The legal proceedings themselves reveal the hollowness of Tunisia's judicial independence. Defendants were denied physical presence in the courtroom, observers were barred mainly from attendance, and the actual hearings lasted mere minutes without opportunity for defense statements or cross-examinations. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has rightfully condemned these verdicts as a setback to justice and the rule of law. At the same time, the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has explicitly labeled the detentions as arbitrary.
This political repression occurs against a backdrop of severe economic deterioration. With 89% of Tunisians rating their financial situation as "bad" or "very bad," the country faces a five-year drought, crumbling public services, and spiraling inflation. Rather than implementing structural reforms, Saied's government has doubled domestic borrowing to $7 billion in 2025. It increasingly relies on Algerian support, creating dangerous dependencies that compromise Tunisia's sovereignty and long-term stability.
The recently passed labor law further illustrates the government's contradictory approach to governance. While ostensibly protecting workers by restricting subcontracting and favoring permanent employment, the legislation was developed without meaningful consultation with the Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT). Industry representatives warn of potential mass layoffs and negative impacts on foreign investment due to the law's ambiguities, suggesting that policy implementation may occur without adequate stakeholder engagement or economic foresight.
Internationally, Saied has pivoted away from traditional Western partnerships toward Russia and China, though these relationships remain more symbolic than substantive. Meanwhile, the European Union has prioritized migration control over democratic principles, designating Tunisia as a "safe country" for asylum returns despite mounting evidence of human rights abuses. This approach has inadvertently strengthened Saied's hand, allowing him to leverage migration fears for financial support while resisting meaningful reforms.
Perhaps most disturbing is the government's scapegoating of vulnerable populations. New laws criminalizing NGO aid to migrants and the president's inflammatory rhetoric have fueled racist violence against Black Africans. Tunisia's withdrawal from the African Court on Human Rights in March 2025 further removes avenues for accountability, creating a dangerous environment for minorities.
Despite these challenges, resistance persists through street protests and civil society activism, though tempered by a pervasive sense of nihilism. Without concerted international pressure linking economic support to democratic reforms and human rights protections, Tunisia risks sliding further into chronic instability characterized by deepening poverty, social conflict, and rising criminality. The international community, particularly the European Union, must recognize that short-term migration management at the expense of democratic principles will ultimately produce greater regional instability and humanitarian crises.
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
Sources:
Border bargains only borrow time: How Europe can stop its Tunisia rot | ECFR
https://ecfr.eu/article/border-bargains-only-borrow-time-how-europe-can-stop-its-tunisia-rot/
Tunisia’s Parliament approves disputed labour law | IndustriALL
https://www.industriall-union.org/tunisias-parliament-approves-disputed-labour-law
Tunisia’s Parliament approves disputed labour law | IndustriALL
https://www.industriall-union.org/tunisias-parliament-approves-disputed-labour-law