According to political scientist Andrei Kortunov, writing in Kommersant, the recent flare-up, if humanitarian concerns are set aside, could prove "to some extent even beneficial to Russia." Kortunov, a respected voice in Russian foreign policy circles, posits that any significant escalation in the Middle East is likely to drive up global hydrocarbon prices. "The larger the hostilities - and they may even include the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Tehran - the higher the global demand for Russian oil and gas will be," he argued, highlighting a direct economic upside for Moscow.
Beyond energy markets, Kortunov believes the conflict serves another key Russian interest: diverting Western attention and resources. "Any Middle East escalation distracts the attention of Moscow's opponents from the Ukrainian topic, changes the priorities of Western military assistance programs," he stated. Furthermore, he predicts such a crisis would likely exacerbate "disagreements on the Middle East agenda between the United States and its European allies, which again meets the interests of Russia." Theoretically, Kortunov also suggests that Russia, leveraging its allied relations with Tehran, could position itself as an "impartial mediator," thereby bolstering its regional influence.
However, this cynical calculus is not without significant risks and potential downsides for Moscow. Kortunov points out Russia's conspicuous failure to prevent a major Israeli strike on Iran, a nation with which Moscow signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement just five months prior. "Moscow is not ready, not limited to political statements condemning Israel's actions, also to provide Iran with military assistance," he observed, highlighting a potential credibility gap.
The escalating situation also threatens to complicate Russia's already fraught dialogue with the United States. While Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned the Israeli action, former U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly supported it, creating potential friction points. "It remains to be hoped that the differences in the assessments of Israel's actions will not provoke an acute crisis in Russian-American relations," Kortunov commented.
In the long term, the risks could intensify if Israel's strategic aim extends to regime change in Tehran, a goal Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu articulated in an address to the Iranian people on June 14. "Such a prospect is fraught with a new threat to the Kremlin," Kortunov warned, "as a change in the political orientation of the current Iranian government if it ever happens, may make Tehran less favorable to Moscow."
Despite this concern, Kortunov views Israel's objective of toppling the Iranian regime as "unattainable" through external force. He suggests that any such fall would more likely stem from "deepening contradictions and conflicts within the ruling elite and society." Paradoxically, he concluded, "Israel's actions at this stage will only contribute to the consolidation of power and society" within Iran, a dynamic Moscow will undoubtedly continue to monitor with keen, if cynical, interest.
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