What happened on Sunday in Saxony-Anhalt may appear, at first sight, far removed from the Levant.
It is not.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has surged to a commanding victory in the eastern German state, according to the first election-night projections, delivering one of the most dramatic blows yet to Germany’s post-war political establishment. For The Levant Files, the significance goes well beyond German domestic politics: Germany sits at the centre of European policy on migration, Syria, Turkey, Israel, defence and the Eastern Mediterranean. A political earthquake in Germany will eventually send tremors south and east.
ARD projects the AfD at 44.5 percent, more than double its 20.8 percent result in 2021. The Christian Democratic Union has fallen to around 18.5 percent, from 37.1 percent five years ago.
This is not a normal protest vote.
It is an electoral rupture.
For years, Germany’s mainstream parties have defended a political consensus built around European integration, relatively liberal migration policies, climate transition, institutional centrism and the systematic exclusion of the AfD from government.
In Saxony-Anhalt, that model has suffered a devastating rejection.
The result will inevitably be read by AfD supporters as proof that large numbers of voters have reached the end of their patience with migration policy, economic stagnation, rising living costs and what they regard as an insulated political establishment.
Critics, however, see something far more dangerous: the normalization of a radical right-wing force whose Saxony-Anhalt branch has been classified by the state domestic intelligence service as confirmed right-wing extremist, a designation the AfD rejects.
Yet whatever interpretation one chooses, the political message is becoming difficult to ignore.
The liberal-centrist formula that shaped Germany over the past decade is no longer delivering electoral stability.
That matters enormously for the Levant.
Germany has been one of the principal destinations for refugees from Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East. German migration politics has therefore become inseparable from developments in Syria, Turkey and the Eastern Mediterranean.
A stronger AfD also means greater pressure for tougher borders, accelerated deportations, tighter asylum rules and a fundamentally different debate about Europe’s relationship with migration-producing regions.
The repercussions could reach Turkey, which remains central to European migration management, and could alter Berlin’s approach toward Ankara.
Germany also occupies a unique position in Europe’s relationship with Israel, while Berlin remains influential in EU discussions concerning Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran.
The greater the AfD’s influence becomes, the harder it will be to assume continuity in German foreign policy.
There is also a broader European dimension.
If Germany moves further to the right, the political centre of gravity of the entire European Union moves with it. Questions once treated as belonging to the political fringe — border closures, mass deportations, restrictions on asylum, national sovereignty over EU integration — increasingly enter the mainstream.
This is why Saxony-Anhalt matters to a publication called The Levant Files.
The region does not exist in isolation. Decisions taken in Berlin shape migration routes, sanctions, diplomacy, defence policy and relations with Turkey and Israel.
Sunday’s result therefore carries a warning far beyond Germany.
The German political establishment can continue describing the AfD as unacceptable. It can maintain the firewall around it. It can insist that liberal democratic consensus remains the only viable path.
But elections have consequences.
And in Saxony-Anhalt, nearly half the electorate appears to have delivered a much harsher verdict:
The old political formula is no longer working.
What begins today as an electoral earthquake in eastern Germany could tomorrow reshape Europe’s relationship with the Levant.
Photo: AI generated.