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Turkey today issued urgent calls for de-escalation and expressed grave concern following news of extensive Israeli airstrikes targeting high-level military and nuclear facilities in Iran, including near the capital, Tehran. The pre-dawn attacks, reportedly codenamed "Operation Rising Lion" by Israel and resulting in significant Iranian military casualties, have dramatically escalated tensions across an already volatile Middle East, prompting Ankara to closely monitor the unfolding crisis and its profound implications for regional stability and Turkish interests.
The Israeli offensive, long anticipated by regional analysts, immediately thrust Turkey into a complex diplomatic and strategic calculus. According to Mehmet Öğütçü, "Israel's attack on Iran was expected for some time. The attack has increased tension in the Middle East. The Israel-Iran conflict means new tests for Turkey." Öğütçü's analysis highlights that the strikes, which reportedly killed senior Iranian military figures, including the Revolutionary Guards Commander, were aimed at what Israel perceives as an "existential threat" from Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Turkish officials have emphasized the critical need for all parties to exercise maximum restraint. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is reportedly engaged in urgent consultations with his national security advisors.
Ankara's primary concerns revolve around the immediate economic and security repercussions. As a major energy importer heavily reliant on regional stability, Turkey braces for a potential surge in oil prices – Öğütçü's analysis points to an immediate 10% jump. It warns of prices potentially hitting $150 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is affected. This would place immense pressure on Turkey's economy, exacerbating inflation and impacting its current account deficit. Furthermore, the proximity of the conflict raises security concerns along Turkey's borders and for its trade routes through the Gulf.
Historically, Turkey has strived to maintain a delicate balancing act in its relations with both Iran, a significant neighbor and energy partner, and Israel, with whom relations have been gradually normalizing. This new crisis severely tests that equilibrium. Ankara may seek to leverage its unique position and communication channels with both Tehran and Tel Aviv to offer mediation, similar to its role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, Öğütçü notes that such efforts would be complex, influenced by sectarian dynamics and Turkey's internal political considerations, and would likely necessitate further normalization with Israel to be effective.
The rapidly evolving situation presents both significant risks and potential, albeit challenging, opportunities for Turkish foreign policy. As the international community scrambles to respond, Ankara is carefully weighing its options, acutely aware that the shockwaves from the Israeli-Iranian clashes will inevitably reshape the Middle Eastern landscape.