The political scientist touches on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's ambitious goals, which may extend to regime change in Iran, a prospect Münkler views with skepticism. He also notes the weakening of international law, the rise of a multipolar world order, and Europe's diminished role as a "payer, not a player" on the geopolitical stage.
According to Münkler's interview in the Handelsblatt, the world is witnessing a dangerous confluence of factors. Münkler believes the conflict between Israel and Iran is set to be a long-term affair, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu aiming to establish a "new order" in the Middle East. This goes beyond merely destroying Iran's nuclear program, for which Israel is technologically dependent on US support, including bunker-busting bombs. Münkler speculates that Trump might only intervene militarily if US bases in Iran are attacked but that Tehran would be "clever" enough to avoid this, instead pressuring Trump to intervene for his self-regard.
While recent statements from the Israeli Premier suggest an aim for regime change in Iran, Münkler is skeptical about its realism, citing the increasingly "nationalist component" of the conflict, which he believes Israel underestimates. He also points to Iran's ambition for regional hegemony.
Münkler observes that international law has largely lost its binding force, with figures like Trump and Putin contributing to its disregard. In this vacuum, Netanyahu is seizing the opportunity to improve Israel's regional position significantly. While some might compare Netanyahu to a Churchillian figure for not appeasing an enemy set on Israel's destruction, Münkler points out that Israel is destroying not just nuclear facilities but also energy infrastructure and even media outlets in Iran. He acknowledges Netanyahu's "impressive" security policy record, citing various military "coups" and the weakening of Hezbollah and Hamas, but questions the long-term viability of purely military solutions, especially given the "enormous reputational loss" for Israel from the Gaza conflict.
The interview also explores Russia's role, with Münkler suggesting Moscow could offer Tehran nuclear technology in response to Western support for Ukraine. He describes a shift from a rule-based to a power-based global order, with the Ukraine war and other conflicts being precursors. Ironically, Münkler notes the US, the original guarantor of the post-war rules, is now often seen as a rule-breaker itself, contributing to an erosion of transatlantic trust that may be "irreversible."
Regarding Europe, Münkler reiterates the sentiment of former Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn, who has stated that Europe is a "payer, but not a player." He notes that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's comment about Netanyahu doing "dirty work" for Europe, while unluckily phrased, reflects a grim reality should Iran acquire nuclear weapons. Münkler gives Merz's crisis management cautious approval for avoiding significant errors and making some positive diplomatic overtures.
Finally, Münkler views leaders like Putin, Xi, and Netanyahu as strategically "superior" to Trump, whom he characterizes as an erratic, opportunistic figure driven by "deal-making" rather than complex strategic considerations.
About Herfried Münkler
Herfried Münkler, born on August 15, 1951, in Friedberg, Hesse, is a prominent German political scientist and professor of Political Theory at Humboldt University in Berlin. He has made significant contributions to the fields of political thought, state-building, and the theory of war. Münkler is well-known for his influential works, including "Empires: The Logic of World Domination from Ancient Rome to the United States" and "The New Wars," which explore the complexities of power dynamics and conflict in modern society.
Münkler's academic journey began at Goethe University Frankfurt, where he studied German, political science, and philosophy, ultimately earning his PhD. He has been a vocal commentator on global affairs in German media and has received accolades for his work, including the Leipzig Book Fair Prize in 2009 for "Die Deutschen und ihre Mythen." His insights continue to shape contemporary discussions on political theory and history.