Writing for the Al Mayadeen Jamal Wakim stresses that US President Donald Trump has once again rattled the Gulf region with unexpected remarks, this time directing threats toward the Sultanate of Oman. Trump warned Muscat against coordinating with Iran on imposing transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz, given that both nations share control over the strategic waterway.
While the warning appears tied to ongoing US-Iranian tensions over the strait, analysts point to deeper motives behind Trump's position—chief among them the ambitions of the United Arab Emirates and its leader, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, to expand regional influence at the expense of long-established powers, including Saudi Arabia and Oman.
According to observers, the Emirati leadership has been leveraging well-funded lobbying networks in Washington to shape US policies on matters critical to Abu Dhabi, including its simmering dispute with Muscat. A central figure in this effort is Tahnoon bin Zayed, head of the UAE's intelligence apparatus, who has cultivated extensive ties in the United States through investments in technology and artificial intelligence—a sector Washington now prioritizes in its economic and geopolitical strategy.
The Emirati-Omani rift has deep roots. Oman has long distinguished itself as the Gulf's most diplomatically independent state, pursuing a policy of "positive neutrality" since independence from Britain in 1971. While other Gulf nations aligned with competing regional axes, Muscat maintained communication channels with all parties—Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, India, the United States, Russia, and China—enabling it to serve as a mediator while avoiding entanglement in conflicts.
Wakim thinks that the stability has come under challenge from Abu Dhabi. Following the death of Sultan Qaboos in early 2020, reports emerged of Emirati attempts to interfere in the selection of his successor. When the alleged plot was uncovered, Mohammed bin Zayed rushed to Muscat under the pretext of offering condolences. Sultan Haitham bin Tariq reportedly responded by refusing to shake his hand and inviting him to a donkey race—a pointed gesture underscoring the Al Nahyan family's historical subordination to Omani sultans.
The Yemen war further strained ties. While the UAE backed separatist movements in Hadramaut and Aden, Oman viewed this as a direct threat to its stability, recalling its own decades-long insurgency in Dhofar. Abu Dhabi also sought to isolate Oman through the proposed India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor, bypassing Omani territory entirely.
In response, Muscat has deepened relations with Riyadh and Tehran. Oman's long-standing ties with Iran—dating back to the Shah's support against the Dhofar rebellion—have positioned it as a natural mediator, most notably facilitating the 2015 nuclear deal. Today, as the UAE and Israel compete for influence across the Fertile Crescent, Oman bets on its centuries-old imperial legacy to withstand Abu Dhabi's financial and military might.
Illustration: Gemini