The assassination has dramatically altered Tripoli's security landscape, creating a power vacuum that various factions struggle to fill. Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabeiba attempted to use this moment to declare an end to "parallel security systems" and ordered a restructuring of security forces, framing the killing as evidence that the state was regaining control. However, his move appears to have backfired, revealing the fragility of his government's authority.
Dabeiba's government, which has been criticized for reinforcing a kleptocracy based on corruption, now faces mounting pressure from multiple directions. Anti-government demonstrations have erupted across the capital, with protesters explicitly calling for the fall of the GNU. These protests highlight the population's deep frustration with a political system widely perceived as illegitimate and unsustainable.
"Libya's protests are a loud reminder of the illegitimacy of its political system, the population's frustration, and the precariousness of a status quo that many international actors long to be sustainable," notes Tarek Megerisi, Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, as quoted in ISPI's analysis.
The situation is further complicated by the role of the Government of National Stability (GNS) in eastern Libya, which has refrained from direct involvement while supporting calls for the GNU's resignation. Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who controls the east, appears to be weakening Tripoli from within through disinformation, civil disobedience, and sabotage rather than direct military confrontation.
Foreign powers continue to exert significant influence over Libya's trajectory. Turkey supports the Tripoli-based government, while Egypt and Russia back the eastern administration. This international dimension extends beyond diplomatic support to include military presence and economic interests, with Turkish mercenaries operating in Tripolitania and Russian forces, notably the Africa Corps, maintaining a presence in Cyrenaica.
The UN-led peace process remains deadlocked amid this turmoil. According to Jalel Harchaoui, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, any UN initiative must address Libya's "multi-dimensional crisis," prioritizing preventing a civil war "potentially more destructive than all prior episodes."
The resilience of Libya's militias, despite government attempts to curtail their power, suggests that the country's path to stability remains uncertain. As Claudia Gazzini, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group, observes, "Armed groups remain resilient and will fight back to keep control of their turf even at the cost of triggering the worst fighting the capital has seen in years."
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