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Internal divisions appear within Turkey's ruling coalition as the government intensifies its campaign against opposition politicians, most notably Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. According to multiple sources, two distinct camps have emerged within the Turkish ruling establishment, revealing potential fractures in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's power base.
Divided Approaches to Opposition Control
The first camp, described as "conservative liberal," reportedly acknowledges the strategic value of applying pressure on opposition figures but advocates for restraint. This faction appears concerned about the economic repercussions of prolonged political instability, with Turkey already facing significant financial challenges.
In contrast, the second "ultra-nationalist and conservative" faction advocates an aggressive approach against the opposition. This hardline camp believes the current international context—with Western powers distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and various trade disputes—creates an opportune moment for bold domestic maneuvers without significant international backlash.
Constitutional Ambitions
Perhaps most notably, this second group supports moving toward constitutional changes, enabling President Erdoğan to seek a third term in office. They view the crackdown on opposition leaders as necessary to consolidate power before attempting such significant constitutional revisions.
The İmamoğlu Case
The divide within the ruling coalition comes into sharp focus with the case of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. On March 19, İmamoğlu—who serves as both Istanbul's mayor and President of the Union of Municipalities of Turkey—was detained as part of what authorities described as "terrorism" and "corruption" investigations targeting the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. By March 23, he was formally arrested on multiple charges, including "bid rigging, recording personal data, bribery, and forming an organization," and subsequently transferred to Silivri Prison. Following his arrest, Turkey's Ministry of Interior removed him from his position as mayor.
İmamoğlu's Political Rise: A Threat to the Establishment?
Despite his current legal troubles, Ekrem İmamoğlu's political trajectory had been remarkable before his detention. His historic victory in the 2019 Istanbul mayoral race—winning twice after authorities controversially annulled the first election—established him as a formidable opposition figure. İmamoğlu's growing popularity extended beyond Istanbul, positioning him as a potential challenger to President Erdoğan in future presidential elections.
His effective governance of Turkey's largest city and economic hub earned him widespread support, even among traditional conservative voters. İmamoğlu's inclusive rhetoric and focus on transparent municipal management contrasted sharply with accusations of authoritarian tendencies directed at the central government. As a pre-election candidate for the CHP's presidential nomination, his improving political prospects have alarmed elements within the ruling coalition, potentially accelerating the crackdown that led to his arrest and removal from office. This development has only highlighted the apparent divisions within Turkey's ruling establishment.
(NS)