As Washington threatens fresh military strikes against Iran, the Gulf monarchies are far from united — a division that French diplomacy is racing to manage, Le Monde reports.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot ended a diplomatic tour of the Gulf on Friday, May 1, under the shadow of an imminent military escalation. Saudi Arabia warned that new American airstrikes against Iranian civilian infrastructure were expected within 48 hours, Le Monde reported. The strikes, threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump since late March, would target Iran following a fragile ceasefire that has held for nearly 30 days. Tehran has already warned that any such attack would trigger retaliatory strikes against Gulf states.
A Region Fractured by War
The Gulf monarchies are deeply divided over how to respond. Riyadh, relatively spared by Iranian strikes so far, is pushing for de-escalation and seeking to launch a regional conciliation forum, drawing closer to Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan. The United Arab Emirates, which bore the heaviest toll from over 30 days of Iranian attacks, has instead encouraged Washington and Israel to press on with military action, and alongside Israel has reportedly lobbied the U.S. to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
The intra-Gulf rivalry has burst into the open: Abu Dhabi abruptly withdrew from OPEC to make its oil available to Washington without production quotas — a move that Saudi sources described to Le Monde as triggering "a kind of rage" in Riyadh. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the Emirates now depend on overland routes through Saudi Arabia, giving the kingdom unexpected leverage.
France Sees an Opening
Barrot's visit was designed to prepare for a post-war order, but it has also become a pitch for closer ties. France provided aerial defense assistance to Gulf states from the earliest days of the conflict, helping intercept Iranian drones and missiles. Paris is now exploring expanded military partnerships — from air-defense systems and jamming technology to Rafale fighter jets, which unlike American F-15s sold to Saudi Arabia carry no operational restrictions in the region.
"Like the Europeans, the Gulf countries want to reinforce their resilience and sovereignty," Barrot said, as quoted by Le Monde. "This is an opportunity for our two regions to work together."
Structural Limits Remain
Analysts caution that the crisis is, paradoxically, deepening Gulf dependence on U.S. military power. "Gulf states are becoming even more reliant on US military capabilities," wrote Amr Hamzawy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Foreign Affairs, as cited by Le Monde. Despite years of diversification efforts, the American security umbrella remains indispensable — limiting how far Gulf voices can carry in Washington.
The United Arab Emirates, which Le Monde describes as suffering "an existential shock," has received Israeli Iron Dome and Iron Beam laser defense systems alongside Israeli operators, according to Axios and the Financial Times. Abu Dhabi holds little hope for a durable peace with Tehran and appears to have resigned itself to a resumption of hostilities — ultimately banking on the collapse of the Iranian regime.