While Israeli leaders have not yet made a final decision, significant internal disagreement reportedly exists within the US government regarding the ultimate likelihood of such an Israeli strike. CNN notes that any unilateral Israeli action would constitute "a brazen break with President Donald Trump" and carries the severe risk of triggering a broader regional conflict. The scope and timing of any potential strike are said to be heavily influenced by Jerusalem's assessment of ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations. One source cited by CNN indicated that the "chance of an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has gone up significantly in recent months," especially if a Trump-negotiated deal fails to remove all of Iran's enriched uranium.
US intelligence concerns are reportedly fueled by a combination of public and private messaging from senior Israeli officials, intercepted communications, and observed Israeli military movements, including air munitions transfers and completed air exercises. However, these movements could also be interpreted as a strategic pressure tactic designed to compel Iran to abandon critical aspects of its nuclear program.
Analysts suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finds Israel "between a rock and a hard place." He faces the delicate balance of preventing a US-Iran deal that Israel deems unsatisfactory without alienating the Trump administration. Despite Israel's expressed willingness to act independently if an agreement is unacceptable, experts highlight Israel's limited capacity to fully dismantle Iran's deep-seated nuclear program without crucial US support, such as mid-air refueling and bunker-penetrating ordnance. Nevertheless, an Israeli source indicated that a strike might specifically aim to scuttle a perceived "bad deal" negotiated by Trump, a sentiment Israel has reportedly communicated to US officials. This reflects profound Israeli concerns that Washington might settle for a "mediocre" nuclear agreement.