According to the Lebanese daily L’Orient-Le Jour, “Khamenei wanted to save his skin, to the great dismay of Iranians. Between ‘unconditional’ capitulation and suicide, the Iranian regime chose a third path to save what remains of its power ‘in ruins.’ Tehran could emerge considerably weakened from this war, but none of the scenarios suggest a democratization project.”
The strikes, authorized by President Trump as part of his administration’s maximum pressure campaign, have dealt a severe blow to Iran’s nuclear program, setting it back by what analysts estimate could be decades. The 86-year-old Khamenei, who has spent thirty years building his absolute authority over the Islamic Republic and its regional network, faced what observers describe as the most challenging week of his political life.
A Calculated Response
Iran’s response to the American strikes was notably restrained—a single attack on a U.S. base in Qatar, which sources suggest Washington was warned about in advance. This symbolic gesture allowed the regime to maintain its rhetoric of resistance while avoiding a full-scale confrontation that could lead to its destruction.
“Ali Khamenei is a cautious man. Strong with the weak but weak with the strong,” noted Middle East analyst Sarah Henderson. “Nothing is more important to him than the survival of the regime.”
The Supreme Leader’s strategy appears to be betting on the long term, hoping that the Islamic Republic can weather this storm and rebuild its capabilities over the coming decades. This approach has proven effective in the past, as Iran survived the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020 and the recent decimation of Hezbollah, long considered the crown jewel of Iran’s regional proxy network.
The Iranian People Pay the Price
While the regime may survive this crisis, experts warn that the Iranian people will bear the heaviest burden. The government is expected to intensify its domestic repression to maintain control, following a pattern similar to Saddam Hussein’s Iraq after the first Gulf War.
“The regime can emerge considerably weakened from this war, but with a security apparatus that remains sufficiently strong to crush any form of dissent, at least in the short and medium term,” said Dr. Michael Roth, a specialist in Iranian affairs at Georgetown University.
An Uncertain Future
The ceasefire negotiations, reportedly facilitated by Qatar, may provide President Trump with the quick resolution he seeks to the conflict. However, questions remain about whether Israel will accept an arrangement that merely delays the Iranian nuclear threat rather than eliminating it.
Despite talk in Washington and Tel Aviv about democratization and regime change, the reality on the ground suggests a different outcome. The Syrian example serves as a sobering reminder of how long it can take to topple a repressive regime and the difficulties in stabilizing a country afterward.
As the dust settles on this latest confrontation, one thing remains clear. While the Islamic Republic may emerge weakened but intact, the Iranian people’s aspirations for freedom and democracy remain as distant as ever.
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