A Lack of Coherence and Realism
Tan's central thesis is that Turkey is navigating a "tangle of contradictory domestic and foreign policies," lacking integration, consistency, rationality, and realism. He asserts that this approach fails to safeguard national interests and is instead "swayed by daily winds." This inconsistency, he argues, permeates Turkey's relations with key regional and global actors.
Inconsistent Stances: Israel and Syria
Tan points to Turkey's policy towards Israel as a prime example of this incoherence. He notes the abrupt disappearance of previously intense government propaganda warning of an Israeli invasion, contrasting it with the current situation where harsh domestic rhetoric against Israel ("flames pouring from their mouths") coexists with a more cautious, balanced tone ("blowing on the yogurt") intended for international audiences, such as Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's recent interviews. Tan suggests this duality fails to mask the underlying policy confusion, especially under a "one-man rule" where only President Erdogan's pronouncements hold weight.
Similarly, Tan highlights contradictions in Turkey's Syria policy. While Minister Fidan publicly states that "Syria belongs to the Syrians" and they are free to make their arrangements, Tan questions why Ankara simultaneously perceives specific potential governance structures in Syria as threats. He notes the apparent failure of rumored Turkish plans to establish military bases in Syria, which were swiftly rendered unusable by Israeli airstrikes, questioning Turkey's ability to project power or defend its perceived interests there. Furthermore, he points to internal Syrian reconciliation efforts (between Shara/Abdi and SDG/ENKS) and even joint patrols between Syrian government forces and the SDF, suggesting developments are proceeding somewhat independently of Ankara's influence. Tan also observes other regional shifts, such as Central Asian states opening embassies in the Republic of Cyprus and France, Greece, and Cyprus engaging in coordination meetings with Syria's new leadership, potentially marginalizing Turkish positions.
Navigating US and EU Relations
According to Tan, relations with the United States under the Trump administration are also fraught with challenges. Despite recent high-level contacts, including Fidan's visit to Washington, Tan sees little concrete progress. He argues Ankara struggles to reconcile its sharp criticism of Israel with the Trump administration's unwavering focus on Israeli security. Given the transactional ("retail," "piece-by-piece") approach of both Erdogan and Trump, Tan questions what Turkey can offer to remain an "indispensable ally" amid these fundamental disagreements.
Tan believes Turkey missed a potential opportunity to leverage shifts in the European security landscape to mend ties with the European Union. Instead, he observes a pivot towards Trump, whom he suggests might be indifferent to Turkey's democratic backsliding. Tan asserts that domestic political actions, such as the alleged moves against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, have further strained relations with Europe, making even pragmatic cooperation difficult. This highlights the need for a balanced approach that takes into account both domestic and international factors in shaping Turkey's foreign relations.
"Dream Works" Replacing Foreign Policy
Ultimately, Tan paints a picture of a Turkish foreign policy apparatus adrift, lacking a clear strategic vision and struggling to adapt to a rapidly changing regional and global environment. He concludes that the entanglement of inconsistent policies, driven by short-term reactions and domestic political calculations, has led to a situation where thoughtful foreign policy has given way to '"dream works,'" detached from grounded reality and the nation's long-term interests.