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Israel's New Approach to Gaza: Between Full Invasion and Diplomatic Settlement

Israel appears to be reconsidering its approach to the Gaza conflict, moving away from plans for a "gates of hell" full-scale invasion toward a more measured strategy. According to recent reporting from The Jerusalem Post, Israeli military and political leaders are now discussing "gradual and targeted penetrations" rather than the massive invasion that had been anticipated following the breakdown of hostage negotiations.

This shift represents a significant tactical change from what was expected under new IDF Chief Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, who was originally positioned to lead a more aggressive approach than his predecessor. The previous plan would have involved rapidly invading all parts of Gaza and moving Palestinian civilians to the Al-Mawasi humanitarian area, giving the IDF "unprecedented freedom to unleash aerial bombing and tank and artillery shelling" without civilian considerations.

The Middle Path

The emerging strategy appears to be a "door number three" option that avoids making a definitive decision between full-scale war and a diplomatic settlement. This approach involves:

1. Gradual military escalation similar to operations conducted under former IDF chief Herzi Halevi

2. Maintaining the threat of a full invasion if Hamas doesn't relent within "some period of days or weeks"

3. Calibrated pressure designed to push Hamas toward accepting terms more favorable to Israel

For the Jerusalem Post, this middle path reflects Israel's continued dilemma about how to effectively eliminate Hamas without triggering humanitarian catastrophe, international condemnation, or further endangering hostages.

The Hamas Challenge

A central challenge facing Israeli military planners is the question of Hamas's fighting capacity. Defense sources acknowledge that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad may have recruited as many as 25,000 and 5,000 new fighters respectively. These fighters can easily blend with the civilian population, making military elimination extremely difficult without a "very extended military occupation" - something that reportedly has support from only about 10% of the Israeli public.

While intelligence efforts have improved in identifying Hamas fighters hiding among civilians, the fundamental problem remains: complete military elimination of Hamas would require a prolonged occupation that lacks domestic support.

Diplomatic Alternatives

The alternative to full military elimination is "some kind of imperfect diplomatic settlement that partially sets back Hamas but does not fully expel the terror group from Gaza." This explains recent developments including:

- A two-week ceasefire without Hamas releasing hostages

- Discussions about another deal that would free 5-10 live hostages in exchange for extending the ceasefire by 40-60 days

- Increased aggressive small-scale operations against targets like Islamic Jihad drones, even when risking international criticism

The Road Ahead

Israel now faces three options:

1. Pursue another imperfect hostage deal

2. Launch a massive new invasion with all its attendant risks

3. Return to smaller, gradual military operations

The current strategy appears to be option three, which effectively defers the choice between diplomacy and full-scale war. This tactical shift suggests Israel's leadership is struggling with the long-term vision for Gaza, caught between military imperatives, humanitarian concerns, and political realities both domestically and internationally.

As tensions resume and fresh aerial bombardments reportedly cause casualties, this strategic indecision may shape the conflict's trajectory in the coming weeks, with significant implications for both Israeli security objectives and Palestinian civilians caught in the crossfire.

(NS)

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