by Petros Zarounas
Much has been written about UN Secretary-General António Guterres's visit to Cyprus. Most of it reflects the partisan lens through which each side views events. Paradoxically, both the Christodoulides government and the opposition have described the visit as successful, agreeing that momentum will continue until the informal five-party conference is convened. Averof Neophytou's differing position stands out as notable. My own assessment differs, and it is as follows.
Guterres's concluding statement makes clear that the two sides agree on none of it — not on substantive issues, not on procedural matters, and not on confidence-building measures (CBMs), which is why no new CBM was announced, nor was the implementation of any previous one. Beyond this, Guterres set no date for convening the informal conference, referring instead to preconditions that must first be met. He even clarified that the customary September trilateral meeting in New York will not take place this year. Taken together, this amounts, in my view, to a triple deadlock — something unprecedented in the history of the Cyprus problem.
It is also worth noting that Guterres once again made no reference to a bizonal, bicommunal federation (BBF). He implied that the negotiating acquis — that is, the convergences reached so far — would be recorded by the UN but not fully adopted, merely taken into account, a point also raised in a post by former Turkish Cypriot negotiator Özdil Nami. Notably, Guterres made no mention of the so-called "Guterres framework," owing to Turkey's well-known objection to it. In effect, Guterres himself appears to have dropped it from the negotiating acquis. Factoring in the now-famous new "Holguín ideas," the conclusion emerges that the UN is slowly but steadily moving away from the BBF model, in search of a middle ground between the BBF favored by the Greek Cypriot side and the two-state solution sought by Turkey.
A new element has been added: the prioritization of CBMs, as articulated by Tufan Erhürman before EU envoy Rafael Fitto, and also recorded in a corresponding statement by the Turkish Foreign Ministry. It becomes clear that Turkish consent for Guterres's vaguely worded announcement on convening the informal conference was secured through his commitment that CBMs would come first. Erhürman's proposal for weekly meetings is directly tied to discussion of the CBMs that matter to him, aimed at satisfying his voter base. Turkey, for its part, views the CBMs as a test of the Greek Cypriot side's political will to negotiate in earnest.
Hope remains alive, since even without a set date, the prospect of a new informal five-party conference persists — and this time the Secretary-General did not wish us "good luck," as he did at Crans-Montana. It also remains alive because, one way or another, the revival of convergences signals a return to federal logic. In closing, I would stress that an informal five-party conference will not materialize unless the two sides agree on a shared vision, as they did in 2014 with the joint Anastasiades–Eroğlu declaration. Otherwise, even if it does take place, it will be doomed to fail.