Syria's Caretaker Government Faces Daunting 90-Day Test Amid Economic, Security, and Political Hurdles
According to a detailed report by Enab Baladi, an anti-Baath newspaper, Syria's newly formed caretaker government faces a critical 90-day period fraught with immense economic, security, and political challenges. Tasked with steering the nation after the dramatic fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the interim administration, led by Mohammed al-Bashir under the guidance of Military Operations Administration leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, must navigate a landscape marked by decades of authoritarian rule and devastating conflict.
The countdown began following the opposition factions' swift "Deterrence of Aggression" operation in late November, culminating in Assad's departure on December 8. Al-Sharaa, a dominant figure in the transition, outlined a three-phase plan: establishing the current interim government (until March 1, 2025), convening a national conference to address constitutional matters and form an advisory council, and eventually holding elections – a complex prospect given widespread displacement and lack of documentation.
Enab Baladi highlights the catastrophic economic situation as a primary obstacle. With a GDP plummeting from $62 billion in 2010 to just $8 billion in 2023 and poverty rates exceeding 90%, the caretaker government confronts widespread deprivation. Fuel shortages cripple industry and daily life. Initial steps include canceling burdensome Assad-era regulations, liberalizing imports, unifying exchange rates, and signaling a move towards a free-market economy. However, canceling subsidies, like the "smart card" for bread, has led to immediate price hikes, raising concerns about further impoverishing the population. Promises of significant salary increases (300-400%) have been made, but experts cited by Enab Baladi debate the timing and feasibility, emphasizing the immediate need to secure bread and fuel.
Politically, the government faces international scrutiny. Key challenges include seeking the removal of Western sanctions imposed on the Assad regime and navigating the international designation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group al-Sharaa leads, as a terrorist organization. While al-Sharaa calls for lifting both, arguing that HTS is not terrorist and sanctions punished a departed tyrant, the international response is cautious. The US, while stopping its reward for al-Sharaa and holding initial talks describing him as "pragmatic," stresses that delisting and sanctions relief depend on demonstrable actions towards inclusivity, human rights, and preventing terrorist threats. Other nations echo this conditional approach. Internally, managing relations with the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), led by the SDF, presents another complex political and security dilemma, with calls for dialogue meeting assertions that Syria will not be fragmented.
On the security front, Enab Baladi notes the caretaker government's promises to hold Assad-era criminals accountable, dissolve notorious security forces, and establish order. However, isolated incidents of chaos, theft, and killings persist. The administration is moving to establish police forces and is considering a volunteer army over mandatory conscription. Experts stress the need to control executions, properly document evidence from mass graves and prisons – inviting human rights groups promptly – and carefully integrate former soldiers while ensuring security isn't compromised.
Enab Baladi suggests that the success of this fragile 90-day period hinges on the caretaker government's ability to balance immediate humanitarian needs with structural reforms, foster internal inclusivity, and achieve a degree of harmony with regional and international players, whose cooperation is crucial for stability and eventual reconstruction.