El-Shinawy highlights specific examples of perceived American wavering. Reports suggesting the Pentagon might scale back military expansion in Japan raise questions about US commitment in the Indo-Pacific, especially amidst tensions with Beijing. Similarly, shifting political winds and isolationist rhetoric in Washington cast doubt on the long-term military and financial support for Ukraine. Former President Trump's remarks urging Kyiv to negotiate are presented as a stark departure from previous steadfast backing, potentially creating an existential crisis for Ukraine and a strategic advantage for Moscow. Russia, the author notes, keenly observes this hesitation, seeing it as an opportunity not only in Ukraine but potentially across Eastern Europe, emboldening its ambitions if US commitments weaken.
Conversely, China is portrayed as operating with a clear, long-term vision. Beijing views Washington's indecisiveness as an opportunity to expand its influence rapidly with less resistance. This is evident in increased Chinese military activity in the Indo-Pacific (South China Sea, Senkaku Islands) and the expansion of its naval and aerial power while the US debates potential drawdowns. The core contrast is China's strategic consistency versus America's tactical hesitation.
The long-term consequences, El-Shinawy warns, could be severe for US alliances. If key partners like Japan, Taiwan, and Ukraine doubt American reliability, they might seek alternative security arrangements, potentially leading to a fundamental realignment of the global order favoring China. These ripple effects extend beyond Asia and Europe, with nations in the Middle East (like Saudi Arabia and the UAE) already diversifying relationships and strengthening ties with Beijing and Moscow. The piece concludes by questioning whether Washington will recognize the dangers of disengagement and reaffirm its leadership or continue a trajectory that suggests the era of undisputed American dominance is waning.
Photo: Daily News Egypt