The White House is forcefully defending its claim that U.S. and Israeli airstrikes have "completely and annihilated" Iran's nuclear program, a narrative President Donald Trump is pushing aggressively. However, a chorus of conflicting reports from U.S. intelligence, international atomic inspectors, and media analyses cast a significant shadow over the administration's victory lap, suggesting the program may only be temporarily disabled, not destroyed.
The growing uncertainty was highlighted in an analysis by the French publication Courrier International. The report highlights a significant disparity between President Trump's triumphant declarations following the June 21 strikes and the more cautious assessments from intelligence agencies. Trump, on his Truth Social network, has decried any questioning of his version of events as "fake news" from outlets like CNN and The New York Times.
Central to the skepticism is a startling announcement from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Director Rafael Grossi stated on June 26 that while centrifuges at the underground Fordo enrichment site are "no longer operational," it would be "excessive" to say the entire program was annihilated. More alarmingly, the IAEA reported that it cannot account for Iran's 400-kilogram stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% purity—a level close to weapons-grade. The Guardian noted the IAEA does not know if the material was moved or destroyed. Still, that evidence suggests "they have moved a large part of it," fueling speculation that Iran's most valuable nuclear material may have survived the bombing.
This uncertainty has fueled a stark partisan divide in Washington. Following a classified briefing on Thursday for senators with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Republicans emerged convinced mainly of the mission's total success. Democrats, however, expressed deep reservations. "There is no doubt that the program was damaged," stated Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut. "But the claims that we have annihilated their program don't seem to hold up."
The administration is pushing back hard. Secretary Hegseth dismissed a U.S. intelligence report—which concluded the strikes only delayed Iran's program by "a few months"—as "preliminary" and deliberately leaked to "muddy the waters." Even Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, while confirming that the country's nuclear infrastructure suffered "significant and serious damage," has not corroborated the American claim of destruction. Analysts at Foreign Affairs caution that even if the physical infrastructure is gone, the real prize is the enriched uranium. "If a part of this stock remains intact," the magazine warns, "Iran will only have to extract it… The country has both shovels and bulldozers." The question of what happened to the missing uranium now hangs over the administration's claims of a historic strategic victory.
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