As the Middle East grapples with unprecedented developments, a prominent analyst has issued a stark warning that Turkey is dangerously unprepared for a brewing regional "hurricane." The critique suggests that the country's leadership remains fixated on internal political consolidation, employing outdated methods and empty slogans while ignoring the grave external threats escalating at its very doorstep. This inward focus, it is argued, leaves the nation exposed at a time of immense geopolitical change.
Writing for the online publication Serbestiyet, political analyst İlhami Işık contends that the geopolitical landscape is shifting at a breakneck pace. In his analysis, Işık states that the long-standing Turkish political mantra of "strengthening the domestic front" has become a hollow phrase, failing to translate into meaningful action at a time when national unity is most critical.
Işık points explicitly to Iran as a potential epicenter of instability. "We are right next to the fire," he writes, describing Iran as a "weak link" and a "wounded state" that has suffered severe blows to its governing capacity. He warns that a cornered and fragmented Iran could act unpredictably, potentially unleashing long-suppressed ethnic and sectarian "fault lines" that would destabilize the entire region. Such an event, he argues, would present a challenge far beyond Turkey's current preparedness.
The core of the problem, according to Işık, is a "mental rigidity" in Ankara. He criticizes the government for allegedly focusing its entire strategy on staying in power and winning future elections—a normal political goal that becomes a "grave error" during what he calls "abnormal times." This intense political polarization, combined with a struggling economy and weakening institutional independence, leaves the country vulnerable to significant challenges. Instead of proactive policy, the nation is prone to reactionary reflexes that could cause irreparable damage.
Furthermore, the analyst cautions against oversimplified solutions to complex security threats. "If you think you can weather this storm, which has the potential to turn into a hurricane, just by making the PKK lay down its arms, you are gravely mistaken," Işık asserts. While acknowledging that ending the decades-long conflict peacefully is highly valuable, he stresses that the rapidly evolving international and regional equation demands a much broader and more urgent strategic response.
Ultimately, Işık's analysis is a call for a fundamental shift in Turkey's strategic thinking. He argues that authentic leadership is demonstrated not in reacting to crises but in preparing for them by building a resilient and cohesive society. Without a genuine effort to foster social consensus, restore institutional trust, and move beyond empty rhetoric, Turkey risks being consumed by the very dangers it professes to recognize.
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