the region faces extreme danger from armed conflict and terrorism.  The U.S. Consulate in Adana has suspended all operations, leaving citizens in the region with no direct consular support.  The crisis centers on Incirlik Air Base, a critical NATO installation just 10 kilometers from Adana, which intelligence sources confirm was the intended target of the ...

As U.S. and Israeli strikes enter their second week, a leading defense scholar argues the Trump administration is prosecuting a war without a coherent political strategy — and that history warns of the consequences. Since U.S. and Israeli forces launched joint strikes on Iran on February 28, the military campaign has been sweeping in its reach. According to Trump, speaking to Republican lawmakers, the operation has targeted over 5,000 locations, neutralized much of Iran's missile arsenal, and eliminated drone production sites. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening salvo, with Iran subsequently naming his hardline son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as his successor. Yet for all the tactical momentum, a fundamental question hangs unanswered: what does Washington actually want from this war? Writing in Foreign Affairs on March 10, Colin H. Kahl — Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University and former U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for ...

In a significant escalation of the Middle East conflict, Saudi Arabia has formally invoked its Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with Pakistan following a series of Iranian missile and drone attacks on Saudi territory.  The pact, signed in September 2025, commits both nations to treat any aggression against one as an attack on both, mirroring NATO’s Article 5. The invocation came after Iran targeted key Saudi infrastructure, including the Ras Tanura oil refinery and Prince Sultan Air Base, which hosts thousands of U.S. troops.  Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman confirmed the move during a high-level meeting with Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, on March 7.  “We discussed Iranian attacks on the Kingdom and the measures needed to halt them within the framework of our Joint Strategic Defense Agreement,” Prince Khalid stated on social media. The meeting marked the first operational test of the pact, which includes joint deterrence, intell...

We’re live! https://substack.com/@thelevantfiles This is a new space for sharp reporting, clear-eyed analysis, and deeper context on the Levant and the forces shaping the region. At a time when headlines move fast and nuance gets lost, The Levant Files is here to slow things down, ask better questions, and follow the story beyond the news cycle. Expect writing that cuts through noise and cliché. Expect close attention to politics, power, history, media, and the realities on the ground. Expect a publication committed to insight over spectacle. The Levant Files is for readers who want more than fragments and hot takes. It is for those looking for substance, perspective, and a more serious engagement with one of the most important and misunderstood regions in the world. Whether you are a long-time observer of the region or just beginning to follow its complexities, this is your invitation to join from the start. Subscribe, follow, and share:   https://substack.com/@thelevantfiles...