Turkey's former top diplomat in Iraq's Autonomous Kurdistan, Aydin Selcen, shares with Nikolaos Stelgias and The Levant Files (TLF) insights on Turkey's foreign policy priorities, the potential for transactional diplomacy with Trump, and the upcoming Cyprus summit.
Selcen's analysis paints a picture of a Turkey navigating a complex and rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, with potential breakthroughs in its relations with the U.S., Syria, and Cyprus. As the Trump administration takes shape and regional dynamics evolve, Turkey's foreign policy will undoubtedly remain a key area to watch in the coming months.
Trump's Return and Turkey's Foreign Policy
As the Trump administration takes the reins once again in 2025, Turkey's foreign policy landscape is poised for significant shifts. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has openly expressed satisfaction with Trump's victory, and the mutual admiration between the two leaders suggests a renewed focus on transactional diplomacy. Selcen notes that both leaders share a pragmatic, even opportunistic, approach to international relations, which aligns with the broader global trend of leader-to-leader diplomacy.
However, Selcen cautions that the relationship's trajectory remains uncertain, particularly given the Trump team's perceived anti-Islam and pro-Israel stance. Despite these challenges, Selcen believes that Turkey-U.S. relations, which have hit rock bottom in recent years, can only improve from here. "The nature of Turkey-U.S. relations has deteriorated so much that the only way forward is up," he asserts.
Transactional Diplomacy: A New Era?
When asked whether Trump and Erdoğan could rekindle their transactional diplomacy, Selcen remains cautiously optimistic. He emphasizes that in international relations, sincerity takes a backseat to concrete national interests. "States are driven by tangible national interests, not sincerity," he says. Selcen also highlights the seismic shift in the international order caused by Trump's U-turn on Ukraine, which has fundamentally shaken the post-World War II global framework.
The PKK and Turkey's New Opening
Selcen also weighs in on the Turkish government's recent initiative regarding Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). While he admits to having no insider knowledge of the initiative, he believes it is primarily aimed at achieving results in Syria. He notes that Ankara's shift towards a more constructive and politically solution-oriented discourse, particularly in its dealings with the PKK, Greece, and Armenia, has been positively received in Western Europe.
Selcen predicts that a potential announcement from Öcalan's prison on İmralı Island, followed by a declaration from the PKK's leadership in Kandil, could mark a significant turning point. "If the PKK announces its dissolution or disarmament, it would be a major win for the Erdoğan administration, both domestically and internationally," he says.
Syria: A New Chapter?
On the topic of Syria, Selcen describes the country as being at a "zero moment" in its history, grappling with existential questions about its identity and future. From Ankara's perspective, he sees a new Syrian administration that is more favorable towards Turkey as a significant achievement. "For the first time in bilateral relations, there is a Syrian government that is entirely positive towards Turkey," he notes.
Selcen also highlights the potential economic benefits for Turkey in Syria's reconstruction, particularly with Gulf capital from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. "Turkish companies are likely to secure the largest share of the reconstruction efforts," he says.
Cyprus Summit: A Path to Peace?
Looking ahead to the upcoming Cyprus summit in March 2025, Selcen expresses cautious optimism. He believes that Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis's strong political position could pave the way for creative diplomacy with Erdoğan. "Mitsotakis is in a comfortable position politically, and his willingness to engage in creative diplomacy with Erdoğan is a positive development for both countries," he says.
Selcen predicts that the summit could lead to a new agreement that, while not identical to the UN parameters, could contain elements of a lasting peaceful solution. He speculates that the outcome might resemble a confederation-like structure, marking a significant step towards resolving the long-standing Cyprus issue.
(NS)