Despite a series of assertive military actions across the Middle East, Israel's potential to establish itself as a regional hegemon is doubtful, according to a recent analysis by Stephen M. Walt, a distinguished foreign policy columnist and professor of international relations at Harvard University. Walt argues that while Israel has demonstrated considerable military prowess, achieving true regional dominance faces insurmountable obstacles.
According to the new article of Stephen M. Walt in Foreign Policy, a genuine regional hegemon is characterized by such overwhelming power that it faces no significant security threats from its neighbors and does not need to fear the emergence of a serious rival. Walt contends that Israel does not meet this standard, pointing to ongoing defiance from entities like the Houthis, its protracted engagement in Gaza, and the significant military capabilities of nations such as Iran and Turkey. These states, he suggests, could mount credible defenses and are unlikely to defer to Israeli interests.
Walt further elaborates that Israel's critical dependence on the United States for military, financial, and diplomatic support undermines any claim to hegemonic status, as a true hegemon does not rely on an external patron to maintain its position. He also highlights that the unresolved Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to be a fundamental source of instability, tarnishing Israel's global image and precluding the "free security" enjoyed by actual hegemons.
Moreover, the analysis posits that durable hegemony requires a degree of acceptance or, at the very least, acquiescence from neighboring states, often fostered by the hegemon acting with forbearance. Walt suggests this is not a characteristic of Israeli foreign policy, especially given current internal political dynamics. Ultimately, he concludes that long-term security for Israel will depend not on military dominance but on achieving a sustainable political settlement with its neighbors, including the Palestinians.
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