As the specter of conflict looms over the Middle East with the approaching sixth round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the United States, the intricate web of regional tensions continues to unravel. In a recent episode of the "Kuş Bakışı" (Bird's Eye View) program on the Alan YouTube channel, hosted by Gökçe Çiçek Köşedağı, Turkish academic and international relations expert Soli Özel delivered a piercing critique of the current geopolitical landscape. Central to his analysis was a stark observation: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government prioritizes political survival above all, exploiting regional tensions to shore up its precarious domestic standing. This provocative insight casts a shadow over the already fragile prospects for peace as global powers grapple with the risk of escalation in an increasingly volatile region.
Özel began by situating the current standoff within the historical context of the 2015 nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He highlighted the fallout from the United States' unilateral withdrawal in 2018 under the Trump administration, which prompted Iran to surpass uranium enrichment limits, as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While European signatories uphold the deal's validity and caution against "snapback" sanctions if Iran remains non-compliant, Özel emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the agreement's legal framework and Europe's pressing desire for resolution.
Delving into the motivations of key players, Özel painted a fragmented picture of competing agendas. In the United States, policy debates oscillate between halting Iran's uranium enrichment entirely and permitting a limited threshold of 3.67%, with former President Donald Trump's erratic positioning adding to the ambiguity. Israel, though not a signatory to the JCPOA, emerges as a pivotal force, with its hawkish leadership seemingly prepared to strike Iran unilaterally. Özel suggested that Israel might anticipate a retaliatory response from Iran, potentially dragging the US into conflict—a scenario the US military and Trump appear keen to avoid.
Özel's most striking commentary centered on Netanyahu's administration, which he argued is driven primarily by a desperate bid for political survival. Facing domestic challenges and waning public support amid protracted conflicts like Gaza, the Israeli government, according to Özel, leverages regional crises to deflect criticism and consolidate power. This calculated exploitation of tensions, he warned, heightens the risk of missteps that could ignite a broader conflagration.
He also noted the critical timing of upcoming diplomatic engagements, including a planned meeting between a US special representative and the Iranian Foreign Ministry. Should this dialogue proceed, military action might be delayed, although Özel urged caution, given the unpredictability of key figures such as Netanyahu and Trump. Additionally, he expressed curiosity about the positions of Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, which reportedly opposes an Israeli strike on Iran, lamenting the scarcity of transparent Western reporting on these perspectives.
In conclusion, Özel offered a cautiously optimistic view that diplomatic efforts might temporarily avert conflict, yet he underscored the ever-present danger of abrupt policy shifts by volatile leaders. His analysis, particularly his critique of Netanyahu's politically motivated brinkmanship, serves as a sobering reminder of the delicate balance between diplomacy and disaster in a region teetering on the edge. As the world holds its breath, the interplay of power and survival continues to shape the Middle East's uncertain future.