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According to multiple Israeli and foreign sources, Turkey is significantly increasing its military presence in Syria. This includes reports of Ankara negotiating "secret deals" with the new Syrian administration to establish permanent military bases. Critically, some of these potential bases are allegedly situated much closer to Israel's northern border, notably the Golan Heights, than previous Turkish positions. This perceived encroachment into an area Israel considers vital to its security is ringing alarm bells.
Israel's concerns are multi-faceted. As detailed by foreign reports, the establishment of Turkish military facilities, potentially equipped with advanced air defense systems or housing combat aircraft near its border, is viewed as a direct strategic threat. It challenges Israel's long-held air supremacy over Syrian skies, which the Israeli Air Force utilizes frequently to strike Iranian-linked targets and prevent weapons transfers to Hezbollah. The proximity raises fears of intelligence gathering, support for potentially hostile proxies, and the risk of direct military clashes, accidental or otherwise. The heightened state of alert in Israel suggests that contingency planning for preemptive measures to neutralize these perceived threats is likely underway.
A sharp deterioration in diplomatic language is fueling the strategic anxieties. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has recently employed exceptionally harsh rhetoric. Erdoğan's call to "destroy Zionist Israel" a statement that provoked a furious response from Israel's Foreign Minister, who denounced the Turkish leader's "antisemitic face." This public feud underscores the deep animosity and distrust characterizing current bilateral relations, making de-escalation significantly more difficult.
Ankara, however, publicly frames its Syrian engagement through a different lens. Official statements, reported by Anadolu Agency and pro-government English newspaper Daily Sabah, emphasize Turkey's commitment to Syria's territorial integrity and national unity under the new regime. President Erdoğan, in recent addresses and discussions with allies like Qatar, has reiterated Turkey's primary focus on combating the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) and its Syrian affiliates, which Ankara designates as terrorist organizations posing an existential threat. These stated goals, however, are viewed with deep suspicion by Israel, which sees Turkey's actions primarily as an opportunistic power play aimed at projecting influence southward.
Analysts are increasingly highlighting the unique danger this specific rivalry poses. As noted by India.com and Geopolitical Futures, a confrontation between Israel and Turkey – a central NATO member with a formidable military – could be far more destabilizing for the Middle East than Israel's ongoing shadow war with Iran or its tense relationships with other neighbors. While some assessments, like one in Forbes, question Turkey's immediate capacity to fully contest Israel's aerial dominance over Syria, the sheer potential for miscalculation and rapid escalation between two militarily capable and increasingly hostile states cannot be understated.
Collision Not Inevitable – The Iranian Factor and Pragmatism
Despite the alarming rhetoric and military posturing suggesting an unavoidable clash, a direct Israel-Turkey conflict in Syria should not be taken for granted. Several potent factors could compel both nations to exercise restraint. The complex regional chessboard, particularly Iran's pervasive influence and threat, is a critical, albeit paradoxical, element—the 'Iranian paragon.'
Both Israel and Turkey harbor deep concerns about Tehran's regional ambitions and proxies, even if they pursue vastly different strategies to counter them. Neither country wishes to engage in a costly and unpredictable conflict with the other, which could inadvertently strengthen Iran's position in Syria and the wider region. This shared, albeit differently perceived, Iranian challenge might impose a degree of caution, forcing Ankara and Jerusalem to weigh the strategic benefits of confronting each other against the potential gains for their common adversary.
Furthermore, underlying diplomatic channels, however strained, still exist. Significant, though currently damaged, economic interdependencies also provide leverage for de-escalation. Pressure from international actors, particularly the United States, which counts both as key (though often problematic) allies, could also play a role in encouraging more sober and calm initiatives. The potential regional and global fallout from a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey would be immense, creating powerful incentives for both sides to explore off-ramps and avoid the precipice. While the situation remains tense and volatile, the Iranian factor and diplomatic and economic realities suggest that the path toward a direct collision, while worryingly plausible, may be averted.