"Even small steps can alleviate tensions and maintain a sense of cautious optimism for future negotiations," emphasized a recent analysis by the pro-government Turkish think tank SETA. The analysis underscored the positive momentum in Turkish-Greek relations and highlighted the importance of confidence-building measures at this stage of the Cyprus issue.
One key issue remains the conflicting positions of the main stakeholders. The internationally unrecognized TRNC and Turkey have grown increasingly skeptical of federal models, citing wasted time and a lack of willingness from the Greek Cypriot side. Instead, they suggest a solution built on equal sovereignty, which the internationally recognized Greek Cypriot Administration fundamentally rejects. As a result, formal negotiations have repeatedly stalled, and despite Guterres's attempts, the chasm has only widened. Observers note that the Geneva meeting, in which leaders were once again aligned with their previously stated positions, yielded no new roadmap toward a comprehensive settlement.
Nonetheless, the Geneva talks spotlight a subtle shift in the regional atmosphere. Turkey and Greece, after a period of significant tensions, embarked on a path toward repairing relations in 2023. The two nations continue to maintain their core stances on territorial and political disputes but have, for the time being, focused on positive areas of engagement rather than on their persistent disagreements. This improved climate likely contributed to the Geneva gathering, wherein Ankara and Athens encouraged dialogue between the Cypriot sides, emphasizing confidence-building measures (CBMs) and the necessity of continued communication.
Although no breakthrough emerged, attendees agreed to accelerate certain CBMs, such as potential mine clearance operations, new border crossings, and forming a youth cooperation technical committee. Additionally, UN Secretary-General Guterres may appoint a personal representative to sustain dialogue, and the leaders tentatively plan to reconvene in July. Critics view the outcomes as modest, arguing that the Greek Cypriot side did not warmly receive the Turkish Cypriot offer of deeper cooperation, including forming a comprehensive cooperation council. Still, proponents of dialogue underscore that even minor steps can reduce tensions and preserve cautious optimism for future rounds of talks.
SETA (Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research) is a pro-government Turkish think tank that provides in-depth analysis and policy recommendations on domestic and international issues, including foreign affairs, security, and regional conflicts.
Photo: SETA