The power vacuum left by a dramatically weakened Iran has created fierce competition for influence, according to a recent analysis in the French publication Courrier International. This report highlights that the petromonarchies of the Gulf, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, believe they offer a more viable geopolitical project for regional leadership, one that does not rely solely on military might.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, buoyed by the "near-total destruction" of Tehran's nuclear capabilities as lauded by The Jerusalem Post, has made his strategy clear. "I think our strength is the key to everything," he recently stated on Israel's Channel 13, asserting it is "what impresses" Arab leaders. He further expressed confidence in securing peace with Saudi Arabia without conceding to a Palestinian state, a long-standing demand from Riyadh. This confidence is bolstered by predictions from Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, of "big announcements" regarding more nations joining the Abraham Accords.
However, this "unbridled power," as The Daily Telegraph describes it, is inspiring more fear than confidence among its potential partners. These Arab monarchies, focused on ambitious economic diversification projects, increasingly view Israel's hardline approach as a "destabilizing element." As Lebanese analyst Ghassan Salamé noted in L'Orient-Le Jour, while Israel may achieve military domination for years to come, "this does not make it an Israeli era." He argues that Israel has so far failed to offer the region anything beyond raw power, lacking the soft power or political vision needed for authentic leadership.
The United Arab Emirates, in particular, is moving to capitalize on this sentiment. Prominent Emirati academic Abdulkhaleq Abdullah told Newsweek that while the end of Iranian imperialism is welcome, "the rise of Israeli imperialism is not good for regional stability either." According to an analysis in 972+ Magazine, Abu Dhabi is strategically working to "present itself to the West as a stable substitute for an Israel that is behaving more and more like a rogue state." Emirati analyst Mohammed Baharoon reinforced this, warning that Israel is becoming the "main source of instability" in a region that has no appetite for brute force but instead needs "reliable actors capable of building economic partnerships"—a clear self-promotion for the UAE's vision for the future.
Photo: Cedid Atlas (Middle East) 1803, Wikimedia Commons