The Levant Files

  A new MetroPoll survey suggests that a strong majority of the Turkish public opposes any direct involvement in the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran, while still viewing NATO as an important pillar of Turkey’s security. The findings offer fresh insight into how President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s foreign policy is being received at home. According to Yetkin Report and the results from MetroPoll’s March 2026 “Pulse of Turkey” survey, shared by senior pollster Özer Sencar,  68.1% of respondents said Turkey should remain neutral in the conflict. Another  22.6% said Ankara should side with Iran, while only  2.1% supported aligning with the US and Israel. The remaining respondents were undecided. The numbers point to a clear public preference: Turkey should avoid being drawn into war. At the same time, another result in the same survey reveals a more complex picture of public opinion. When asked about NATO’s role in Turkey’s security,  61.0% described it ...

In a dramatic shift from their traditionally cautious diplomacy, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, alongside key regional allies, have adopted a unified and defiant posture against Iran, rejecting any notion of an "easy off-ramp" to the ongoing war. Recent high-level summits and joint statements reveal a region no longer willing to be a passive battleground, demanding the permanent degradation of Iran's military capabilities as a condition for peace.  The Riyadh Summit: A Coalition Forged in Crisis The pivotal moment came on March 18-19, when Saudi Arabia hosted a consultative ministerial meeting in Riyadh.  Foreign ministers from all six GCC states—Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman—joined counterparts from Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Syria, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan.  The meeting, timed deliberately as Iranian missiles struck nearby, was a powerful display of unity. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan confirmed the attack was in...

Tehran and Gulf cities were rocked by intense strikes overnight into March 31, 2026, as the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran entered a critical phase.  Explosions were reported across Tehran, including at the University of Science and Technology, while Jerusalem and Tel Aviv faced retaliatory Iranian missile barrages, all reportedly intercepted. The UAE, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia also engaged Iranian drones and missiles, with 12 US troops wounded in an attack on Prince Sultan Airbase.  A Kuwaiti oil tanker was struck in Dubai waters, igniting a fire and threatening a major environmental disaster, while civilian casualties mounted, including an Indian worker killed in Kuwait and a man in Tel Aviv. Oil prices surged amid fears of prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed since the war began on February 28. Rubio: "The Strait of Hormuz Will Be Open One Way or Another" In a pivotal exclusive interview with Al Jazeera on March 30, US ...

Israel’s Knesset passed a sweeping death penalty law on Monday night, mandating execution by hanging for Palestinians from the occupied West Bank convicted of deadly terrorist attacks against Israelis.  The vote, 62 in favor and 48 opposed, marks a seismic shift in Israeli criminal policy and has triggered fierce domestic debate and widespread international backlash.  The legislation, officially titled the Penal Bill (Amendment ― Death Penalty for Terrorists), makes death the default sentence in military courts for Palestinians found guilty of intentional killings “with the intent of rejecting the existence of the State of Israel.” Judges may only impose life imprisonment under “special circumstances,” a reversal of current practice.  Crucially, the law eliminates the right to pardon or clemency and does not require a unanimous judicial decision, allowing a simple majority to impose execution. A Law of Two Systems: Targeting Palestinians Legal experts and human rights gro...

As reported by Middle East Eye, Israel's Knesset is expected to vote on Monday on the final readings of a controversial bill that would introduce the death penalty for Palestinian prisoners convicted of offences classified as "terrorism." The legislation, sponsored by the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, has provoked strong condemnation from European governments, UN experts and human rights organisations alike. The foreign ministers of Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement on Sunday calling on Israel to abandon the vote, warning that the bill carries a discriminatory character and risks undermining Israel's stated commitment to democratic norms. According to the Israeli daily Haaretz, the country's own military establishment has raised concerns that the law could breach international legal standards and expose senior commanders to potential arrest warrants abroad. Human rights groups — including Adalah, HaMoked, the Public Committee ...

In a terrifying overnight assault that has sent shockwaves across the country, the predominantly Christian town of Suqaylabiyah in Hama province was violently attacked by scores of men from the nearby Sunni town of Qalaat al-Madiq, leaving homes, shops, and cars riddled with bullets and set ablaze.  The incident, which began as a dispute between two men on Friday night, March 27, quickly escalated into a full-scale sectarian rampage, marking the latest and most severe attack on Syria's beleaguered Christian minority since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024.  Residents described a night of "terror, fear, and panic." Liyan Dweir, a local shop owner, recounted how his clothes shop was "riddled with bullets" and his children were "terrified during the hours-long assault." Another resident, Nafeh al-Nader, reported that young men broke into his home, kicked a diesel heater, and set a room on fire. Bullet holes were found near a crucifix on a wall...

The ongoing war in the Middle East has left Greece in a precarious position, with Athens grappling with mounting concerns over the conflict's impact on both the national economy and its vital commercial shipping fleet. The Greek government is closely monitoring the economic repercussions of the war. Barely a decade after its devastating financial and socioeconomic collapse, Greece now faces the prospect of renewed economic turbulence driven by regional instability. Rising energy costs, disrupted trade routes, and broader market uncertainty threaten to undermine the fragile recovery that Athens has painstakingly built over the past several years. At the same time, Greece — which controls the world's largest commercial fleet — is facing severe restrictions and growing operational challenges in the strategic straits of the Middle East. According to a well-informed diplomatic source in Athens, the situation could deteriorate significantly if the Ansar Allah movement of Yemen decide...

Turkey has stepped up its diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the ongoing war in the Middle East, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan maintaining constant communication with all parties involved in the conflict. Ankara's top diplomat has been stressing the need for a peaceful resolution to prevail, as the multifront war continues to inflict devastation across the region. A well-informed source in Ankara, underlining these points, shed light on Turkey's main concern: while Washington has signalled a willingness to explore avenues toward de-escalation, Tel Aviv is in no hurry to halt hostilities. "It is obvious that they aim to achieve significant territorial gains in Lebanon. At the same time, their endgame in Iran remains regime change," the source stressed. According to the source, under these circumstances, the prospects for ending the conflict largely depend on the faction within Washington that opposes the continuation of the war. "There is also an interestin...

Welcome to the latest episode of the Deep Dive Podcast Service, an exclusive production of The Levant Files. In this episode, we move beyond the headlines to provide a granular, 30-day post-mortem of the conflict that began on February 28, 2026. We begin with the staggering "military mathematics" of modern attrition. As the U.S. and Israel engage in a multi-front campaign against Iran, the cost of defense has become unsustainable. Our analysts unpack how the coalition is "throwing Rolexes at mosquitoes"—expending $15 million interceptor missiles to down $20,000 drones. With over 3,500 advanced munitions fired in just one month, the global American defense umbrella is being stretched to a dangerous thinness, forcing the Pentagon to divert resources from Ukraine and the Pacific. The ripples of this conflict are no longer contained within the Levant. We examine the "dual strangulation" of global trade, as Iran exerts de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz...

As the United States wages war across the Middle East and bends the rules-based international order to its will, Tokyo faces an uncomfortable reckoning — how to preserve its security alliance with Washington without surrendering its identity as a champion of international law. The image was stark enough to cause visible discomfort in Tokyo's policy circles: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, standing beside U.S. President Donald Trump at a Washington dinner reception on 19 March, offering fulsome praise to a leader who has upended the international order — not once, but repeatedly, and now most dramatically through the ongoing American military campaign against Iran and its regional proxies, a conflict that has reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East in a matter of weeks. In a candid editorial published this week by Koji Sonoda, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of the Political News Section at Japan's leading daily Asahi Shimbun, the discomfort was named plainly: Japan's n...

Beijing is using the global distraction of the US-Iran-Israel war to entrench its position in the South China Sea — deploying propaganda, coast guard vessels and fishing fleets as instruments of strategic pressure. As the guns of a war spanning Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq command the attention of governments and newsrooms worldwide, a quieter but no less consequential contest is unfolding thousands of miles to the east. China is methodically consolidating its grip over the South China Sea — and it is doing so with a sophistication that blends legal argumentation, state media messaging, and the strategic deployment of uniformed coast guard officers alongside ordinary fishermen. The timing is not accidental. Beijing has long understood that geopolitical windows open when great powers are distracted elsewhere. The ongoing US-led military confrontation in the Middle East has absorbed American diplomatic bandwidth, naval assets, and public attention at a moment when Washington can least afford ...

Russian media outlet Izvestia has published a detailed assessment claiming that the United States, Israel, and their coalition partners are facing a mounting shortage of interceptor missiles as Iran continues its sustained ballistic missile and drone campaign across the Middle East. The report, authored by defence analyst Dmitry Kornev and published on 29 March 2026, argues that the pace of Iranian strikes combined with the high rate of interception attempts is rapidly depleting coalition air defence stockpiles. A Multi-Layered Defence Under Pressure According to the Izvestia report, Israel's layered missile defence architecture — encompassing the Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems for exo-atmospheric interception, David's Sling for mid-layer threats, and Iron Dome for short-range rockets — has proven unable to achieve full coverage against Iran's evolving strike package. The Russian outlet attributes Iranian breakthroughs in part to a saturation tactic combining ballistic missile...

The US-Israeli military campaign against Iran entered its thirtieth day on Sunday amid a dramatic convergence of escalatory battlefield developments and intensified regional diplomacy, as foreign ministers from Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia convened in Islamabad in a bid to broker a ceasefire — while Washington simultaneously prepared contingency plans for ground operations inside Iranian territory. Tehran Under Fresh Bombardment The morning opened with multiple waves of Israeli airstrikes on the Iranian capital. The Israel Defense Forces announced the completion of "another wave" of strikes targeting temporary Iranian command centres, ballistic missile production and storage facilities, aerial defence systems, and weapons manufacturing sites across Tehran. The IDF noted that Iran had relocated some command infrastructure to mobile units following earlier strikes, several of which were also destroyed. Iranian state media reported loud explosions heard across wester...

An Israeli airstrike on Saturday struck a vehicle travelling in southern Lebanon, killing at least three people, including two journalists working for Lebanese media outlets Al Mayadeen and Al-Manar. The incident has drawn sharp condemnation from Lebanese authorities and media organisations, while the Israeli military asserted that at least one of those killed was an active member of Hezbollah’s intelligence apparatus. The Incident Al Mayadeen Media Network announced the death of its South Lebanon correspondent, Fatima Ftouni, along with her brother Mohammad Ftouni, following the strike. Al-Manar TV correspondent Ali Hassan Shaib — widely known among colleagues as Hajj Ali Shoeib — was also killed in the same attack. According to Al Mayadeen’s correspondent Jamal Ghourabi, the vehicle was visibly marked as a press car and was struck by four precision missiles. He further reported that paramedics who subsequently arrived at the scene were also targeted, resulting in the death of one par...

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi (Ansar Allah) movement confirmed on Saturday that it had carried out its first military operation against Israel since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran exactly one month ago, firing a barrage of ballistic missiles at what it described as "sensitive Israeli military sites in southern occupied Palestine." The attack, confirmed by both the Houthis and the Israeli military, signals a potentially significant widening of a conflict that has already drawn in multiple regional actors. In an official statement published by the Houthi-controlled Sana'a News Agency (SABA), the Yemeni Armed Forces framed the strike as a direct fulfilment of prior commitments to intervene militarily in support of Iran and allied "resistance fronts" in Lebanon, Iraq, and Palestine. "This operation coincided with the heroic operations carried out by our mujahideen brothers in Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon," the statement read, adding that operati...

Ankara, backed by Islamabad and Cairo, pushes for diplomacy as Turkish sources warn of a fast-closing window before the conflict spirals out of control Turkey is quietly spearheading a diplomatic initiative — supported by Pakistan and Egypt — aimed at building negotiation channels to halt the ongoing American-Israeli military campaign against Iran, well-informed Turkish sources told The Levant Files. But Ankara is racing against time, and those same sources are blunt about the odds: the window for a successful diplomatic outcome is narrow and shrinking fast. Senior Turkish officials believe that if the current trajectory is not interrupted by meaningful diplomacy, Israel will drag the entire region into a large-scale, uncontrollable war — one with consequences that no actor in the Middle East will be able to contain or predict. Riyadh and Jerusalem: The Pro-War Axis The latest intelligence assessments circulating in Ankara reveal a troubling dynamic that is complicating all mediation e...

Please note that the Persian service of TLf is currently in a beta phase. We have launched this initiative with the support of our followers, volunteers, and AI technology. Please keep in mind that during this first phase, the Persian text may contain slight phrasing or translation errors. We aim to launch a fully professional Persian service in the near future. لطفاً توجه داشته باشید که بخش فارسی TLf در حال حاضر در مرحله بتا قرار دارد. ما این ابتکار را با همراهی دنبال‌کنندگان، داوطلبان و با کمک فناوری هوش مصنوعی راه‌اندازی کرده‌ایم. لطفاً در نظر داشته باشید که در این مرحله نخست، متن فارسی ممکن است حاوی برخی ناهماهنگی‌ها در نگارش یا خطاهای جزئی در ترجمه باشد. هدف ما این است که در آینده نزدیک، یک بخش فارسی کاملاً حرفه‌ای راه‌اندازی کنیم. نوشته: دکتر نیکولائوس استلگیاس پرسشی که ذهن هر تحلیلگر جدی درباره جنگ جاری آمریکا و اسرائیل علیه ایران را به خود مشغول کرده، دیگر این نیست که آیا این درگیری تشدید خواهد شد — چون پیشاپیش و به شکلی چشمگیر تشدید شده است — بلکه این است که آیا از نهایی‌ترین ...