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Imamoglu's Arrest: Erdogan's Response to Plummeting Coalition Support?

As Turkish authorities move to detain Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu along with hundreds of politicians and entrepreneurs, newly released polling data reveals the likely motivation behind this crackdown: the ruling coalition's grip on power is slipping. The Republican People's Party (CHP) plans to announce Imamoglu's presidential candidacy this Sunday, but he may be watching these developments from behind bars in what appears to be a desperate attempt to neutralize a rising threat amid declining voter support.

Recent survey data from the PIAR Firm, conducted between February 28 and March 3 across 26 Turkish cities with 3,480 participants, illuminates why President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government might be resorting to such measures. After 23 years in power, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) now trails the opposition for the first time, capturing just 30.2% of voter support compared to the CHP's 30.7%.

Even more alarming for Erdogan is that his coalition with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which polled at 9.3%, yields a combined 39.5% - insufficient to maintain their parliamentary majority or secure Erdogan's reelection if constitutional term limits were to be removed. This represents a shift in Turkish politics after more than two decades of AKP dominance.

The timing of Imamoglu's arrest cannot be overlooked. Having defeated AKP candidates twice in Istanbul mayoral races, including a humiliating 2019 rematch that Erdogan forced after refusing to accept initial results, Imamoglu has emerged as the opposition's most viable presidential contender. His popularity directly threatens Erdogan's continued rule, particularly as the numbers show voters abandoning the ruling coalition.

The poll reveals other significant players in Turkey's fragmented political landscape: the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) at 7.6%, the ultra-nationalist and xenophobic Zafer Party at 6.1%, and the conservative Yeniden Refah Party at 5.2%. The Good Party, another nationalist party, registered 4.2% support, while smaller parties collectively account for approximately 6.7%.

Imamoglu faces charges of corruption and alleged connections to terrorist organizations - accusations widely viewed as politically motivated. A conviction would legally bar him from running for president, which many analysts see as the primary objective of these proceedings.

Despite the legal onslaught, the CHP remains determined to proceed with naming Imamoglu as their presidential candidate this weekend. This stance has galvanized opposition supporters, who have taken to the streets across Turkey's major cities chanting, "You cannot stop the will of the people."

The confluence of Imamoglu's legal troubles and the ruling coalition's declining poll numbers presents a clear picture: as Erdogan's popular support wanes, his government appears increasingly willing to use judicial mechanisms to eliminate political rivals. The question remains whether these tactics will succeed or instead further energize an opposition that, for the first time in decades, sees a genuine democratic path to power in Turkey.

(NS)

Source: PIAR's X page

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