A government source confirmed that imports have already begun to address the significant shortfall. Hassan Othman, Director of the General Organization for Grains, informed Syria TV that the institution has contracted to import 100,000 tons of wheat, which is "currently on its way to the country," with an additional 100,000 tons under negotiation. Othman attributed the crisis to a "wave of drought affecting the country this year, making the current wheat season the worst in several years," and controversially added that the "significant decline in production is due to the corrupt policies of the regime, leading to increased reliance on imports to achieve food security."
Agricultural experts echo the bleak outlook. Anas Rahmoun, an agrarian engineer, described the current year as "one of the terrible wheat seasons" due to low rainfall, increased irrigation costs, high fuel prices, and the rising cost of agricultural inputs like pesticides and fertilizers. Speaking to Syria TV, Rahmoun noted that rain-fed wheat, which requires approximately 300mm of rainfall, has suffered immensely as this threshold was not met in any rain-fed wheat cultivation areas. Consequently, "vast areas of wheat have been lost this season due to drought, particularly in regions like Saraqib, Ma'arrat al-Nu'man, and Khan Shaykhun." He elaborated that most rain-fed lands in secondary and tertiary stability zones are "completely out of the production record." However, a sliver of hope remains for about a quarter of the usual yield in "first stability zones" such as Sahl al-Rouj and parts of the western Aleppo countryside.
Ministry of Agriculture estimates paint a grim picture, indicating the "agricultural situation for wheat is very difficult," with current available quantities sufficient for "only a few months." Import options considered include Romanian, Russian, and Ukrainian wheat, with prices to be determined in coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture, the Farmers' Union, the General Organization for Grains, the Ministry of Economy, and the Prime Minister's office.
However, securing these imports has not been without challenges. Reuters reported that an international tender floated by the Syrian government to import around 100,000 tons of milling wheat, which closed last April, failed, with no purchase made by the state procurement agency. The tender had stipulated delivery within 45 days of contracting. Despite this setback, traders anticipate that Syria may issue a new tender soon. This contrasts with a previous tender on March 25th, where Syria successfully purchased an estimated 100,000 tons of wheat, believed to be its first major purchase since a governmental change late last year.
Over a decade of conflict has severely undermined Syria's agricultural sector. A 2024 study by the Jusoor Center for Studies highlighted the decline in cultivated areas for various crops since 2010. Wheat cultivation, for instance, saw a slight decrease from 1.599 million hectares in 2010 to 1.567 million hectares in 2021. For 2023, the planned area was 1.493 million hectares, but only about 536,000 hectares were cultivated in regime-controlled areas – roughly one-third of the national plan. The study attributes this to clashes, shelling leading to land neglect or burning, farmer casualties and displacement, reduced government support for many crops, and the adverse impacts of climate change and natural disasters.