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Recent internal instability within Turkey is emerging as a critical factor intensifying complexities across the Middle East, with significant potential consequences for Syria's power dynamics and Lebanon's already precarious situation, according to an analysis by Johnny Mounayer published on March 27 in Al Joumhouria. Mounayer's assessment stresses that Turkey's crucial role as a perceived sponsor of the new Syrian administration under President Ahmed al-Sharaa makes its domestic troubles a significant variable. This instability could potentially open doors for rivals like Iran and add layers to existing regional tensions involving Syria, Lebanon, Israel, and major world powers.
The broader context includes delicate Syrian-Lebanese relations, highlighted by Damascus's sudden postponement and relocation to Saudi Arabia of a defense ministers' meeting. While ostensibly linked to Syrian government formation, Mounayer suggests Damascus seeks Saudi guarantees for any deal with Beirut amid refugee repatriation and border security disputes. Syria was reportedly unhappy with Lebanese Army intervention against Syrian armed groups (allegedly linked to Hezbollah) near Hermel.
Syria's government, already grappling with Israeli military pressure in the south and struggles to consolidate internal control, faces added vulnerability due to the situation in Turkey. The analysis points out that Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, had previously aligned with the US (under Trump) to limit Iranian influence in Syria. Therefore, any weakening of Erdogan's position, Mounayer posits, is being closely watched by Tehran and could potentially revive Iran's ambitions to regain ground in Syria.
Meanwhile, Israel continues its actions in southern Syria, seemingly aiming to establish a permanent presence and weaken Syrian state capabilities by targeting military sites. The analysis warns that these actions might foreshadow similar Israeli intentions towards southern Lebanon. Despite Syria's weaknesses, Western powers and Russia appear keen to prevent its collapse, evidenced by discreet US engagement, planned EU aid, and Russian energy support – likely tacitly approved by Washington to maintain stability and protect Russian bases.
The US, under President Trump, continues to pressure Iran over its nuclear program, missiles, and regional proxies. However, according to the analysis, Trump's domestic challenges, dubbed "Signal Gate," could lead to a more aggressive foreign policy stance, potentially accelerating efforts to resolve the Iran issue, either through negotiation or force.
Ultimately, Mounayer's analysis concludes that the unfolding situation within Turkey adds a significant layer of uncertainty and potential volatility. This internal Turkish turmoil, impacting Syria's key external backer, intersects dangerously with ongoing Israeli actions, US domestic politics, and the persistent US-Iran standoff. The instability in Turkey, the report strongly suggests, could directly benefit Iran by weakening a primary obstacle to its influence in Syria. For Lebanon, caught in these powerful crosscurrents, the implications highlighted by Mounayer are severe. Increased pressure – security-related involving Hezbollah and economic – appears likely, significantly exacerbated by the potential fallout from Turkey's domestic troubles, pushing prospects for Lebanese stability or reconstruction further into the distance.