Shahbazov's visit as Deputy Prime Minister to Damascus highlighted high-level political engagement and underscored Azerbaijan's growing interest in Syria's northeastern energy infrastructure. Drawing from its experience with similar post-conflict investments in Iraq and Libya, Azerbaijan's national oil company, SOCAR, is actively exploring reconstruction opportunities in Syria's damaged oil and gas sectors.
Baku is establishing itself as a diplomatic intermediary between Israel and Turkey. In Syria's complex geopolitical landscape, this dual approach positions Azerbaijan as a potential diplomatic and economic partner.
Triangulation in Strategy
The strategic ties between Azerbaijan, Israel, and Turkey form the foundation of Azerbaijan's approach to Syria. Joint energy initiatives, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, have strengthened these alliances and created a triangle of mutual interest extending into Syria. Israel provides essential security and technological expertise, particularly valuable in countering Iranian influence in the region. Meanwhile, Turkey offers Azerbaijan significant geopolitical backing.
According to local commentators, Azerbaijan's growing influence in Syria may act as a unifying factor, assisting in resolving the sometimes competing interests of Ankara and Tel Aviv, particularly in strategically important areas close to Palmyra that are important for Israeli security concerns. This could shift the balance of power in the region, with Azerbaijan emerging as a key player in Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Difficulties in Influencing
Despite its ambitious regional agenda, Azerbaijan faces significant challenges in Syria. Formal investment opportunities in state-controlled Syrian sectors are severely restricted due to the extensive sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union. Furthermore, long-term investment commitments are greatly hindered by Syria's economic volatility, characterized by currency collapse and ongoing security risks. These challenges evoke a sense of empathy towards Azerbaijan's efforts.
Additionally, Azerbaijan faces technological constraints since its enterprises lack specialized knowledge in vital fields like oilfield decontamination, which are now dominated by Western businesses with cutting-edge environmental remediation technologies.
The Use of Energy as Diplomatic Money
Like China's strategic involvement in Africa and Russia's energy-based influence operations in Libya, Azerbaijan's strategy follows well-established trends in international energy diplomacy. Despite Syria's relatively small proven gas reserves, Baku seems more interested in becoming a logistical partner and transit hub than concentrating only on resource exploitation.
Azerbaijan's approach enhances its geopolitical significance and aligns with its broader regional objective of serving as an energy corridor. Turkey recognizes the potential benefits of having a trustworthy ally operating in sensitive regions where direct intervention would be problematic. Thus, it has strategically supported Azerbaijan's involvement in Syria, fostering a sense of optimism about its impact.
Through this blend of energy diplomacy and discreet mediation, Azerbaijan strategically assesses its influence in Syria. Its success depends on its capacity to maneuver through sanctions, regional instability, and the complex network of rivalries among major powers invested in Syria's future. The potential benefits of this strategy include enhanced regional influence and economic opportunities, but it also carries significant risks, such as geopolitical tensions and financial instability.