Speaking to the Kommersant, the analyst posits that the war is currently "on a knife's edge," where any unforeseen event or "black swan" could decisively alter the balance of power. He notes a critical distinction in operational capabilities: Tehran predominantly relies on its indigenously developed systems, whereas Israel leverages primarily American technology and the defensive mechanisms of regional allies and NATO structures. While acknowledging that Iran suffered a "deep knockdown" in the initial stages of hostilities due to what he describes as feigned negotiations, diversionary tactics, and damaging airstrikes, Asatryan cautions against overstating Tehran's losses. He argues that Iran made significant diplomatic and military errors early on.
However, he contends that even "genius Mossad operations," likely alluding to targeted assassinations of military leaders and scientists, did not achieve the debilitating effect anticipated by American and Israeli analysts. Iran's command and control systems, he suggests, were restored with relative speed. Such targeted killings are not new for Iran, which possesses a deep bench of replacements, including a larger pool of nuclear physicists than all other regional countries combined and numerous deputies for every military and IRGC commander.
Despite Israel and its coalition partners achieving air dominance over western Iran, Asatryan emphasizes Iran's vast geographical advantage – being 75 times larger than Israel. This allows eastern regions to remain largely untouched, serving as launchpads for ballistic missiles. Crucially, he points out that Iran's nuclear program has not yet been significantly impacted, and strikes on critical facilities in provinces like Qom and Isfahan have yielded limited results, suggesting that substantial damage would likely require direct US bomber involvement.
The RIAC expert further argues that the US and Israel have underestimated Iran's technological resources and the "stubbornness" of its regime. Contrary to Western propaganda depicting Iran as "backward" and "archaic," Asatryan asserts that Iran is not currently losing. He suggests that the coalition of "civilized" and "developed" nations has misjudged Iran's political-economic system and cultural specificities. What is perceived as "backwardness" and "archaism" has, in reality, become a source of strength. The very fact that the US has deployed three aircraft carriers to the region and maintains a significant strategic bomber presence at Diego Garcia, Asatryan implies, is a testament to the challenge Iran poses despite its supposed "archaism."
In conclusion, the Moscow-based analysis suggests that the Ayatollah regime remains relatively stable despite pro-regime demonstrations often being orchestrated by state structures. While acknowledging that widespread agent infiltration points to failures in Iranian security and systemic dogmatism, the overall assessment from this Russian perspective is one of caution. It is, as Asatryan states, "too early to conclude" in what is still considered the early phase of this intensified conflict.
Map: Wikipedia Commons