The Levant Files

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Jerusalem Weighs Fragile Calm Against Tehran’s Threats as Lebanon Front Burns On

As a tense and conditional pause settles over the Israel-Iran front, the Israeli press this week framed the moment less as relief than as a strategic dilemma: a ceasefire Jerusalem neither fully trusts nor formally acknowledges, shadowed by an unresolved war in Lebanon and a renewed reminder that Yemen remains in play. The dominant Israeli narrative centers on restraint imposed from Washington. An Israeli official bemoaned the US demand that Jerusalem show restraint against Iran, noting that Trump himself had not held back — a framing that captures a widely felt frustration in Israeli coverage. Reporting indicated that Israel was preparing a significant strike on Tehran on Monday when Trump phoned Netanyahu and told him to hold off, an intervention that appeared to work . Netanyahu said Israel had halted attacks on Iran but stopped short of acknowledging a ceasefire — a deliberate ambiguity Israeli outlets read as preserving freedom of action. That ambiguity is sharpened by Israel...

Strikes, Brinkmanship, and a Fragile Diplomatic Lifeline: The US–Iran Axis at the Edge

The past twelve hours have delivered one of the most dangerous escalatory cycles since the 2026 Iran war began in February. US Central Command confirmed that its forces launched a second consecutive night of “self-defense” strikes against multiple targets inside Iran on the evening of June 10 , with Iranian state media reporting explosions around the Bandar Abbas airport and air base, and a strike on the southern port city of Sirik, home to a naval base. Some Iranian outlets claimed US vessels in the Strait of Hormuz came under missile attack, though those reports remain unverified. This followed a sharp verbal escalation from Washington. President Trump told reporters at the White House that the US would be “attacking them, attacking them very hard,” after earlier declaring Iran’s military “completely defeated” and warning Tehran would “pay the price” for stalling negotiations. Trump also revealed that US forces had been covertly seizing Iranian oil — “millions of barrels every n...

Tehran's Perspective: Trump and Netanyahu Diverge on War’s End as Political Survival Drives Rift

According to an analysis published by Iran’s Mehr News Agency on June 10, citing a recent Axios report, a widening gap has emerged between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over how and when to end the conflict in West Asia—a divergence the Iranian outlet frames as rooted in each leader’s domestic political needs rather than strategic disagreement. The core argument advanced by Mehr is that the two leaders share overarching goals but face opposite political incentives. Both seek to contain Iran’s regional influence and have long emphasized close security cooperation. Yet according to the analysis, Netanyahu requires the continuation of war to sustain his political position, while Trump needs it to end in order to preserve his. The Axios report cited by Mehr described intensive contacts between Washington and Tel Aviv following reciprocal missile strikes between Iran and Israel. Trump was reportedly concerned that the region was sliding toward an al...

Kuwait Caught in the Crossfire: A Small State’s Precarious Balancing Act in the US-Israel–Iran War

As the US-Israel war on Iran approaches its 100th day, few states illustrate the conflict’s regional spillover more sharply than Kuwait. Geographically wedged between Iraq and Saudi Arabia and hosting some of the largest concentrations of US military personnel in the Gulf, the small emirate has become an unwilling frontline in a war it neither sought nor declared. Since Iran launched retaliatory strikes across the Gulf on February 28, following the US-Israeli opening salvo that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Kuwait has absorbed repeated barrages. Iranian drones struck Kuwait International Airport and the Ali Al Salem Air Base, which houses Italian forces, while another drone hit the US garrison at Camp Buehring in the country’s northeast. A separate missile attack targeted a makeshift operations center near the civilian port of Shuaiba, killing six US soldiers and wounding dozens. The human toll for Kuwait itself has been significant. In the strikes against the country, four sol...

Iraq’s Precarious Crossroads: A New Government, a Crippled Economy, and a War on Its Doorstep

Iraq enters mid-2026 in one of its most vulnerable positions since the defeat of the Islamic State, caught between a fragile new government, a collapsing revenue base, and a regional war that has turned its territory into a battleground. On 14 May, six months after the November 2025 elections, parliament approved a still-incomplete government led by Ali al-Zaidi, a young billionaire businessman with no political or government experience who emerged as an unconventional compromise candidate after months of deadlock within Iraq’s Shiite ruling coalition, the Coordination Framework. His appointment, the International Crisis Group argues, reflects less a coherent strategy than the deepening fragmentation of Iraq’s political class. Zaidi inherits a state under siege. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran that began on 28 February has turned Iraq into a battleground where the government can neither protect its sovereignty nor enforce the state’s monopoly on the use of force. All three of the ma...

U.S. and Iran Trade Fire After Apache Downing as Gulf Edges Back Toward War

The fragile truce holding the 2026 Iran war in check buckled again overnight as the United States and Iran exchanged direct fire following the downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting fears of a return to full-scale conflict just as both sides claimed to be nearing a peace deal. The crisis began when an AH-64 Apache went down Monday evening off the coast of Oman while patrolling regional waters. Both pilots were rescued unharmed in what officials described as the first sea-drone rescue ever carried out by the U.S. military. President Donald Trump subsequently declared that the Iranians had shot down the helicopter while it patrolled over the Strait of Hormuz , vowing that Washington “must” respond. Senators briefed by CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper were left with the impression that an Iranian drone struck the Apache, with at least one lawmaker calling it intentional. Tehran declined to claim the attack. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warne...

From Casablanca to Istanbul: A Record Ten Teams from the Greater Levant Storm the 2026 World Cup

Never before has the Arab world, North Africa, and the wider region sent so many flags to football's biggest stage As the twenty-third FIFA World Cup prepares to kick off across the United States, Mexico and Canada from June 11 to July 19, one storyline towers above the rest for fans from Rabat to Tehran: the greater region stretching from Morocco and Egypt across the Levant to Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Iran has never been so powerfully represented. A record ten national teams from this vast cultural and geographic belt have booked their places at the first 48-team finals, a tally without precedent in the tournament's 96-year history. The expansion to 48 teams has opened the door, but it is the depth of talent and decades of institutional investment that have walked through it. From North Africa's perennial heavyweights to first-time debutants, here are the ten teams carrying the hopes of millions. North Africa's Established Powers Morocco arrive as the region's sta...

Israel Orders Evacuation of Tyre, Putting One of the World's Oldest Cities in the Line of Fire

Ancient Phoenician port and UNESCO World Heritage Site faces fresh bombardment as ceasefire frays Israel's military issued an evacuation order on Tuesday for the southern Lebanese city of Tyre, warning residents to flee north of the Zahrani River ahead of possible strikes. For the first time, the order extended to the city's Christian Quarter, which earlier warnings had spared. Military spokesperson Avichay Adraee claimed Hezbollah was operating in the quarter and cautioned that any building used by the group could be targeted. The order arrives as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, renewed only last week, frays badly. A strike on Tyre on Monday killed five people and wounded eight, four of the dead Red Cross paramedics, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry. The bombardment has also battered the city's celebrated antiquities: Ali Badawi, the culture ministry's regional director for archaeological sites in south Lebanon, said recent shelling had ...

Kosovo's Snap Election Again Fails to Break Political Deadlock

Third vote in 18 months leaves young Balkan nation without a clear government Kosovo's latest snap election has failed to deliver the political breakthrough the country desperately needs, deepening a crisis that observers warn is endangering the stability of Europe's youngest nation. In the June 7 vote — the third parliamentary election in just 18 months — Prime Minister Albin Kurti's centre-left Vetevendosje party won the most votes but again fell short of a governing majority. Near-complete results put the party at roughly 43 percent, down sharply from the 51 percent it secured in December, pointing to difficult coalition talks ahead. The opposition Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) took about 21 and 17 percent respectively. The repeated trips to the polls stem from a paralysing institutional impasse. A deeply divided parliament failed to elect a new president in April, worsening a crisis triggered by inconclusive elections in February...