Four years after the failed Crans Montana talks, former Greek and Turkish Cypriot negotiators see little prospect for breakthrough
The Republic of Cyprus anxiously awaits the results of the upcoming informal summit in Geneva aimed at reviving the stalled peace process on the divided island. However, in exclusive interviews with the Cyprus News Agency conducted by the creator of The Levant Times, Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias, four former negotiators—two Greek Cypriots and two Turkish Cypriots—expressed significant skepticism about the prospects for a positive outcome. Their assessments paint a picture of widening divides, strategic shifts, and diminishing political will to achieve the long-sought reunification of the island.
The Post-Crans Montana Reality: Wider Divides Than Ever Before
All four negotiators cited the failed 2017 Cran Montana talks as a critical turning point in the Cyprus peace process. Former Turkish Cypriot negotiator Ozdil Nami described those talks as "the closest point to a solution," noting that "today we have reached a point where we are further from a solution perhaps more than in the last 30 years."
This sentiment was echoed by all interviewees, who agreed that the fundamental positions of both sides have grown further apart since 2017. Andreas Mavroyiannis, former Greek Cypriot negotiator, emphasized that while some procedural efforts continue, substantive progress remains elusive: "There are some efforts being made to do something, but we don't have real developments."
According to the negotiators, the impasse is not merely about trust issues but reflects a more profound lack of political will. "I don't agree that the problem is lack of trust," stated Mavroyiannis, suggesting this claim often serves as a "smoke screen" that "covers the lack of political will to do something." This assessment was shared by Nami, who bluntly stated: "What we need now is not confidence-building measures, but political will."
Greek Cypriot Perspective: Deep Mistrust and Limited Expectations
Former Greek Cypriot negotiator Giorgos Iakovidis expressed profound skepticism regarding Turkey's intentions. "From what I see, the Turkish Cypriots and more specifically Turkey have no intention to sit down and engage in real negotiations," he said. Iakovidis was particularly critical of the current Turkish Cypriot leader, describing him as "completely unsuitable to negotiate a solution," adding, "I don't trust that this leader will accept [a solution] or press Turkey."
Iakovidis also revealed a telling meeting with the American representative of the UN Secretary-General, which left him disappointed: "I realized they have significant doubts about how this entire solution-finding process will function."
Andreas Mavroyiannis focused on the procedural nature of what might be achieved in Geneva. "The best we can hope for is procedural outcomes," he explained, suggesting that an agreement might be reached on "appointing a new envoy" from the UN Secretary-General to "bring the parties to the negotiating table." However, he remained pessimistic about substantive progress: "I don't think anything substantial can emerge from Geneva."
Turkish Cypriot Perspective: Strategic Shift and New Realities
The Turkish Cypriot negotiators offered insights into Ankara's changing approach to the Cyprus issue. Kudret Özersay claimed that former Greek Cypriot President Anastasiades had "opened Pandora's box" at Cran Montana by discussing a two-state solution with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu. "It was like rubbing Aladdin's lamp. The genie came out of the lamp," Özersay metaphorically explained.
Özersay emphasized a critical distinction in Turkey's current position compared to past stances: "For years, even in Denktash's era, Turkey occasionally spoke of a two-state solution. It's not the first time, but there is a difference now. Previously, it did so as a tactical maneuver...to pressure the other side. This time it's not like that."
"Greek Cypriots must understand that this time it's not a tactical change in rhetoric, but a strategic paradigm shift. Turkey's policy has changed, and its desire to discuss a two-state solution, that is, a solution outside federation, is not a maneuver but a real policy change," he added.
Ozdil Nami offered a candid assessment of Turkey's evolution: "Turkey has shown significant will for resolving the Cyprus issue twice under Erdogan – in 2004 and 2017. Both times it failed to achieve results. Turkey concluded that its will alone is not enough and that its offers are insufficient to motivate Greek Cypriots to accept a federal solution."
The Shadow of Turkey's Influence
The increasing influence of Turkey in the occupied territories emerged as a significant factor in the negotiations' dynamics. Mavroyiannis pointed to "a problem in the occupied areas related to Turkey's growing influence," which makes it difficult for "the Turkish Cypriot community and leadership to gain autonomy from Ankara."
This influence has manifested in the Turkish Cypriot leader's changing positions. Mavroyiannis noted that while Mr. Tatar initially insisted on preconditions like "sovereign equality" or "two states" before negotiating, his stance has gradually shifted toward the "so-called three Ds" (direct trade, flights, relations).
Nami highlighted the contradictions in the current Turkish Cypriot leadership's position: "Mr. Tatar on one hand says 'give me the 3Ds and I'll return to the negotiating table' and on the other declares that 'Cran Montana is over for us, federation is over.' If you don't have a vision for the reunification of this country, why should someone give you the 3Ds? This is inconsistent."
Limited Expectations for Geneva: Procedural Progress at Best
All four negotiators set modest expectations for the upcoming Geneva conference. Nami suggested that a positive outcome would involve the parties jointly acknowledging that "the existing status quo is unacceptable," expressing their will to find a comprehensive solution, establishing working groups, and agreeing to meet again. "If they add some announcements regarding checkpoints and measures that will improve daily life for people on both sides, then we could say it was worth going to Geneva," he added.
Özersay predicted the UN Secretary-General would not risk trying to find common ground for a comprehensive solution in a short meeting due to the high risk of failure. Instead, he anticipated the Secretary-General would propose "starting a dialogue process to explore if it's possible to find common ground, possibly appointing a special representative to facilitate this process."
Additionally, Özersay expected the creation of a regional dialogue platform including not just Greek and Turkish Cypriots, but also Turkey and Greece, to discuss cooperation on issues like "opening airspace, opening ports, initiating direct trade, energy cooperation, and cooperation in combating human trafficking."
The Geopolitical Context
The broader geopolitical environment also features prominently in the negotiators' assessments. Nami pointed to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the policies of the Trump administration, and European concerns about no longer being able to rely on the US for their defense as factors generating "new dynamics." In this context, "Turkey has begun to see the need to strengthen its relations with Europe," he noted.
However, Özersay cautioned against expecting surprises from Turkey, stating that "without discussions with the US about the Middle East and European security issues, and without talks with Greece, Turkey will not make overtures or surprises."
A Path Forward?
Despite the prevailing pessimism, the negotiators offered some thoughts on potential ways forward. Nami suggested a different approach for the Geneva talks: "My advice is not to discuss the content – neither guarantees, nor political equality, nor territory, nor property. Focus directly on the process and pose the question: Why did we fail at Cran Montana? What was missing?"
"If the Secretary-General opens the meeting with this question, without getting involved in discussions about whether common ground exists or not, without entering into content issues, but simply asks 'Why did Cran Montana collapse? What was missing?', then perhaps there could be some movement," Nami explained.
As Cyprus approaches this critical juncture, the assessments of these experienced negotiators suggest that while the path to a comprehensive settlement remains fraught with challenges, maintaining dialogue—even with limited expectations—may be the only viable option for preventing further entrenchment of division on the island.
(NS)
Source: Cyprus News Agency (CNA)