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TLF SPECIAL: Turkey Races Against Time To Broker Iran Deal — But Israel And Riyadh Want The War To Run


Ankara, backed by Islamabad and Cairo, pushes for diplomacy as Turkish sources warn of a fast-closing window before the conflict spirals out of control


Turkey is quietly spearheading a diplomatic initiative — supported by Pakistan and Egypt — aimed at building negotiation channels to halt the ongoing American-Israeli military campaign against Iran, well-informed Turkish sources told The Levant Files. But Ankara is racing against time, and those same sources are blunt about the odds: the window for a successful diplomatic outcome is narrow and shrinking fast.

Senior Turkish officials believe that if the current trajectory is not interrupted by meaningful diplomacy, Israel will drag the entire region into a large-scale, uncontrollable war — one with consequences that no actor in the Middle East will be able to contain or predict.

Riyadh and Jerusalem: The Pro-War Axis

The latest intelligence assessments circulating in Ankara reveal a troubling dynamic that is complicating all mediation efforts. According to the Turkish sources, both Israel and Saudi Arabia are actively opposing any premature halt to hostilities. The shared logic in Jerusalem and Riyadh is coldly strategic: this is, in their view, a once-in-a-generation opportunity to deal a crippling, potentially existential blow to the Islamic Republic of Iran and to the broader network of Iranian-backed proxies that has reshaped the Middle East over the past four decades.

For Ankara, this framing is precisely what makes the situation so dangerous. Turkey fears that what Israel and Saudi Arabia see as a golden opportunity, the rest of the region may come to experience as an unmitigated catastrophe.

Cracks in Washington: Ankara Watches Closely

In a parallel and equally significant diplomatic thread, Turkish officials are monitoring with considerable attention what they describe as visible fractures within the Donald Trump administration over the direction and costs of the escalation.

From the Vice President's office to the upper echelons of the Pentagon, and across key factions within the Republican Party, there are influential personalities and power centers that do not share the maximalist, pro-war posture of those pushing for the conflict's continuation. These figures, according to Turkish diplomatic sources, do not necessarily see value in allowing the regional escalation to deepen further — whether for strategic, economic, or political reasons.

Ankara has drawn a clear operational conclusion from this intelligence: it is essential to keep diplomatic channels open with the anti-escalation camp inside Washington's ruling establishment. Turkish diplomats view this internal American divide not as a weakness to exploit, but as a potential lifeline — a lever that, if engaged carefully, could help shift the balance toward restraint before events on the ground make restraint impossible.

A Delicate Architecture

The Turkish-led initiative, with Egypt and Pakistan as co-architects, reflects Ankara's longstanding effort to position itself as an indispensable regional broker — a Muslim-majority NATO member with lines open to Tehran, Washington, and the Arab world simultaneously. Whether this architecture can hold under the weight of Israeli military momentum and Saudi political will is the central question diplomats in Ankara are now asking themselves, with no comfortable answer in sight.

Illustration: Perplexity

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