The famine risk analysis, conducted by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC report), is carried out periodically by experts from about fifteen United Nations agencies, international organizations, and associations. These experts rely on field data and feedback from partners and follow a five-level food crisis classification scale.
The latest figures, covering the period from April 1 to May 10, estimate that 93% of Gaza's population, or 1.95 million individuals, are facing stage 3, known as a food crisis, or worse. Among them, 1 million people are in an emergency (stage 4), and half a million, or 22%, are in a catastrophe (stage 5, where hunger and malnutrition pose a mortal risk). In the previous IPC report, published in October 2024, only 12% of the population was classified as stage 5. "It's one of the worst food crises in the world," Beth Bechdol, Deputy Director-General of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), told Le Monde.
Alarming Scenes
Since the siege imposed on Gaza by Israeli authorities on March 2, humanitarians on the ground describe alarming scenes: "Families wasting away from hunger, malnourished children too weak to cry, and entire communities surviving without food or drinking water," lists Mahmoud Alsaqqa, Oxfam's food security coordinator, in a statement. "In one displaced persons camp, only five out of 500 families still had a little flour to make bread." Since late February, food prices for wheat flour have reached inconceivable levels – up to +3,000%.
"People are fainting in the street. They are just skin and bones," describes Areej, a humanitarian worker with the NGO Mercy Corps, whose testimony was collected in early May by the organization. "Believe me, people no longer care about bombs, rockets, or even death. What obsesses them now is food. How to find it, how to feed their children." Families cook tree leaves to make soup for their children, others grind pasta into flour to make bread, or directly consume the little animal feed available.
If nothing changes on the ground in the very short term, international agencies assert that the onset of famine will not be a possibility but a certainty. The declaration of famine is a process constantly re-evaluated by IPC partner organizations, based on three criteria: that at least 20% of a population faces an extreme lack of food (which is confirmed in Gaza), that one-third of children suffer from acute malnutrition, and that a daily mortality rate of 2 adults or four children per 10,000 people, directly linked to hunger or malnutrition, is observed. "For these last two criteria, the data we have points in this direction, but does not allow us to declare a famine at this stage," specifies Beth Bechdol. "We must be very rigorous in our approach. But regardless, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is unprecedented."
Restoring the agricultural sector
Faced with this extreme emergency, international organizations call for an immediate ceasefire and the large-scale restoration of access to humanitarian aid and goods. "Every day of delay worsens hunger and accelerates famine, bringing us even closer to the worst," warns Qu Dongyu, FAO Director-General, in a statement. The urgent need is to allow distributions of food, water, and medicine, primarily to the most vulnerable (children, pregnant women, the elderly, or the sick).
But the scale of destruction also calls for fundamental actions to restore, among other things, the agricultural fabric of the Gaza Strip. Before October 2023, the territory was largely self-sufficient with 40% arable land, including orchards, greenhouses, and fields. "The food system has completely collapsed in Gaza," notes Beth Bechdol. "At least 75% of agricultural land is destroyed – today, it's likely well beyond that – and in livestock, the losses are catastrophic."
According to the FAO, 97% of cattle and 99% of laying hens and chickens have perished. Among livestock, sheep and goats have been more resilient and continue to provide vital aid to families who still own animals, bringing them their only source of protein: most often one or two glasses of milk per day. Before the new blockade, the FAO had distributed just over 2,000 tons of animal feed and veterinary kits to Gazan farmers in recent months. The organization is ready to deploy more aid once humanitarian access is restored.