A growing divergence between the United States and Israel regarding Iran's nuclear program is significantly benefiting Tehran, according to recent reports and expert analysis. Citing information from The New York Times and The Jerusalem Post, alongside insights from Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) researcher Beni Sabti (as reported by Peled Arbeli) and analysis by Yonah Jeremy Bob, the situation indicates a US preference for negotiation under President Trump is creating an advantage for the Islamic Republic, raising deep concerns in Israel.
The analysis follows a report published last week by The New York Times claiming President Trump personally intervened to block a planned Israeli military strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. The report suggested Trump favored pursuing renewed negotiations aimed at limiting, rather than eliminating, Iran's nuclear capabilities. Reacting to this, Iran expert Beni Sabti stated Sunday that Tehran views this division as highly advantageous. "A rift between Israel and the United States is the best thing that could happen for them," Sabti said. He noted Iran's relative silence on the leak, interpreting it as tacit confirmation and satisfaction. "They're simply enjoying it and staying silent... Israel is pushing toward a certain path, and the United States has become Iran's advocate, blocking that path."
Sabti observed a shift in Iranian confidence following the US election. Initial "fear" and "psychological pressure" have given way to feeling "emboldened," he argued. "[Trump] doesn't speak against the regime itself at all, so they feel empowered and believe they can move forward with minimal concessions." Consequently, Sabti concluded that Iran entered the current negotiations "feeling that they have the upper hand." He did, however, note a stark contrast between the regime's position and the sentiment among the Iranian public, many of whom, he suggested, desire harsher measures against the regime and its nuclear program.
Adding urgency to Israeli concerns, The Jerusalem Post learned that a secret meeting Friday in Paris between Mossad Director David Barnea, Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, and US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff seemingly failed to sway the US negotiator from his current course. Israel had hoped to influence Witkoff before the second round of Iran nuclear talks, held Saturday in Rome. Dermer, a close Netanyahu confidant, and Barnea, respected by both recent US administrations, were deployed in this effort.
However, Iran's optimistic reaction to the talks and the scheduling of a third round suggest the Israeli arguments did not fundamentally alter the US trajectory. There is "deep concern" in Jerusalem, according to the Post, that Witkoff and President Trump may not fully grasp the technical details deemed critical by Israel, particularly concerning uranium enrichment levels, advanced centrifuges, and ballistic missile capabilities necessary for delivering a nuclear weapon.
This contrasts with past instances where Israeli intelligence briefings, sometimes delivered personally by Mossad chiefs like Barnea or his predecessor Yossi Cohen, successfully convinced US officials to adopt more rigid stances during negotiations, occasionally leading to their breakdown. Despite these precedents, the Trump administration appears determined to secure a deal it can portray as an improvement over the 2015 JCPOA, even if it falls short of Israeli red lines.
Faced with a potential US-Iran deal perceived as inadequate, many Israeli officials reportedly favor military action, believing a unique window of opportunity exists following the successful degradation of Iran's air defenses in October 2024 and the weakening of its regional proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.