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FOREIGN PUBLICATION: What is Erdoğan's Goal?*


by Ali Bayramoğlu

The political liquidation pursued by the government within a de facto unified powers system undoubtedly represents a move to depart from the democratic track. The operation against [Ekrem] İmamoğlu is critical enough to alter Turkey's political regime trajectory potentially. One of the fundamental principles of democracies is prohibiting the arbitrary and forcible elimination of political rivals.

Social and Political Reactions

The political authority's move to pressure the opposition and eliminate İmamoğlu through security forces and the judiciary has touched democracy's most sensitive nerve, proportionally destabilizing the country.

Opposition groups and youth are protesting in the streets, protesting against current developments.

The Republican People's Party (CHP), deprived of other political recourse, calls on citizens and supporters to take to the streets to defend their democratic will.

Intense confrontations are occurring between demonstrators and police forces.

Critical Assessment of the Situation

We are undoubtedly facing a political liquidation pursued by a government operating with de facto unified powers—a clear departure from democratic principles. The operation against İmamoğlu is critical to potentially altering Turkey's political regime trajectory. A fundamental tenet of democracy is the absence of arbitrary and forcible elimination of political opponents.

These developments represent normal, natural reactions expected in any democratic country facing similar circumstances.

The damage inflicted on democratic aspirations (what remains of them) is substantial and could worsen.

The economic cost to Turkey from this maneuver has already reached at least $50 billion and could increase further.

Potential Crisis Management Approaches

In such a scenario, the primary question is how the political authority intends to manage this crisis it has created...

There are two possible management approaches:

The first is to alleviate the crisis. Releasing İmamoğlu after his detention period and allowing him to continue his duties as the head of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality would partially accomplish this.

The second is to build a strategy upon the crisis and deliberately deepen it. Arresting İmamoğlu and appointing a trustee to Istanbul Municipality would open the door to this second path.

Potential Consequences and Analysis

In the future, escalating tensions could lead Turkey toward a new state of emergency. Such a possibility would signify a transition from a constitutional one-person system toward a genuinely Putin-style dictatorial direction.

Could Erdoğan be unaware of these implications?

Or might he have accepted these risks deliberately?

Has the President embarked on this path assuming society would not protest significantly or that protests could be suppressed and eventually normalized?

Or has he diverted to this path, anticipating the crisis and calculating subsequent moves?

Time will reveal these answers...

Erdoğan's Paradoxical Position

Despite everything, it doesn't remain easy to comprehend these developments and [Recep Tayyip] Erdoğan's underlying motivations.

Turkey is experiencing international ascendance in many respects; its strategic value and capabilities to act independently as a central regional power are increasing. The armed aspect of the Kurdish issue is approaching resolution. The economy, though gradually improving, is showing a downward trend in inflation.

These factors constitute Erdoğan's power base and sustain his hold on office.

Conversely, the political authority's control over all state institutions, particularly the judiciary, through command-style mechanisms that eliminate legally established autonomous spaces has become increasingly evident.

And this affliction is progressive...

The authoritarian order, absolute politicization of the judiciary, and pursuit of an obedient, disciplined society persist as an insatiable strategy for power consolidation.

This is precisely what drives Turkey into recurring crises.

This approach systematically undermines progress and strengthening in other domains.

Even Kurdish peace initiatives, based on political power-sharing and transformation, risk nullification under these conditions.

Questioning the Motivation

Why is all this happening?

During the Gezi protests, for example, public demonstrations emerged, and Erdoğan perceived these reactions as attempts to remove him from power. Additionally, the Gülen movement presented a significant challenge. In essence, he faced a dual threat.

Today, no such situation exists.

Moreover, elections are at least two years away, even if early elections were called.

Is Erdoğan envisioning a Russian-style system, systematically implementing it as part of a calculated plan?

Is he falling into the "more power, more authority" trap that ensnares every autocrat?

If so, the consequent cost to the country and Erdoğan himself will be enormous.


*This article was first published on Serbestiyet on March 22, 2025. 

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