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ONLY IN TLF: What is the New Game Plan of Erdogan?


Turkey is descending into political chaos following the dramatic arrest of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on terrorism-related charges. This bold move appears to be part of a calculated strategy by President Erdogan aimed at securing his political future.

Erdogan's Electoral Strategy Emerges

According to well-informed Turkish sources of The Levant Files (TLF), the arrest of İmamoğlu and the sudden opening of dialogue with Kurdish groups are directly tied to Erdogan's ambitions for the upcoming presidential elections. Following the ruling coalition's defeat in the 2024 local elections, a new strategy has been formulated with two clear objectives:

1. Secure Erdogan's re-election for a third presidential term

2. Neutralize potential opposition leaders who could challenge him

The arrest of İmamoğlu, who was seen as a leading potential presidential candidate, appears to be a critical component of this plan. Similarly, the detention of ultranationalist Victory Party leader Umit Ozdag and various judicial actions against smaller municipalities follow the same pattern of weakening opposition forces.

The Electoral Mathematics

Erdogan's coalition has developed a specific formula for victory in the presidential elections:

- Justice and Development Party (JDP): at least 30%

- Nationalist Movement Party and smaller allies: at least 10% 

- Kurdish voters and undecided voters: at least 10.01%

If this calculation proves insufficient, sources suggest the ruling coalition may attempt to modify the 50%+1 electoral threshold required for presidential victory.

Unprecedented Legal Action Against İmamoğlu

In an unprecedented move, Turkish authorities detained İmamoğlu along with 106 others on March 19, 2025, in early morning raids. The Istanbul Chief Prosecutor's Office has launched two separate investigations against İmamoğlu:

1. A corruption investigation alleging he leads a criminal organization involved in bid rigging, bribery, and money laundering

2. A terrorism investigation claiming he aided the PKK/KCK terrorist organization through a "city reconciliation initiative" during the 2024 local elections

Among those detained were İmamoğlu's advisor Murat Ongun, Şişli Mayor Resul Emrah Şahan, İBB Deputy Secretary General Mahir Polat, and campaign director Necati Özkan.

Market Reaction and Government Response

The political turmoil has triggered severe economic consequences:

- The Euro surged by 5 lira in a single day, reaching a historic high exceeding 45 TL

- The Dollar rose by 5 lira to a record 41.12 TL

- Gold prices hit an all-time high of 3,600 TL per gram

- The Istanbul Stock Exchange opened with a steep 6.87% decline, triggering circuit breakers

Authorities have imposed a four-day ban on protests and demonstrations throughout Istanbul and restricted access to major social media platforms including Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube. Several metro lines have been closed, including the Taksim station.

A Constitutional Power Play

Beyond the immediate arrests, sources highlight Erdogan's plan to introduce a new constitution, describing it as "a new political engineering project." With the Turkish lira continuing its downward spiral, the unfolding political drama threatens to bring new dimensions of instability to Turkey's already fragile situation.

İmamoğlu's arrest appears to clear the path for Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas to potentially emerge as the opposition's presidential candidate. However, sources indicate the ruling coalition will likely attempt to undermine his candidacy as well, either through courting Kurdish support or through similar judicial maneuvers.

(NS)
Photo: The Guardian 

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