The move follows allegations of a foiled plot linked to the Brotherhood, with confessions aired on state television implicating the group in efforts to manufacture weapons under the direction of a cell leader in Lebanon. While the Muslim Brotherhood has not officially commented on the ban, this is not the first attempt to curb its influence—Jordan's top court ordered its dissolution in 2020, though the decree was not enforced at the time. The Brotherhood, founded in Egypt in 1928 to Islamize Arab societies, has a significant presence across the region but is outlawed in countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt. Its historical ties to Turkey and Qatar contrast with its strained relations with other Arab states.
Ghaith al-Omari, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Al-Monitor that the alleged plot was the "immediate cause" for the ban, viewed by the government as crossing a critical threshold. He noted that since Hamas' October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, which ignited the Gaza war, the Brotherhood has openly aligned with Hamas, praising its leaders and supporting protests that challenged Jordanian authorities. Demonstrations outside the Israeli Embassy in Amman and attempted marches to the border have been deemed "red lines" by the government, heightening tensions.
Middle East analyst Aaron Magid echoed this sentiment, highlighting King Abdullah II's deep-seated distrust of the Brotherhood, whom he once called "wolves in sheep's clothing" in a 2013 interview with The Atlantic. Magid, currently writing a biography on the king, emphasized that the ban aims to curb large-scale protests demanding the annulment of Jordan's peace treaty with Israel and to prevent domestic unrest reminiscent of the 1970 Black September conflict. However, he cautioned that suppressing a legal Islamist opposition could drive dissent underground, potentially fostering violent resistance.
The ban's impact on the Islamic Action Front, the Brotherhood's political affiliate and the largest party in Jordan's parliament, remains unclear. While the ban does not officially target the party, authorities raided its offices, and there is speculation about demands to sever ties with the Brotherhood. Omari noted that dissolving the Front would be legally complex, requiring judicial and electoral approval, but the current pressure signals a broader crackdown.
Regionally, the ban aligns Jordan with Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, who have long opposed the Brotherhood, while possibly straining ties with Qatar and Turkey. The decision was announced during King Abdullah's visit to Saudi Arabia, reflecting domestic priorities over foreign policy, though it risks complicating Jordan's balancing act in a volatile region. As Magid warned, eliminating legal avenues for Islamist expression could destabilize the kingdom, posing a dangerous gamble for Amman amidst ongoing regional tensions.