Almost a week after a series of Israeli strikes commenced on Iranian soil on June 13, the status of several high-ranking commanders within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains uncertain. Speculation abounds regarding the physical well-being, disappearance, or unconfirmed deaths of key figures such as Esmaïl Ghaani, commander of the elite Quds Force; Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the IRGC Navy; and Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij territorial militias. Their notable absence from public statements and appearances since the hostilities began has fueled these concerns.
This sudden silence, coupled with the lack of new appointments to several vacant positions, raises serious questions about the true extent of human casualties within Iran’s military high command. While Israel claims to have eliminated approximately 20 high-ranking Iranian officials, Iranian authorities have acknowledged only about half of these losses, with no public funerals held for those reportedly killed. The initial wave of strikes on June 13 saw the deaths of several pillars of the Iranian military hierarchy, including Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces; Hossein Salami, IRGC Commander-in-Chief; Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the Aerospace Force; and Gholam Ali Rashid, head of the Khatam Al-Anbiya Central Headquarters. Notably, Ali Shadmani, appointed on June 17, was himself killed just four days later. These missing figures represented strategic segments of the Iranian military apparatus.
The intelligence sector has also suffered significant blows, with Mohammad Kazemi, chief of the IRGC intelligence organization, reportedly killed on June 15, leaving a strategic post vacant. In the scientific realm, the strikes claimed the life of Fereydoun Abbasi, former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, who had recently stated Iran possessed nuclear bomb technology for two decades. According to Ali Alfoneh, a researcher at the Arab Gulf States Institute who spoke to Le Monde, this series of targeted assassinations points to a “deep infiltration of Israeli intelligence into the Iranian defense apparatus” and exposes “counter-espionage failures within Iranian security services.” Alfoneh suggests Iranian intelligence, preoccupied with internal repression, failed to adapt to intensifying external threats, overlooking precedents like the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July 2024 and repeated eliminations of nuclear scientists. He adds that systemic corruption and popular discontent have further facilitated Israeli infiltration.
Institutionally, Alfoneh explains that the IRGC operates on a “quasi-collective leadership model with a decentralized command structure,” which, while reducing operational efficiency, enhances resilience against elimination operations. He notes that IRGC standard operating procedures have remained unchanged; despite the elimination of the aerospace force commander, Iran continued its ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israel. Alfoneh believes the primary challenge for Iranians lies not in the loss of high-ranking officials but rather in Israel’s “robust and layered missile defense architecture.” Amidst these developments, on June 18, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei released an unyielding pre-recorded video message, declaring, “The Iranian people firmly resist imposed war, just as they will firmly resist imposed peace. This people will not submit to any form of coercion.”
Adding to the escalating tensions, the Israeli army issued an evacuation order at dawn on June 19 for residents near the heavy water complex in Arak and Khondab. The warning, posted on its X account, urged immediate evacuation. However, Iran had cut off its citizens’ access to the global internet the day prior, rendering it impossible for many to view the warning, even with a VPN, highlighting severe information control measures during this volatile period.
Photo: Le Monde