Netanyahu Claims' Historic Victory' Over Iran, But Faces Uncertain Future

Life in Israel has quickly returned to a semblance of normality following a contentious ceasefire with Iran. Schools have reopened, and flights have resumed. Still, beneath the surface, the outcome of the "Rising Lion" military operation has left Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a precarious position despite his claims of a "historic victory." While the conflict temporarily boosted his domestic standing, the US-imposed truce has starkly illuminated his international isolation and the fragile political ground he stands on at home.

The ceasefire concludes a "Twelve-Day War" that had clear objectives: the neutralization of Iran's nuclear program and the destruction of its ballistic missile arsenal, which Israel deemed an "existential threat." According to an analysis by Guillaume de Dieuleveult in the French newspaper Le Figaro, Netanyahu has publicly asserted that these goals were met, claiming the nuclear program was "annihilated" through a combination of Israeli and American strikes and targeted assassinations of Iranian scientists.

However, this narrative of total success is being challenged. Reports from American media outlets like The New York Times and CNN suggest the strikes may have only set back Iran's nuclear ambitions by "a few months." Israel's military leadership echoes this uncertainty. The Chief of Staff of the Israeli army, while acknowledging an "important phase" was completed, cautiously warned, "the campaign against Iran is not over... we must not rest on our laurels." This measured assessment stands in contrast to Netanyahu's more triumphant declarations.

The abrupt end to the hostilities, forced by US President Donald Trump, highlights Netanyahu's growing reliance on Washington. Having alienated most of Israel's traditional allies, with relations with European nations described as "execrable," Trump remains his last major supporter. The truce has made it clear that the US president now sets the rules, weakening Netanyahu's posture on the world stage.

Domestically, the conflict offered a brief political revival. After months of being maligned for the October 7th disaster and his handling of the Gaza war, the decisive action against Iran saw Netanyahu's approval ratings surge. However, this popularity has not translated into a secure majority for his coalition in potential elections. Now, attention is shifting back to Gaza and the 50 remaining hostages. Pressure is mounting from the US for a deal with Hamas to end the war finally, a move that Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, have vowed to oppose unconditionally. For Netanyahu, the victory he claims abroad may soon be eclipsed by the political battles he faces at home.

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