As missiles streak across Middle Eastern skies and diplomatic channels strain under mounting pressure, Azerbaijan finds itself in an increasingly precarious position—caught between its strategic partnership with Israel and its complex relationship with neighboring Iran. The small Caucasus nation's delicate balancing act has become even more challenging as the Iran-Israel conflict enters a dangerous new phase, forcing Baku to walk a diplomatic tightrope that could determine its regional standing for years to come.
This analysis draws from reporting by Aynur Abbassoy, published on the Modern Diplomacy, examining Azerbaijan's strategic positioning amid escalating regional tensions.
Conflict Reaches Azerbaijan's Doorstep
The current crisis began on June 13 when Israel launched comprehensive strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. For Azerbaijan, the conflict's proximity became starkly apparent when residents of the Nakhchivan enclave witnessed Israeli rockets passing through their airspace over the Julfa district. The strikes particularly affected Iran's East Azerbaijan Province, including ethnic Azerbaijani-majority areas like Tabriz, Maragheh, and Bostan Abad—regions with deep cultural ties to Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan's challenge stems from its unique position in regional geopolitics. The country maintains close strategic ties with Israel while sharing a border and ethnic connections with Iran, where millions of ethnic Azerbaijanis reside. This dual relationship has historically been a source of tension with Tehran, which views Azerbaijan's Israel partnership with suspicion and considers Baku's influence among Iranian Azerbaijanis a potential existential threat.
Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran have experienced significant fluctuations, particularly following Azerbaijan's victory in the 44-day Nagorno-Karabakh war, which enhanced Turkey's regional influence and strained Iranian-Azerbaijani ties. The relationship hit a low point after an armed attack on Azerbaijan's Tehran embassy in January 2023, leading to the evacuation of diplomatic personnel.
Careful Diplomatic Response
Faced with this delicate situation, Azerbaijan has crafted a measured response aimed at avoiding alienation of either side. On June 13, Baku issued a carefully worded statement expressing "deep concern" about Israel's military operation while condemning violence without assigning blame to specific parties.
Most significantly, Azerbaijan firmly declared it would not allow any country to use its territory to strike third parties—a crucial message aimed at preventing either Iran or Israel from viewing Azerbaijani territory as a potential staging ground.
Azerbaijan has maintained close consultation with Turkey throughout the crisis, with the foreign ministers of both countries conducting telephone discussions to coordinate their positions. This coordination reflects the broader strategic partnership between Ankara and Baku, though each faces distinct challenges in the evolving regional landscape.
Azerbaijan's balanced approach distinguishes it from other regional responses—avoiding both European support for Israel's self-defense narrative and the stronger anti-Israeli language adopted by allies like Turkey and Pakistan. This positioning enables Azerbaijan to maintain its role as a regional stabilizer while potentially enhancing its strategic importance, particularly in terms of energy security, as infrastructure damage raises the value of alternative suppliers.
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