The collective stance of gulf monarchies, including Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman, in addition to the states above, is explicit. They have warned the US against launching attacks on Iran from their soil or skies, as reported by Middle East Eye. This unified position raises serious questions about the future of extensive US-basing agreements in the region, which have historically provided Washington with crucial strategic positioning.
US Adjusts Military Posture
The immediate consequence of this refusal appears to be a strategic adjustment by the US military. According to Middle East Eye, the decision to amass B-2 bombers at the US base on Diego Garcia, an island territory in the Indian Ocean, is seen as a direct result of Gulf Arab monarchs closing their airspace to American warplanes for potential operations against Iran.
Fear of Retaliation Drives Decision
The primary driver behind the Gulf states' position is their fear of Iranian retaliation. Leaders in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and other Gulf capitals are reportedly bracing for potential Iranian counter-strikes against their critical infrastructure, particularly valuable oil facilities, should their territories be implicated in US military action. This fear underscores the gravity of the situation and has pushed them towards a policy of neutrality.
Diplomatic Maneuvers and Iranian Warnings
In recent diplomatic efforts, Gulf Arab states met in Doha to reassure Iran of their neutrality concerning the ongoing shadow conflict between Tehran and Israel. This 'shadow conflict' refers to the indirect and often covert nature of the hostilities between Iran and Israel, which have been ongoing for years. These meetings highlight the Gulf nations' desire to avoid being drawn into a broader escalation that could destabilize the region and threaten their economies. Explicit warnings from Tehran amplify their concerns. An Iranian official cautioned that any Gulf state permitting the use of its territory or airspace for attacks against Iran would provoke a response, Reuters reported.
Regional Tensions and Policy Considerations
This development unfolds against persistent US-Iran friction and complex regional dynamics, including the ongoing Iran-Saudi proxy conflict. This conflict, which involves both countries supporting opposing sides in regional conflicts, has been a significant factor in the region's instability. Discussions within US policy circles about potential military options against Iran, possibly related to its nuclear program, have been noted. However, the reluctance of traditional Gulf partners to facilitate such actions introduces significant constraints.
Calculated Neutrality Limits US Options
The unified message from these Gulf nations underscores a calculated effort to insulate themselves from a direct US-Iran conflict. By denying access for offensive operations, they are signaling a clear limit to their security cooperation with Washington when it involves potential direct hostilities with their powerful neighbor across the Gulf. This could force a possible reassessment of US military strategy in the region, potentially leading to a shift in focus or tactics.