Sources indicate President Trump is keen on securing a new nuclear deal with Iran. This ambition led to recent talks in Oman, a move reportedly announced during a strained meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. While Netanyahu publicly expressed confidence that Trump would secure a strong deal dismantling Iran's nuclear capabilities, akin to the 2003 Libya agreement, which led to the dismantling of Libya's nuclear program, deep concerns reportedly exist within the Israeli government.
The primary fear gripping Israel's diplomatic circles is that Trump, driven by a desire for a diplomatic victory, might settle for a 'mediocre or bad' agreement that fails to eliminate the perceived Iranian nuclear threat. Israel feels it has little leverage to influence the outcome and may be forced to quietly accept a deal it deems insufficient, fearing repercussions from Washington. Consequently, Israel is left to observe the negotiations, with Netanyahu likely hoping the talks fail.
Simultaneously, Witkoff is mediating efforts to achieve a ceasefire and hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Pressure is mounting, potentially linked to an upcoming presidential visit to Saudi Arabia. While a new Egyptian proposal is under discussion, Hamas insists on guarantees for a permanent end to hostilities and complete Israeli withdrawal – demands that Netanyahu, under significant domestic political pressure, faces the dilemma of accepting or rejecting.
Between these parallel negotiations managed by an understaffed and unpredictable US administration, Israel remains in a holding pattern, preparing for multiple potential outcomes but powerless primarily to shape them.